2010 AL East Preview

1st NY Yankees 98-64

keys to success: health.

There is no way this team does not make the playoffs. They spend 200 million a year buying the best players, so they ought to win the Series every year. And they probably will again. A top 3 pitching staff in the AL re-acquires top 5 2009 NL starter Javier Vazquez from Atlanta, dumps noodle-armed LF Johnny Damon, adds top tier CF Curtins Granderson, and moves Phil Hughes into the rotation. This team is better than 09, and we all know what happened 6 months ago.
The defense went from solid to top tier, by putting potential All-Star defender Brett Gardner to left, essentially giving them 2 centerfielders. They have the best closer of all time, and unless he gets hurt, and a bunch of others guys do too, they win the division again.
People seem to forget, the Yanks missed the playoffs one time in the last 15 years, the year they won 89 games (2008). That year they had Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson starting 2 out of every 5 games, a done Jason Giambi at first, and Hideki Matsui and Damon in the outfield. They have gone out and made their defense good enough to not lose games, and their offense is still the best in baseball, as it always is. They have 3 of the top 20 pitchers in baseball in CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Vazquez.
I suppose the only think keeping them from winning 110+ games are the questions about Hughes and what he gives as a starter, and subsequently takes away by leaving the 8th inning open in the pen. But really, beyond that, there just are not any doubts about this team.

2. Boston Red Sox 92-70
keys to success: health

Again, you spend $140 million, you better be good. And again, the Red Sox will be good. Arguably the best defense in baseball with the additions of gold glovers at 3b (Adrian Beltre), Mark Cameron (CF), and Marco Scutaro (SS). The rich get richer, as always in today's pro sports leagues. They will no longer have to worry about giving at bats to catcher Jason Varitek, as Victor Martinez has the full-time gig. He is the second best hitting catcher in baseball and , coupled with the middle infield of Pedroia and Scutaro, make up quite an offense/defense combo. 09 CF Jacoby Ellsbury moves to LF, giving them , like NY, two CF's playing daily.
Already with the second best 1-2 pitching combo in the AL (Josh Beckett/ Jon Lester), the Bosox helped themselves (and hurt a rival), by adding starter John Lackey from the Angels. The only team in baseball that can compete with the top of their rotation? You guessed it, the Yanks.
Boston will again make the playoffs, but as long as they rely on overrated Beckett as their number 1, they will fall short of the series, as usual.

3. Tampa Bay Rays 89-73
keys to success: Rafael Soriano, BJ Upton, development of younger arms

Everything went wrong for TB last year, and they were still one of the best teams in baseball. The pen was a disaster from day one, from Troy Percival to JP Howell, there was no rhyme or reason to who closed games. The team blew more leads than any team in baseball, and the defense fell from the best in the majors to nearly middle of the pack.
This year they will bounce back, but the division is so tough, they wont make the playoffs unless Boston falls back a bit.
CF Upton will have to bounce back from his 250, sub 10 homer season in 09, Jason Bartlett will have to bring back the best SS glove in baseball, and 1b Carlos Pen will need to do the same. LF Carl Crawford is already the best at his position, both on the base paths and in the field, and he is a guarantee to steal 50 bags and play gold glove d himself.
The questions do not loom so much with the offense, as 3b Evan Longoria has already established himself as the best in the game, and 2b Brent Zobrist isnt far off himself. The key will be Soriano's success at the end of games, and perhaps also the men who set-up in front of him. I believe Soriano will be fine, establishing himself as a top 5 closer in the AL, if not baseball.
This team can hit, they can play d, but what about pitching?
Well, last July they finally got fed up with mercurial lefty Scott Kazmir, so they dealt him to the Angels. So Matt Garza now has the opportunity to lead this staff, and he should be up to the task. The problem with Garza has always been concentration. He can throw 5 great innings and lose it completely in the 6th. Or have a horrid 2nd and then throw 6 more great innings. He never seems to have clean starts. Pretty much the same can be said about James Shields, though they are both very good, young pitchers.
The continued development of youngsters David Price, Jeff Niemann, and Wade Davis. If all three of those kids do what they are capable of, the Rays could win 93 games and the wild card.

4. Baltimore Orioles 75-87

keys to success: pitching pitching pitching

The offense is there and getting better. Young stars CF Adam Jones, Catcher Matty Wieters, and RF Nick Markakis are getting better yearly. The team can hit, there is no doubt about that. But who will pitch, both starting and closing?
The team signed lefty Mike Gonzalez from the Braves, and he will step in as closer on opening day. Following him are Jim Johnson and Cla Meredtih, both more than adequate set up men themselves. After that it gets dicey: Matt Albers and Mark Hendrickson are awful, both as starters and as relievers, so if the pen needs to give more than 2 innings, it may be in for some trouble.
The starters are adequate at best. The team added Kevin Millwood from Texas, and he will give htem 6 innings per start. He is no ace, far from it, but perhaps he can give them a boost, from a veteran standpoint at least. Jeremy Guthrie is underrated and coming off a terrible year, so hopefully he bounces back in 2010. Young lefty Brian Matusz will be a pitcher to follow, as some say he will be a star very soon. The development of starters Brad Bergeson and David Hernandez will also be key to the O's future. This team wont contend in 2010, but they are aiming for 2011 or 12. The division is so tough and rich, that it will be hard for anyone to compete with NY or Boston, but with the cheap young players Baltimore has, this season will be the best they have had in nearly a decade.

5. Toronto Blue Jays 66-86

keys to success: nothing can give this team 70 wins. they are toast

The Jays have tons of young pitching talent from the minors. Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch, not even mentioning the haul they got from dealing Roy Halladay to the Phils. Problem is, every young pitcher they have is hurt all the time. The bullpen is solid, with closer Justin Frasor, and relievers Scott Downs, Brian Tallet, even Kevin Gregg. But there will be no leads to protect, no games to save. With young starters (the only healthy ones anyhow) Ricky Romero and Brendon Morrow, I suppose eventual development is possible. But they wont give much production this year, for certain.
Offensively the team is mediocre, especially for the AL. CF Vernon Wells is a shell of what he was, new 3b Edwin Encarnacion swings at everything, 1b Lyle Overbay will never become what scouts thought he could, and SS Alex Gonzalez stinks. This team had a great defense in 2009. Scutaro and 2b Aaron Hill made up the best middle infield in the game. With Scutaro's departure, the Jays not only have to fill his shoes on defense, but he was one of their better hitters as well. DH Adam Lind is a star, and should hit 35 homers. The development of RF Travis Snyder will be the most interesting thing to watch this season. LF Jose Bautista has no value, much like new catcher John Buck. The team wont sell many seats and wont win many games. Their future is not bright and the division is only getting better. It is going to be ugly for baseball north of the border this year.