AL West Preview part 2

3rd place. Texas Rangers (83-79)
I will revisit this 3rd place prediction if the Rangers sign Ben Sheets (3.09 era, 1.15 whip, 198.1 IP), but as of now I will assess them based upon the team they have. The Rangers won 79 games last year and had the feelgood story in all of baseball. Josh Hamilton played gold glove caliber defense, has a top tier arm, and of course, pounded the ball (304 ba, 32 hrs, 130 rbis). They also had one of the best hitting second baseman in the majors in Ian Kinsler (319 BA, 102 runs, 26 sbs), who had awesome numbers even though he missed the last quarter of the year with a sports hernia. The Rangers did lose a big bat in Milton Bradley (321 ba, 436 obp, 22 hrs), but he will be replaced by a top tier minor league talent in Nelson Cruz, who the Rangers will bat cleanup and believe should hit 25+hrs in his first full year. The Rangers minor leagues are loaded, and Chris Davis(285 ba, 17 hrs) will have his first full season at first base and should be good for 30 homers himself. Michael Young has moved from SS to 3b to make way for top prospect Elvis Andrus, a plus defender in the minors, and the Rangers infield defense should be better this year than last. Hank Blalock (287 ba, 12 hrs, 65 games) will shift to DH and, if he can stay healthy, should be a major bat. As usual though, their season will come down to their starters and pen. The Rangers have veteran mediocre starters in Kevin Millwood (9-10, 5.07 era) and Vicente Padilla (14-8 , 4.74 era), along with youngsters Matt Harrison (9-3, 5.49 era) and Scott Feldman (6-8, 5.29 era). Due to the hitters park they pitch in and the heat of Texas summers, Rangers starters are generally 5-6 inning guys, at most, so the bullpen is always a major factor for the team. The Rangers expect their pen to be a lot stronger this year for several reasons. The young pen has another year under their belts, and a few of the relievers seem to have turned a corner towards the end of last year. Righty Frank Francisco (3.13 era, 1.15 whip 83k's in 63 ip) will probably take over closer duties very early in the year, if not in spring training, unless lefty 2008 closer CJ Wilson can regain some ability to get hitters out (268 baa, 31 er/ 46 ip). Joaquin Benoit is very good at striking batters out 43k's, 45 ip) but his command offsets that (35 walks). So once again, the Rangers should have a top 3 offense and bottom 5 staff but the full seasons by Blalock, Davis, and Kinsler should translate to a few more wins, and the AAA talent will be called upby september, putting Texas in line for a huge 2010.

4th place, Seattle Mariners (64-98)
Its a shame such a beautiful city and baseball stadium are occupied by such an incredibly weak offense. The Mariners lost their most productive hitter, Raul Ibanez (293 ba, 23 hrs, 110 rbis), to the Phillies, and replaced him with Wladimir Balentin, a career 207 hitter with 8 hrs in 246 career AB's. They added Franklin Gutierrez (248 ba, 8 hrs) from the Indians to play CF, but to expect even 200 rbis out of this outfield, which includes an off year Ichiro (311 ba, 361 obp) in right, could be a stretch. With limited power, an inability to get on base, and almost no track record, this outfield could be the majors least productive, by far. The infield isnt much better, Adrian Beltre (327 obp, 25 hrs. 77 rbis) still has a great glove and arm, but it's clear he will never realize what the Mariners expected when they signed him to the monster deal prior to the 2005 season. Good news comes from second baseman Jose Lopez (297 ba, 17 hrs, 89rbis, 80 runs) who had a breakout year, but the same cannot be said of SS Yuniesky Betancourt (300 obp, 7 hrs) who was completely and utterly unproductive at the plate. The Mariners are a sure bet to score the least runs in the AL this season, which puts immense pressure on a staff with talent in a few starters, but nobody to finish games. Once again anchored by immensley talented but always mercurial and moody righty Felix Hernandez (9-11. 3.45era, 1.39 whip). This could be the breakout year the team expects, as Hernandez has the ability to be an All Star for the next decade. His inability to control his emotions leads to far too many multi-hit innings however, and he has to fix that for this team to have a remote chance to finish near 75 wins. Similarly talented but oft-injured lefty Erik Bedard (6-4, 3.67era, 72 ks/81 ip) closes out what could be as good a 1-2 punch as the AL has. Bedard has one season above 30 starts and is a good bet to be hurt again. If healthy there are very few lefties as talented in the league. Young righty Brandon Morrow (3.34 era, 75k/64 ip) could be the biggest bright spot on the team though, and has the talent to give the Mariners yet another possible number one starter. The bullpen could be a problem, losing JJ Putz (55 saves since 2007, 337 ks/ 322 ip career), and replacing him with, gulp, Aaron Heilman (3-8, 5.21 era with the Mets in 08). Heilman has never shown himself to have the mentality to close games, and Putz was made to close games, and also the clubhouse leader. If/when Heilman falters, Mark Lowe could be ready to fulfill his pre-injury potential (1.93 era, 20ks/18 ip in 2006). Save for Lowe, the team has no other option to replace Heilman if a problem should arise. So the top of the rotation may have to throw an awful lot of complete games if they intend to win. The problem is, with Hernandez' pitch count and Bedard's health, complete games will come rarely from this staff. The Mariners need to figure out an identity, and they are miles away from being a .500 team, this is going to be a tough year.