Friday, July 24, 2009

Effects of the Matt Holliday to STL deal.

Well, just a day or two after my NL Central updates,the Cardinals went and changed everything.
They added the number one available bat in Oakland's LF Matt Holliday. Granted, Holliday has not had much of a year to write about, until the last week, during which he netted 3 of his 11 homers, 11 of his 54 RBI's, 4 of his 23 doubles, and a few steals as well. Essentially the week of July 16-23 has given him about 25-30% of his production this season. None of this matters I suppose, who cares how he gets to 25 homers as long as he does so, but my point was illustrating that he had done very very little on the year until recently. Nevertheless, this changes the divisional dynamics quite a bit.
I no longer expect the Cubs to win the Central, in fact I dont even think they will make the playoffs. I will stick to the Rockies winning the Wild Card but I will flip-flop my top two in the NL Central, pushing the Cards about 3 games ahead of the Cubbies. I think Holliday should produce enough, and his prescence will also help maintain Albert Pujols' numbers. It is important to note that Holliday goes from the most extreme pitchers' park in the league, to a pretty decent hitters park. He will now hit behind the best player in baseball, as opposed to the mediocrity the A's have been putting out everyday. He will be protected by near All-Stars in Mark DeRosa and Ryan Ludwick which will push his run totals up a bunch as well.
I will not be suprised if he exceeds his Oakland totals (286 BA, 454 Slug, 11hrs, 54 rbis, 52 runs, and 12 sbs, 95 games) in 70 games. He will also have the added motivation, I suppose, of the playoff and possible World Series run, and of course his impending Free Agency.
This move pushes Rick Ankiel into a platoon role, at best. Ankiel is a plus defender, a minus hitter, but as a 4th outfielder, the depth he adds will be very significant. To have a decent starter on the bench, available to play any of the OF spots with top tier defense is a plus. He will often be a late inning replacement for RF Ryan Ludwick, will give Holliday and CF Colby Rasmus the occasional day off against righties, and provide valuable insurance as a left-handed bat off the bench.
The Cards now have all the pieces to go to the World Series again. In righties Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, they have two of the top 10 pitchers in the NL. In Holliday, Pujols, DeRosa, and Ludwick, they have the best right-handed hitting in the NL. Their bullpen has overperformed, as closer Ryan Franklin is not going to maintain a 1.25 ERA unless he made a deal with Satan himself. Perhaps he did. It's something I would look into, if I have a chance. They have the best pitching in the NL Central now, and have all year. They may even have the best pitching in the NL, including the bullpen. Now they have an offense to compete with LA and Philly. I expect those three teams to battle it out for the NL title. If the Wild Card comes from Colorado, the Phillies benefit most of all, because the Dodgers would then be forced to play STL in round one, leaving the Rockies to the Phils. If the Cubs or Houston somehow make the playoffs, the Dodgers would get an easy ride into the NLCS. And if the Braves make the playoffs, the Phils and Cards would battle it out while LA would play ATL. So this trade changes things a ton. I will not be suprised if STL goes to the series. Philly now needs to go grab Roy Halladay, and fast!

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