2010 AL West Preview

1st place: LA Angels (85-77)
keys to success: Ervin Santana, Joel Pineiro, Scott Kazmir

With the loss of team ace John Lackey, a workhorse for nearly a decade, the onus falls on Jered Weaver to fill his shoes. I really have little doubt he will, therefor the onus has moved. I think the new acquisition of Pineiro is huge. Was his 2009 STL season a fluke? Did he turn the corner? Was it Dave Duncan's stewardship? I would be shocked if he wins 16+ games this year, and doubly shocked if he maintains an ERA under 4. But he will be solid, and probably not a problem. Scott Kazmir is another story. At this point it is very difficult to know which Kazmir will show up. He has gotten progressively worse each year in the majors, his fastball is losing movement and speed, and his walks are not declining. Perhaps a full year out of the Yanks/Redsox division will help, perhaps not. Also, Ervin Santana is coming off a dismal year, although we know he was not healthy, he will need to bounce back for them to win it this year.
The bullpen added Fernando Rodney from Detroit, and he is not bad, but the end of game situations with Brian Fuentes and Rodney is going to have some ups and downs, no doubt.
The offense will be fine, probably third best in the AL again, and getting better. They lost Vlad Guerrero, but the addition of Hideki Matsui will mitigate that subtraction. A bigger hole to fill is 3b Chone Figgins, the gold-glove caliber leadoff hitter who steals bases, ignites rallies, lays down bunts, and pretty much does it all. Will Brandon Wood be able to handle the hot corner? This division should be tight, but the Angels have the experience and less healthy issues than the Rangers, so they should end on top.

2. Texas Rangers (81-81)
keys to success: LF Josh Hamilton, DH Vlad Guerrero, SP Rich Harden.

The Rangers paid Harden $10 million dollars, coming off his worst year, a 4+ ERA season in the NL. Will he ever be healthy? Will he ever pitch 200 innings? Will he ever fulfill the promise that made everyone think he was the next stud starter? Probably not, and this is going to be a problem for the Rangers. When you sign an ace and have your fingers crossed that he will even be available to make 25 starts, you are in trouble before it even begins.
The two best hitters on the team, Hamilton and Guerrero, may not even combine to play 220 games (they did not last year), and that's two more question marks for the team. The Rangers have a fantastic minor leagues, they have two of baseball's biggest prospects in lefty Derek Holland and righty Neftali Feliz, and I suppose those two could step up and fill the void that will invariably follow Hardens mid-May (or sooner) injury. The Rangers rotation in 2009 was suprisingly solid , carrying a fairly mediocre offense for most of the year. The three big keys to their 09 success were defense (top 5 in the majors and improving with the move from CF to LF for Hamilton and the maturity of top tier SS Elvis Andrus), bullpen (the Rangers got major contributions from CJ Wilson, Franky Francisco, Darren O'Day, and Feliz), and simply cutting down on walks. The Rangers pitchers trimmed over a walk per game off their ledger and this allowed them to go deeper into games, averaging almost an inning more per start than in 08 (which also saved the pen). The Rangers could surely win the division, but they will need their best players to stay healthy, something neither Hamilton or Harden have done even once in their careers.

3. Seattle Mariners (79-83)
keys to success: bullpen, 3rd,4th,5ht starters

Well, we know they cannot hit, and that won't change much for 2010. They have a great top 2 in the order in Ichiro and Figgins, a solid #3 in Franklin Gutierrez, and a pretty giant question-mark in DH/dickhead Milton Bradley. They will have 5 other spots (6 when Bradley gets hurt or cut from the team for killing a fan in late June) that will produce very little. This is all fine and dandy if the bullpen is as good as last year, when it was possibly the best in baseball, but if David Aardsma falls off, and we have no idea what to expect, they are in trouble.
The M's have the two best pitchers in the AL in righty Felix Hernandez and lefty Cliff Lee, but they have nothing after that, literally nothing. So again, it will be up to baseball's best defense (with 4 or 5 potential gold glovers) to save runs where they can. The Mariners were a 500 team last year even though they were outscored by 50 runs, this was due to a single reason, defense. Their defense was led by the best CF in the game in Gutierrez, the best RF in the game in Ichiro, the best SS in the game in Jack Wilson. They added Chone Figgins and moved him to 2b, added Casey Kotchman at 1b, and moved Jose Lopez to 3b. There is no reason to think the defense will be anything but the best again. And it will have to be, because there's is one of the worst offenses, if not the worst (outside of KC), in the American League. I will be very suprised if they win the division.

4. Oakland A's (77-85)
keys to success: healthy pitching staff

Well, the A's found a little bit of pocket change and used it on Ben Sheets, basically a slightly older version of Rich Harden. He will probably be hurt sooner or later, and if he isn't , he will be dealt. The A's have some of the best young pitching in baseball with starters Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill. They have a great young closer in Andrew Bailey, and the rest of their pen is loaded with great spot relievers. The problem is they are an NL team playing in the AL. They just cant score runs. They do not have a single plus offensive player anywhere on the roster. They have a great defensive outfield, loaded with speed, with Rajai Davis, Coco Crisp, and Ryan Sweeney, but none of those guys will drive in 80 runs or hit 300. They will need to steal bases, and Davis and Crisp should be up to the task. Davis may need to steal 80 to give them a shot at 500.
Cliff Pennington is a solid glove but a zero bat, same with 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, and the team is just flat out boring. No homer threat, no doubles threat, no fans at the park. They will need to relocate the team to have a shot at future success, plain and simple.