I am a believer that when the regular season ends, the Cubs win the NL Central. Milwaukee has no pitching (outside of Yovani Gallardo), the Cardinals have no hitting (outside of Albert Pujols), and the Cubs are just 2.5 GB without their best hitter for the last 6 weeks. They have not hit a lick all year: Alfonso Soriano is hitting very near the Mendoza line (227 BA, 14 hrs, 7 sbs), Milton Bradley is even worse (247, 5 hrs and just 16 RBI's), and Derek Lee had just 5 hrs going into June. None of those players are that bad. They are all on the downside, and it remains to be seen how far along the curve they are, but they are not going to fall off as much as they have shown. They should all be in for huge second halves, especially Soriano. Once Aramis Ramirez returns, they instantly add a top 3 hitting 3b in the NL, and probably 15 hrs comes with him.
The bullpen has been massively overworked, as Lou Pinella's pens often are. Carlos Marmol has pitched in more than half the Cubs games (35 games, 32 innings), Kevin Gregg has done the same (33 games, 32 innings), both are on pace to supplant their career highs for appearances and innings. This is becoming a problem, particularly because Rich Harden has been so bad as a starter, he is a 3-5 inning pitcher this year. Luckily, Ted Lilly , Ryan Dempster, and Carlos Zambrano have been innings eaters, with each pitcher averaging close to 7IP per start.
I see no reason why the pitching would not hold up, none of the starters are doing naything out of the ordinary, and Harden (if healthy, as if) should improve dramatically. Assuming the bullpen's arms dont fall off, and frankly, it's a rather big assumption, the Cubs should be in for a big second half, even if they don't make a trade for another OF.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
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