2010 NL Central Preview

1st. St Louis Cardinals (90-72)
keys to success: bullpen, health of Chris Carpenter.

Well the Cards have the best player in baseball, 1b Albert Pujols. They have a young and rising star in CF Colby Rasmus, and they have a top tier offensive outfielder in Matt Holliday. After that, the hitting is fairly thin. Its hard to know exactly what to expect from RF Ryan Ludwick, but assume he can be penciled in for 270, 20 hrs, and 85 RBI's. The key to the team is going to be the health of the top 2 starters, who are also 2 of the top 3 in last year's Cy Young voting: Adam Wainwright and Carpenter. Wainwright is always healthy, so there is little room for concern, but Carpenter is another story. He misses starts every year, and even seems to miss larger chunks every other season. Assuming he is good for 30 starts, they should again win the division easily.
The team added Brad Penny as a #4 starter, who is an upgrade from the garbage they threw out last year (Todd Wellermeyer). If he can make it to 10-12 wins, this team should be even better than I expect. I dont think they have what it takes to make it out of the NL, because they simply cannot hit like the Phils, but you never know.
The biggest problem for me is that they just have no closer. Ryan Franklin is garbage, last year aside, he is not even close to a major league closer. He has no plus pitches, he is insanely lucky, and he cannot really strike batters out. At some point this year, Tony LaRussa will have to make a decision about the future of this pen, the sooner the better.
What will be most interesting about this season for STL is the potential rise of the youngsters: Rasmus, SS Brendan Ryan, 2b Skip Schumaker, and 3b David Freese. If 2 of these guys surpass last year's numbers, STL will have an offense to reckon with. Right now, the Cards essentially have 2 big bats and a bunch of mediocrity surrounding them, luckily the division is awful.

2nd. Milwaukee Brewers (82-80)
keys to the team: bullpen, starters Randy Wolf and Dave Bush

The Brewers have two of the best hitters in the NL, if not baseball, in 1b Prince Fielder and LF Ryan Braun. They have potentially above average players in oft-injured 2b Rickie Weeks and CF Carlos Gomez. They have above established above average players in RF Corey Hart and 3b Casey McGehee. They dumped worthless catcher Jason Kendall and added decent hitting Gregg Zaun. They have the best offense in the division for certain, and it may even be better this year then last. The problem, as always, is defense and pitching. They have a stud ace in Yovani Gallardo, and an established #2 in lefty Randy Wolf, and...... that's it. Jeff Suppan is Jeff Suppan, good for a high 4 ERA with 10 wins, same as Doug Davis. So the pressure falls to Dave Bush, who had an awful 2009. He moved from starter to pen and back last year, was hurt off and on, and never showed much of the promise he had shown in prior years. If he can regain the fastball and change he had in 08 and 06, then maybe the team can get into the mid 80's in wins.
Another big problem is the bullpen. While closer Trevor Hoffman seems to be fine, and will probably be fine into his 50's ( he is already over 40), the rest of the pen is far from established. LaTroy Hawkins can be good, and not so good. Exactly the same can be said of Todd Coffey, David Riske, Mitch Stetter, and on and on. For this team to have any chance of contending, Bush and the pen will have to step up and establish an order, and do so by June at the latest.

3rd. Chicago Cubs 81-81
keys to the team: health of older hitters , closer Carlos Marmol.

2009 was a giant disaster. Coming off a huge 08, the team thought 09 would be even better, adding Milton Bradley and second year star Giovanny Soto's sophomore season. Well, every single thing that could go wrong did. 3b Aramis Ramirez tore up his shoulder in late May, missing a lot of time and never regaining his strength upon return. LF Alfonso Soriano had his worst season ever, hitting, defense, and power were all sub par for his position, much less for a star of his magnitude. Soto completely fell off the map, and didnt come close to duplicating his rookie year. The pen was a disaster, closer Kevin Gregg blew save after save. Starting pitching wasnt very good, Rich Harden had a high 4 ERA and #1 starter Carlos Zambrano did not even break 10 wins. Well, 2010 will not be much better. The stars are getting older, Derek Lee is now entering his high 30's, and although he had a great 2009 second half, it will not continue. Ramirez is still great, though it remains to be see if he is completely back from the shoulder separation. Soriano will have to lift his average at least 20 points for this team to have any chance at the division, Soto will have to club 20 hr's, and new acquisition CF Marlon Byrd will have to settle in as team leader, like he was for the Rangers last year. Byrd will improve the defense quite a bit, moving Kosuke Fukodome to RF where he is exceptional compared to other NL RF's.
The bullpen will have a new leader in closer Marmol, who has always had the stuff, if not the mentality, to be a top 10 closer. This is a guy who can strike out 2 batters per inning if he is on his game, but he often walks just as many. IF he can cut his walks down by at least 50%, and curb his meltdowns, than the team has a shot. They have solid enough starting pitching, with lefty Ted Lilly and righty Ryan Dempster, neither of whom are bad at all. Righty Randy Wells and lefty Tom Gorzelanny leave much to be desired, but if the bullpen steps up, they can take some of the slack off the starters. The team probably will not contend in 2010, regardless.

4th. Cincinnati Reds 79-83.
keys to success: starters Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, and Edinson Volquez. Development of young studs CF Drew Stubbs, RF Jay Bruce.

Everyone's sleeper pick to win the division is the Reds. I hate to break it to them, but this team has no chance. While they have a top tier bullpen and defense, they dont have any consistency at all from their starting pitchers and are not sure who they can count on offensively either.
Bronson Arroyo regularly posts 6+ first half ERA's, then turns it on when the division is far out of reach. Volquez probably wont be availble until May, and who knows what to expect from a guy coming off Tommy John surgery. Cueto has incredible first halves, then gets hurt and does nothing for 3 months. I am not sure what to expect from Bailey, though he has the potential to be a top tier starter, they say.
The defense will be stout. Scott Rolen is still a great 3b, Brandon Phillips is a great 2b, and Orlando Cabrera is a very good SS. Joey Votto is above average at 1b, Stubbs will be above average, as will Bruce. The defense and bullpen will have to carry the team because the pitching is below average. There are too many question marks on the offense to sustain 162 games, but the good news for the Reds is they are not to far off from being a contender, especially is this awful division.

5th Pittsburgh Pirates 72-90
keys to success: pitching, pen, and starting

Well, there is light at the end of the tunnel. It is still far off, but there is light. The team is loaded with young talent. CF Andrew McCutcheon is already a star, LF Lastings Milledge seems to have found his niche, and RF Greg Jones can rake. The team has a very good middle infield defensively, with additions SS Bobby Crosby and 2b Aki Iwamura. The offense wont be a huge problem, finally able to score some runs with this outfit. The starting pitching is absolutely key, with 5 youngsters: lefties Paul Maholm and Zack Duke, and righties Russ Ohlendorf, Charlie Morton and Kevin Hart. There is a lot of potential here, especially in the first three I listed. There is no chance this team contends this year, or even approaches 80 wins.
The bullpen is loaded with questions: closer Octavio Dotel has never risen to the occasion when named to end games. Joel Hanrahan is a converted starter, and castoff from the Nationals. If the Nats cast you off, you may not be very good. The rest of the pen consists of youngerts and castoffs so what they will produce is beyond anyone's guess.
This year will be a year to see what the starters can do, and what the young hitters can learn. Anything more is a bonus.


6th. Houston Astros 71-91.
keys to success: righty Bretty Myers,lefty Wandy Rodriguez, bullpen.

This team is boring, does not play defense, and has no pen. They suck every year and will suck this year also. They have 2 hitters in 1b Lance Berkman and insanely overrated LF Carlos Lee. RF Hunter Pence is not developing into a star, CF Michael Bourn is all field, no hit, and 3b Pedro Feliz is the same. Relievers Matt Lidstrom and Brandon Lyon are not closers, and not particularly good setup men either. Righties Bud Norris, Brian Moehler, and Brett Myers are below average starters, and Roy Oswalt is injured every single year. This team has no prospects, no exciting players outside of Wandy Rodriguez, who is a pretty top tier lefty in the NL at least. There is no reason to follow this team, they are lousy.