A few bold Player Projections for 2k9

1. Andre Ethier, RF, Dodgers: Batting behind (or in front of, or below, or sideways ) Manny Ramirez is going to improve your numbers, it has done so for every player who ever played with him. The Dodgers' rightfielder has seen his numbers rise for 3 consecutive years already, in homers (11 in 06, 13 in 07, 20 in 08), in RBI's (55,64, 77), in doubles (20,32,38), and in walks as well (34,36,59). I expect him to hit close to 25 homers this year, with an OBP above both his career average (366) and his career high (375). Even though his high in RBI's was 77, with Ramirez, Furcal, and Hudson (who benefits equally as much batting 2nd in the lineup) batting in front of him, he will top 90 this season. I expect a batting average above .290 as well, likely topping .300. He has an outside chance at being selected as a reserve all-star because I expect the Dodgers to have the best record in the NL or close to it, all year long. There is simply no way he doesn't exceed his 2008 totals in every single category, if only because the men batting in front of him will all have monster years.


2. David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox: This will be the first year Ortiz will spend in Boston without Ramirez' protection behind him. He was on a downward trajectory even with Ramirez batting behind him (due to injury, age, and possibly weight-related issues). His homerun totals have dropped (from 54, 35, 23) demonstrably, though he did play a shorter season last year, because of wrist problems. It's not very fair to judge last years stats as the sole downward indicators, due to playing only 109 games. However, his OBP, Slugging, and Batting Average were all down quite a bit last year, even before the injury, so I will go off of those rather than his totals. I will project Ortiz to finish hitting around .285, under 30 homers, and less than 110 RBI's. Granted those are gaudy totals to begin with, but with the hitters ballpark he plays in, and the lineup surrounding him, he should put up better numbers, if were anywhere near his prime. I do not believe he is, and I feel the numbers bear it out.

3. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Rangers: While the Rangers seem to swing at everything, and abhor defense and basic fundamentals, Kinsler is their biggest exception. He is a good defender, and arguably the best hitting second baseman in the AL. His OBP has risen every year (347, 355, 375), he gets on base and scores runs (65,96,102) and he steals bases more effectively than anyone in baseball (11 stolenbases/4caught stealing in 06, 23/2 in 07, 26/2 in 08). The only problem is that he has yet to play 150 games. He has been unlucky (a hernia in 08 for example) and has therefore been limited to around 120-130 games per year. If he can play 155+ this year, I expect possibly the biggest all around offensive season in the AL. I project a 320 average, 25 homers, 120+ runs, 35+ sbs, and an OBP topping 390. With the ballpark they play in, and the hitters surrounding him, he may also have a shot at 80+ RBI's out of the leadoff spot, which is a very impressive stat in itself. Now, about that pitching....

4. Matt Holliday,LF, A's : The best outfielder ever produced by the Rockies' system is also the biggest beneficiary of his former club's ballpark. He has possibly the biggest differential between home-to-road splits of any player in baseball that I can recall. A career .356 hitter at Coors field, with 84 homers, a .642 SLG%, and a 1.064 OPS, he was as valuable as any hitter in baseball, when he played in Denver. Outside of Coors is another story though. He hit .279 , with 44 hrs, .798 OPS, and .453 SLG%. Keep in mind he played 365 home games and 343 away games. His away numbers are still good, but hardly top tier, and probably not even an all star. He goes from the best hitters park in the NL to the worst hitters park in the AL. Add to that , of course, that the A's surrounding him are not very productive to begin with, and a HUGE fall-off is projected. I don't think he will sniff his career average of .318, in fact, i think he will be fairly lucky to get within 20 points of that number. It's certain he won't come near his career high of 36 homers, I will project him to max out near 25. And, in no small part due to Oakland's lineup, 100 RBI's would be pretty impressive. The guy is a good player, but he has a long way to go to prove that he is near stardom outside of Colorado.