Updated NL Central Predictions

1. Cubs (85-77). This is by far the hardest division for me to forecast, given how there are 4 teams within about 3 games as of today. Each team has such glaring strengths and weaknesses that just about anything could happen. The Cubs have managed to hang around for 2 months without their best hitter (3b Aramis Ramirez). They have weathered the high 4 ERA of supposed ace starter Rich Harden. They have withstood a horrid first half for LF Alfonso Soriano (233 BA, 298 OBP). They have waited around all year for offseason mistake of the millenium Milton Bradley to do anything at all (238, 6 hrs, 21 RBI's). And still they are only 2 games back of STL. They just have too much talent for this to continue. The rest of the central has been mediocre, at best, allowing the Cubs to waitfor everything to come around. Starting out the second half at 5-2 is the first step, and if they can get improvements out of just two of their many injured or underperformers, they should win the division, though not easily.

2. St Louis. 84-78. It could very easily come down to the last week, and probably will. Anytime that happens, the second place team has a very good chance to win the division. Everything went right for STL in the first half. A huge season from Albert Pujols is always expected, and as usual he delivered. Righty Chris Carpenter has bounced back from injuries to lead the NL in ERA (2.2) and whip (.88). I dont know if that can continue. 8 wins and a 3 ERA from number 3 starter Joel Pineiro is also a big bonus. The most unexpected of all is closer Ryan Franklin, with a sub 1 ERA and whip, and 22 saves to validate his All-Star selection, he has been the biggest end of the bullpen shocker in the NL this season. There is simply no way a pitcher with a lifetime 265 BAA can maintain a 160 BAA. I suppose its possible, but I would not bank on it. Granted, the Cards added a solid right-handed bat in utility mega-stud Mark DeRosa, and he will add a lot to the lineup, so winning the division is very very possible. They have better starting pitching than the Cubs, it could be argued, though not as much depth. I suppose this is a toss-up between these two squads, and I am merely going with the underperformer to get back to the mean, rather than the overperformer continuing the run. Neither team will surprise me, regardless of the outcome.

3. Milwaukee 81-81. They have a few great hitters in Prince Fielder (313, 24 hr, 86 RBI's) and loudmouth LF Ryan Braun (306, 17, 60) , but beyond that, there is little to rely on. They have average, at best, pitching. Their stud pitcher is 8-7 with a 3.28 ERA (Yovani Gallardo) and seems to be tiring with each start. Their next 3 starters are averaging about 5 wins and a 5 ERA to go with them (Jeff Suppan, Braden Looper, and Manny Parra). Their pen has been a bright spot with lefty/righty combo Mitch Stetter and Todd Coffey and their dueling 2.64 ERA's. Closer Trevor Hoffman has been brilliant with 22 saves and a 1.91 ERA. But there is somehting missing on this team. Namely, starters. Very subpar pitching combined with slightly above average offense does not add up to much more than a 500 record and that is what you will get with this team.

4. Houston 80-82. A lot better than I thought they would be, and I am not quite sure how. They have a bad offense and not much beyond their two stud pitchers (Roy Oswalt and lefty Wandy Rodriguez). Lance Berkman is having a down year at 270 with 18 jacks and on pace for less than 90 RBI's for just the second time in a full season in his career. OF Carlos Lee is doing what he always does, hit 300 with 25 bombs and 100 RBI's. SS Miguel Tejada is having a nice bounceback year with a 325 average and a 50 doubles pace. I dont know how a team is in contention given that they are rolling Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz out to start 2 out of every 5 days. yet here they are, just 3 games back. I expect them to fold up, sooner or later, though their track record every year post ASB shows otherwise. I put no stock into that trend however, and feel that Wandy in particular is a good candidate to regress, given his current ERA of 2.72 and his career ERA of 4.42. It should end somewhere in between I would presume. If Berkman is hurt, and he may be given his numbers, this team will not be able to hang around much longer, because he is by far thir best hitter, and a top 10 hitter in the NL, if not all of baseball. This team is smoke and mirrors, and it will reveal itself in August or, at worst, September.

5. Cincinatti 74-88. They have 2 hitters who are not worthless : 1b Joey Votto (345 BA, 13 hrs, 430OBP) and 2b Brandon Phillips ( who should net 20+ hrs and sb's as he always does). Beyond that, they made one of the worst off-season moves in baseball by signing CF Wily Taveras (246 BA, 287 OBP) and then allowing him to lead off everyday. He is worthless and always has been. At the very least, madman manager and King of Morons Dusty Baker should bat Taveras 7th or 8th and let him run wild. They are also starting Chris Dickerson (15 XBH's in 81 games) everyday, even though he is a 5th outfielder on his good days, and AAAA player on his worst. RF Jay Bruce, pre-injury,was on pace for 30 hrs to go with his 220 BA, but he is young and they can let him develop. Their pen has been top 10 in the league, as it was last year, but with an offense that scores less than 4 runs per game, there is little need for lead protection. Johnny Cueto has been good (3.67 ERA, 1.27 WHIP ) in just his second year, and will only get better, so thats a plus. But Edison Volquez has once again been hurt and cannot seem to stay healthy for very long, ever. If this team is ever going to improve, they will need to stop starting players like Taveras, SS Jerry Hairston, and they will need to figure out which direction they are going. They send out 5-6 dead bats out every game, and hope that the pitchers throw shutouts in front of them. The GM and manager should be fired (GM for signing Taveras and MGR for playing him) and go from there. This team is hopeless.

6. Pittsburgh 72-90. Well, at least they try. The front office deals everyone, every year. From Jason Bay in 08 to Nate McLouth and Adam LaRoche in 09. My guess is they are not even yet done dealing. I feel bad for the players who stick around, they see everyone around them leave. Thsi team has dealt some good players too. They are giving all their young kids a look, and thats fine, but all the front office ends up doing is dealing them once the bills come due. Offensive bright spots include Garrett Jones and Andrew McCutcheon but not much else. Pitching bright spots include All-star Zach Duke and that about covers this shitty team.