Colorado @ Phils: I expect Philly to win this series in 4 games, at most. They are substantially better on defense, starting pitching, and defense as well. The only weak spot they have is the pen, which they may not even need with the slightly above average Rockies starters.
StL@ Dodgers: I expect a Cards win here, also in 4 games. I wont be shocked if it is a sweep. I wont be shocked if it takes 5 games either, but i do think Cards win. Joe Torre has made the moronic decision to start Randy Wolf in game 1 instead of Clayton Kershaw, by far his best pitcher and arguably the best lefty in the NL. The Cards dont hit lefties well. Granted, Wolf is alefty , but he aint Clayton Kershaw. The only advantage the Dodgers have is in the pen. The Cards pen is solid, but not spectacular. The Dodgers pen is spectacular. Dodgers have better defense, but the top of the rotation for StL brings such a dramatic advantage to the table that the Dodgers are outclassed, by a mile.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
ONE game playoff. Tigers @ Twins
I know a lot of people figured the division was over about a month ago, with the Twins losing Glenn Perkins and Justin Morneau for the year. But I have watched this tigers team all year, they arent very good. They are carried by 1b Miguel Cabrera, stud starter Justin Verlander, and for about 4 months, staring pitcher Edwin Jackson. About 4-6 weeks ago, Jackson's arm seemed to fall off. His ERA has gone up over a run, he is getting shelled by opposing hitters, and the Tigers just stopped scoring.
I was at the Metrodome about 3 weeks ago and saw the power of that place. The Tigers LF lost a ball in the lights after the Tigers left 10 runners on thru 5, and the Twins cut the lead down to 3 games, from the 7 or 8 it was about a month ago.
Then the Twins went to Detroit, needing a 3-1 series victory in the 4 game set, for a tie. Well, they won the first game, lost the next two, but salved a tie by winning game 4.
The tigers then stay ar home, vs the chisox, and lose the first two, pretty easily actually. All the while Minnesota is sweeping KC and Zack Greinke at home. So all the Tigers needed was 2 wins or a Twins loss in either of those series, they got neither.
Now the Tigers come to Minnesota in the 3rd one-game playoff in the last 3 series, and the second straight involving the Twins. Last year Minnesota went into Chicago and was shutout.
That wont happen again. In potentially the last Metrodome game ever, I expect a Twins win and will be utterly shocked if they do not come thru. Starters are Scott Baker for the Twins and 20 year old Rick Porcello for the Tigers. Not too worried about either of them, though clearly Porcello is a long term stud whereas Baker is a #3 starter at best. None of that matters much. the Twins hit, the tigers don't. The Twins win at home, the Tigers do not win on the road.
Of course anything can happen, hopefull ythe Twins dont come out flat, but I will be beyond shocked if they lose this home game. It sure seems like destiny to me..
I was at the Metrodome about 3 weeks ago and saw the power of that place. The Tigers LF lost a ball in the lights after the Tigers left 10 runners on thru 5, and the Twins cut the lead down to 3 games, from the 7 or 8 it was about a month ago.
Then the Twins went to Detroit, needing a 3-1 series victory in the 4 game set, for a tie. Well, they won the first game, lost the next two, but salved a tie by winning game 4.
The tigers then stay ar home, vs the chisox, and lose the first two, pretty easily actually. All the while Minnesota is sweeping KC and Zack Greinke at home. So all the Tigers needed was 2 wins or a Twins loss in either of those series, they got neither.
Now the Tigers come to Minnesota in the 3rd one-game playoff in the last 3 series, and the second straight involving the Twins. Last year Minnesota went into Chicago and was shutout.
That wont happen again. In potentially the last Metrodome game ever, I expect a Twins win and will be utterly shocked if they do not come thru. Starters are Scott Baker for the Twins and 20 year old Rick Porcello for the Tigers. Not too worried about either of them, though clearly Porcello is a long term stud whereas Baker is a #3 starter at best. None of that matters much. the Twins hit, the tigers don't. The Twins win at home, the Tigers do not win on the road.
Of course anything can happen, hopefull ythe Twins dont come out flat, but I will be beyond shocked if they lose this home game. It sure seems like destiny to me..
Saturday, September 5, 2009
The sadness of the Rays
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- Rays were done when they lost 3 of 4 to Chisox, around then Buerhle threw his PG. they have lost home series to the Yanks, Bosox and tigers since then (not to mention a 1-5 road trip vs LAA and SEA, teams they are better than, or at least as good as.
I love watching them. I love Maddon, I love Longoria, Bartlett, and even Upton (for his defense). They should be the best team in baseball, if not at least top 5. And they just havent played like it. Their bullpen is to blame first of all, because of its April and recent blow-ups (most notably @SEA, and Howell again @Tor, coming off a fantastic Kazmir start.
But more importantly, their starters simply havent learned how to consistently go 6-7 innings without having major meltdowns at some point. Be it Garza walking them loaded and having to k the side in the first just to get out unscathed (hypothetical but realistic), or Shields throwing gems when the team doesnt score, and giving up big innings everytime they actually put runs on the board.
Davis Price will be fine, he will be CC Sabathia good. But right now, this team is missing something. Their defense is worse than last year, I am sure of it. They are getting no production out of CF (Upton), catcher (Dionner Navarro) or DH (Pat Burrell, Gabe Gross-types).
Basically they have been carried by Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, Jason Bartlett, and Ben Zobrist, with occasional appearances, albeit impressive, from 1b Carlos Pena. - I dont know enough about pitching coaches to know if its Jim Hickey or not, but someone who knows should take a look and see. This team is a top 3 AL team EASILY. This is a shame. They belong with the Red Sox and Phils. A very sad baseball story to me.
Friday, July 24, 2009
Effects of the Matt Holliday to STL deal.
Well, just a day or two after my NL Central updates,the Cardinals went and changed everything.
They added the number one available bat in Oakland's LF Matt Holliday. Granted, Holliday has not had much of a year to write about, until the last week, during which he netted 3 of his 11 homers, 11 of his 54 RBI's, 4 of his 23 doubles, and a few steals as well. Essentially the week of July 16-23 has given him about 25-30% of his production this season. None of this matters I suppose, who cares how he gets to 25 homers as long as he does so, but my point was illustrating that he had done very very little on the year until recently. Nevertheless, this changes the divisional dynamics quite a bit.
I no longer expect the Cubs to win the Central, in fact I dont even think they will make the playoffs. I will stick to the Rockies winning the Wild Card but I will flip-flop my top two in the NL Central, pushing the Cards about 3 games ahead of the Cubbies. I think Holliday should produce enough, and his prescence will also help maintain Albert Pujols' numbers. It is important to note that Holliday goes from the most extreme pitchers' park in the league, to a pretty decent hitters park. He will now hit behind the best player in baseball, as opposed to the mediocrity the A's have been putting out everyday. He will be protected by near All-Stars in Mark DeRosa and Ryan Ludwick which will push his run totals up a bunch as well.
I will not be suprised if he exceeds his Oakland totals (286 BA, 454 Slug, 11hrs, 54 rbis, 52 runs, and 12 sbs, 95 games) in 70 games. He will also have the added motivation, I suppose, of the playoff and possible World Series run, and of course his impending Free Agency.
This move pushes Rick Ankiel into a platoon role, at best. Ankiel is a plus defender, a minus hitter, but as a 4th outfielder, the depth he adds will be very significant. To have a decent starter on the bench, available to play any of the OF spots with top tier defense is a plus. He will often be a late inning replacement for RF Ryan Ludwick, will give Holliday and CF Colby Rasmus the occasional day off against righties, and provide valuable insurance as a left-handed bat off the bench.
The Cards now have all the pieces to go to the World Series again. In righties Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, they have two of the top 10 pitchers in the NL. In Holliday, Pujols, DeRosa, and Ludwick, they have the best right-handed hitting in the NL. Their bullpen has overperformed, as closer Ryan Franklin is not going to maintain a 1.25 ERA unless he made a deal with Satan himself. Perhaps he did. It's something I would look into, if I have a chance. They have the best pitching in the NL Central now, and have all year. They may even have the best pitching in the NL, including the bullpen. Now they have an offense to compete with LA and Philly. I expect those three teams to battle it out for the NL title. If the Wild Card comes from Colorado, the Phillies benefit most of all, because the Dodgers would then be forced to play STL in round one, leaving the Rockies to the Phils. If the Cubs or Houston somehow make the playoffs, the Dodgers would get an easy ride into the NLCS. And if the Braves make the playoffs, the Phils and Cards would battle it out while LA would play ATL. So this trade changes things a ton. I will not be suprised if STL goes to the series. Philly now needs to go grab Roy Halladay, and fast!
They added the number one available bat in Oakland's LF Matt Holliday. Granted, Holliday has not had much of a year to write about, until the last week, during which he netted 3 of his 11 homers, 11 of his 54 RBI's, 4 of his 23 doubles, and a few steals as well. Essentially the week of July 16-23 has given him about 25-30% of his production this season. None of this matters I suppose, who cares how he gets to 25 homers as long as he does so, but my point was illustrating that he had done very very little on the year until recently. Nevertheless, this changes the divisional dynamics quite a bit.
I no longer expect the Cubs to win the Central, in fact I dont even think they will make the playoffs. I will stick to the Rockies winning the Wild Card but I will flip-flop my top two in the NL Central, pushing the Cards about 3 games ahead of the Cubbies. I think Holliday should produce enough, and his prescence will also help maintain Albert Pujols' numbers. It is important to note that Holliday goes from the most extreme pitchers' park in the league, to a pretty decent hitters park. He will now hit behind the best player in baseball, as opposed to the mediocrity the A's have been putting out everyday. He will be protected by near All-Stars in Mark DeRosa and Ryan Ludwick which will push his run totals up a bunch as well.
I will not be suprised if he exceeds his Oakland totals (286 BA, 454 Slug, 11hrs, 54 rbis, 52 runs, and 12 sbs, 95 games) in 70 games. He will also have the added motivation, I suppose, of the playoff and possible World Series run, and of course his impending Free Agency.
This move pushes Rick Ankiel into a platoon role, at best. Ankiel is a plus defender, a minus hitter, but as a 4th outfielder, the depth he adds will be very significant. To have a decent starter on the bench, available to play any of the OF spots with top tier defense is a plus. He will often be a late inning replacement for RF Ryan Ludwick, will give Holliday and CF Colby Rasmus the occasional day off against righties, and provide valuable insurance as a left-handed bat off the bench.
The Cards now have all the pieces to go to the World Series again. In righties Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, they have two of the top 10 pitchers in the NL. In Holliday, Pujols, DeRosa, and Ludwick, they have the best right-handed hitting in the NL. Their bullpen has overperformed, as closer Ryan Franklin is not going to maintain a 1.25 ERA unless he made a deal with Satan himself. Perhaps he did. It's something I would look into, if I have a chance. They have the best pitching in the NL Central now, and have all year. They may even have the best pitching in the NL, including the bullpen. Now they have an offense to compete with LA and Philly. I expect those three teams to battle it out for the NL title. If the Wild Card comes from Colorado, the Phillies benefit most of all, because the Dodgers would then be forced to play STL in round one, leaving the Rockies to the Phils. If the Cubs or Houston somehow make the playoffs, the Dodgers would get an easy ride into the NLCS. And if the Braves make the playoffs, the Phils and Cards would battle it out while LA would play ATL. So this trade changes things a ton. I will not be suprised if STL goes to the series. Philly now needs to go grab Roy Halladay, and fast!
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Updated NL Central Predictions
1. Cubs (85-77). This is by far the hardest division for me to forecast, given how there are 4 teams within about 3 games as of today. Each team has such glaring strengths and weaknesses that just about anything could happen. The Cubs have managed to hang around for 2 months without their best hitter (3b Aramis Ramirez). They have weathered the high 4 ERA of supposed ace starter Rich Harden. They have withstood a horrid first half for LF Alfonso Soriano (233 BA, 298 OBP). They have waited around all year for offseason mistake of the millenium Milton Bradley to do anything at all (238, 6 hrs, 21 RBI's). And still they are only 2 games back of STL. They just have too much talent for this to continue. The rest of the central has been mediocre, at best, allowing the Cubs to waitfor everything to come around. Starting out the second half at 5-2 is the first step, and if they can get improvements out of just two of their many injured or underperformers, they should win the division, though not easily.
2. St Louis. 84-78. It could very easily come down to the last week, and probably will. Anytime that happens, the second place team has a very good chance to win the division. Everything went right for STL in the first half. A huge season from Albert Pujols is always expected, and as usual he delivered. Righty Chris Carpenter has bounced back from injuries to lead the NL in ERA (2.2) and whip (.88). I dont know if that can continue. 8 wins and a 3 ERA from number 3 starter Joel Pineiro is also a big bonus. The most unexpected of all is closer Ryan Franklin, with a sub 1 ERA and whip, and 22 saves to validate his All-Star selection, he has been the biggest end of the bullpen shocker in the NL this season. There is simply no way a pitcher with a lifetime 265 BAA can maintain a 160 BAA. I suppose its possible, but I would not bank on it. Granted, the Cards added a solid right-handed bat in utility mega-stud Mark DeRosa, and he will add a lot to the lineup, so winning the division is very very possible. They have better starting pitching than the Cubs, it could be argued, though not as much depth. I suppose this is a toss-up between these two squads, and I am merely going with the underperformer to get back to the mean, rather than the overperformer continuing the run. Neither team will surprise me, regardless of the outcome.
3. Milwaukee 81-81. They have a few great hitters in Prince Fielder (313, 24 hr, 86 RBI's) and loudmouth LF Ryan Braun (306, 17, 60) , but beyond that, there is little to rely on. They have average, at best, pitching. Their stud pitcher is 8-7 with a 3.28 ERA (Yovani Gallardo) and seems to be tiring with each start. Their next 3 starters are averaging about 5 wins and a 5 ERA to go with them (Jeff Suppan, Braden Looper, and Manny Parra). Their pen has been a bright spot with lefty/righty combo Mitch Stetter and Todd Coffey and their dueling 2.64 ERA's. Closer Trevor Hoffman has been brilliant with 22 saves and a 1.91 ERA. But there is somehting missing on this team. Namely, starters. Very subpar pitching combined with slightly above average offense does not add up to much more than a 500 record and that is what you will get with this team.
4. Houston 80-82. A lot better than I thought they would be, and I am not quite sure how. They have a bad offense and not much beyond their two stud pitchers (Roy Oswalt and lefty Wandy Rodriguez). Lance Berkman is having a down year at 270 with 18 jacks and on pace for less than 90 RBI's for just the second time in a full season in his career. OF Carlos Lee is doing what he always does, hit 300 with 25 bombs and 100 RBI's. SS Miguel Tejada is having a nice bounceback year with a 325 average and a 50 doubles pace. I dont know how a team is in contention given that they are rolling Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz out to start 2 out of every 5 days. yet here they are, just 3 games back. I expect them to fold up, sooner or later, though their track record every year post ASB shows otherwise. I put no stock into that trend however, and feel that Wandy in particular is a good candidate to regress, given his current ERA of 2.72 and his career ERA of 4.42. It should end somewhere in between I would presume. If Berkman is hurt, and he may be given his numbers, this team will not be able to hang around much longer, because he is by far thir best hitter, and a top 10 hitter in the NL, if not all of baseball. This team is smoke and mirrors, and it will reveal itself in August or, at worst, September.
5. Cincinatti 74-88. They have 2 hitters who are not worthless : 1b Joey Votto (345 BA, 13 hrs, 430OBP) and 2b Brandon Phillips ( who should net 20+ hrs and sb's as he always does). Beyond that, they made one of the worst off-season moves in baseball by signing CF Wily Taveras (246 BA, 287 OBP) and then allowing him to lead off everyday. He is worthless and always has been. At the very least, madman manager and King of Morons Dusty Baker should bat Taveras 7th or 8th and let him run wild. They are also starting Chris Dickerson (15 XBH's in 81 games) everyday, even though he is a 5th outfielder on his good days, and AAAA player on his worst. RF Jay Bruce, pre-injury,was on pace for 30 hrs to go with his 220 BA, but he is young and they can let him develop. Their pen has been top 10 in the league, as it was last year, but with an offense that scores less than 4 runs per game, there is little need for lead protection. Johnny Cueto has been good (3.67 ERA, 1.27 WHIP ) in just his second year, and will only get better, so thats a plus. But Edison Volquez has once again been hurt and cannot seem to stay healthy for very long, ever. If this team is ever going to improve, they will need to stop starting players like Taveras, SS Jerry Hairston, and they will need to figure out which direction they are going. They send out 5-6 dead bats out every game, and hope that the pitchers throw shutouts in front of them. The GM and manager should be fired (GM for signing Taveras and MGR for playing him) and go from there. This team is hopeless.
6. Pittsburgh 72-90. Well, at least they try. The front office deals everyone, every year. From Jason Bay in 08 to Nate McLouth and Adam LaRoche in 09. My guess is they are not even yet done dealing. I feel bad for the players who stick around, they see everyone around them leave. Thsi team has dealt some good players too. They are giving all their young kids a look, and thats fine, but all the front office ends up doing is dealing them once the bills come due. Offensive bright spots include Garrett Jones and Andrew McCutcheon but not much else. Pitching bright spots include All-star Zach Duke and that about covers this shitty team.
2. St Louis. 84-78. It could very easily come down to the last week, and probably will. Anytime that happens, the second place team has a very good chance to win the division. Everything went right for STL in the first half. A huge season from Albert Pujols is always expected, and as usual he delivered. Righty Chris Carpenter has bounced back from injuries to lead the NL in ERA (2.2) and whip (.88). I dont know if that can continue. 8 wins and a 3 ERA from number 3 starter Joel Pineiro is also a big bonus. The most unexpected of all is closer Ryan Franklin, with a sub 1 ERA and whip, and 22 saves to validate his All-Star selection, he has been the biggest end of the bullpen shocker in the NL this season. There is simply no way a pitcher with a lifetime 265 BAA can maintain a 160 BAA. I suppose its possible, but I would not bank on it. Granted, the Cards added a solid right-handed bat in utility mega-stud Mark DeRosa, and he will add a lot to the lineup, so winning the division is very very possible. They have better starting pitching than the Cubs, it could be argued, though not as much depth. I suppose this is a toss-up between these two squads, and I am merely going with the underperformer to get back to the mean, rather than the overperformer continuing the run. Neither team will surprise me, regardless of the outcome.
3. Milwaukee 81-81. They have a few great hitters in Prince Fielder (313, 24 hr, 86 RBI's) and loudmouth LF Ryan Braun (306, 17, 60) , but beyond that, there is little to rely on. They have average, at best, pitching. Their stud pitcher is 8-7 with a 3.28 ERA (Yovani Gallardo) and seems to be tiring with each start. Their next 3 starters are averaging about 5 wins and a 5 ERA to go with them (Jeff Suppan, Braden Looper, and Manny Parra). Their pen has been a bright spot with lefty/righty combo Mitch Stetter and Todd Coffey and their dueling 2.64 ERA's. Closer Trevor Hoffman has been brilliant with 22 saves and a 1.91 ERA. But there is somehting missing on this team. Namely, starters. Very subpar pitching combined with slightly above average offense does not add up to much more than a 500 record and that is what you will get with this team.
4. Houston 80-82. A lot better than I thought they would be, and I am not quite sure how. They have a bad offense and not much beyond their two stud pitchers (Roy Oswalt and lefty Wandy Rodriguez). Lance Berkman is having a down year at 270 with 18 jacks and on pace for less than 90 RBI's for just the second time in a full season in his career. OF Carlos Lee is doing what he always does, hit 300 with 25 bombs and 100 RBI's. SS Miguel Tejada is having a nice bounceback year with a 325 average and a 50 doubles pace. I dont know how a team is in contention given that they are rolling Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz out to start 2 out of every 5 days. yet here they are, just 3 games back. I expect them to fold up, sooner or later, though their track record every year post ASB shows otherwise. I put no stock into that trend however, and feel that Wandy in particular is a good candidate to regress, given his current ERA of 2.72 and his career ERA of 4.42. It should end somewhere in between I would presume. If Berkman is hurt, and he may be given his numbers, this team will not be able to hang around much longer, because he is by far thir best hitter, and a top 10 hitter in the NL, if not all of baseball. This team is smoke and mirrors, and it will reveal itself in August or, at worst, September.
5. Cincinatti 74-88. They have 2 hitters who are not worthless : 1b Joey Votto (345 BA, 13 hrs, 430OBP) and 2b Brandon Phillips ( who should net 20+ hrs and sb's as he always does). Beyond that, they made one of the worst off-season moves in baseball by signing CF Wily Taveras (246 BA, 287 OBP) and then allowing him to lead off everyday. He is worthless and always has been. At the very least, madman manager and King of Morons Dusty Baker should bat Taveras 7th or 8th and let him run wild. They are also starting Chris Dickerson (15 XBH's in 81 games) everyday, even though he is a 5th outfielder on his good days, and AAAA player on his worst. RF Jay Bruce, pre-injury,was on pace for 30 hrs to go with his 220 BA, but he is young and they can let him develop. Their pen has been top 10 in the league, as it was last year, but with an offense that scores less than 4 runs per game, there is little need for lead protection. Johnny Cueto has been good (3.67 ERA, 1.27 WHIP ) in just his second year, and will only get better, so thats a plus. But Edison Volquez has once again been hurt and cannot seem to stay healthy for very long, ever. If this team is ever going to improve, they will need to stop starting players like Taveras, SS Jerry Hairston, and they will need to figure out which direction they are going. They send out 5-6 dead bats out every game, and hope that the pitchers throw shutouts in front of them. The GM and manager should be fired (GM for signing Taveras and MGR for playing him) and go from there. This team is hopeless.
6. Pittsburgh 72-90. Well, at least they try. The front office deals everyone, every year. From Jason Bay in 08 to Nate McLouth and Adam LaRoche in 09. My guess is they are not even yet done dealing. I feel bad for the players who stick around, they see everyone around them leave. Thsi team has dealt some good players too. They are giving all their young kids a look, and thats fine, but all the front office ends up doing is dealing them once the bills come due. Offensive bright spots include Garrett Jones and Andrew McCutcheon but not much else. Pitching bright spots include All-star Zach Duke and that about covers this shitty team.
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Updated NL EAST Predictions
1st. Phillies (92-70). I may have been wrong about Colorado, but I nailed this one spot on. I will not be humble, either. This team does not give a shit if they are down 15-0, they will come back. They know they will come back, they dont care who is pitching, be it a 46 year old with a high 70's heater (Jamie Moyer) or a cast-off who is about a mile past done (Rodrigo Lopez). They play the best defense in the NL. They have the best offense in the NL, and they weathered a June in which their bullpen blew 8 saves. They are up 7 games in their division with 8 blown saves in June. To me, thats astonishing. It doesnt matter if they lose close or get blown out, they never turn on each other and never slow down. Raul Ibanez is still having a career year , hitting .315 with 25 homers. The DL slowed him a bit in his quest for 100 RBI's and 100 runs, but he should still hit .300 with 35+ HR's, and I suppose the park gets a lot of credit (as well as his surrounding lineup). Jimmy Rollins gave them nothing thru June and still, they are up. Cole Hamels gave them very little also, and still, they win. They signed a 37 year old Pedro Martinez on the off chance he can give them something, anything at all. I doubt he will, but they do not need much with this offense. They are a lock to win the East. I am calling it over right now. Roy Halladay or not, it is done. Phils are going to be back in the World Series in a few months, barring injury.
2. Braves (86-76). I figure this is a bit of a reach, given the fact they have yet to get 2 games over 500 all year, but they have the best starting pitching in the NL, bar none, and their offense is coming around. Since the beginning of the year, this team has gone thru a lot: they have sent down prospect CF Jordan Schafer and replaced him with Nate McClouth, a huge upgrade. They have traded RF Jeff Franceour for Ryan Church, another upgrade, though not a huge one. They have called up righty Tommy Hanson and he has been fantastic, netting a sub 3 era along with a spotless 5-0 record. They have benched 2b Kelly Johnson for Martin Prado (negligible difference) and they have settled on a closer: Rafael Soriano (1 blown save). The team has weather close loss after close loss, lack of power, and is starting to put pieces together. The division is so bad outside of Philly, Atlanta has a decent shot at the wild card.
3. Florida (79-83). Since I have to pick a third place team, I guess I will pick Florida. This is solely third place by attrition, because the Mets are fielding a team consisting of 5 minor leaguers, a circus clown and 2 gypsies. Florida still has a top 5 player (SS Hanley Ramirez) and a top 10 pitcher (righty Josh Johnson) but beyond that, not much. Their pen has been a disaster, 2b Dan Uggla (260 in 08, 227 in 09) has regressed and RF Jeremy Hermedia has not developed as hoped. 1b Jorge Cantu has been solid, but they have gotten nothing from 3b or LF. This team is aimless and will probably not get any better until they get a new stadium and more revenue. Another wasted year for the Fish.
4. Mets (75-87). I know the Mets wont be winning 80 games, and I assume that they wont be rushing back their hurt superstars (CF Carlos Beltran, 1b Carlos Delgado, and SS Jose "Carlos" Reyes), so perhaps they will not even win 77 games. What a horrid season. Nothing has gone right in the debut of their new stadium. 3b David Wright is on pace for less than 15 homers, maybe not even 10. They are getting zero production from almost every single spot in the order. They dont pitch, they dont hit, they dont play defense. They have a bad manager, a bad GM, and one pitcher worth mentioning (lefty Johan Santana). They paid $15 mil a year for a closer they cannot use (because they are never winning) and things are not going to get better. This team blows September leads every year, and now they will enter the month no less than 10 games back of Philly and possibly Atlanta as well. The only chance they have to win 80 games is if all their players come back completely healthy and ready to play. Frankly, there is no reason to risk it. They are done. They are garbage.
5. Washington (59-103). Possibly the worst team I have ever seen. I still dont know how they are this bad. They have some talent. I guess when you lose it snowballs and gets worse. This team could lose 110-120 games. Its possible. I would not be shocked. Not much else to say.
2. Braves (86-76). I figure this is a bit of a reach, given the fact they have yet to get 2 games over 500 all year, but they have the best starting pitching in the NL, bar none, and their offense is coming around. Since the beginning of the year, this team has gone thru a lot: they have sent down prospect CF Jordan Schafer and replaced him with Nate McClouth, a huge upgrade. They have traded RF Jeff Franceour for Ryan Church, another upgrade, though not a huge one. They have called up righty Tommy Hanson and he has been fantastic, netting a sub 3 era along with a spotless 5-0 record. They have benched 2b Kelly Johnson for Martin Prado (negligible difference) and they have settled on a closer: Rafael Soriano (1 blown save). The team has weather close loss after close loss, lack of power, and is starting to put pieces together. The division is so bad outside of Philly, Atlanta has a decent shot at the wild card.
3. Florida (79-83). Since I have to pick a third place team, I guess I will pick Florida. This is solely third place by attrition, because the Mets are fielding a team consisting of 5 minor leaguers, a circus clown and 2 gypsies. Florida still has a top 5 player (SS Hanley Ramirez) and a top 10 pitcher (righty Josh Johnson) but beyond that, not much. Their pen has been a disaster, 2b Dan Uggla (260 in 08, 227 in 09) has regressed and RF Jeremy Hermedia has not developed as hoped. 1b Jorge Cantu has been solid, but they have gotten nothing from 3b or LF. This team is aimless and will probably not get any better until they get a new stadium and more revenue. Another wasted year for the Fish.
4. Mets (75-87). I know the Mets wont be winning 80 games, and I assume that they wont be rushing back their hurt superstars (CF Carlos Beltran, 1b Carlos Delgado, and SS Jose "Carlos" Reyes), so perhaps they will not even win 77 games. What a horrid season. Nothing has gone right in the debut of their new stadium. 3b David Wright is on pace for less than 15 homers, maybe not even 10. They are getting zero production from almost every single spot in the order. They dont pitch, they dont hit, they dont play defense. They have a bad manager, a bad GM, and one pitcher worth mentioning (lefty Johan Santana). They paid $15 mil a year for a closer they cannot use (because they are never winning) and things are not going to get better. This team blows September leads every year, and now they will enter the month no less than 10 games back of Philly and possibly Atlanta as well. The only chance they have to win 80 games is if all their players come back completely healthy and ready to play. Frankly, there is no reason to risk it. They are done. They are garbage.
5. Washington (59-103). Possibly the worst team I have ever seen. I still dont know how they are this bad. They have some talent. I guess when you lose it snowballs and gets worse. This team could lose 110-120 games. Its possible. I would not be shocked. Not much else to say.
Monday, July 20, 2009
NL West Projection
1st. Dodgers (100-62). Since day 1 of the season, nothing has changed at all. This is the best team in the division. They have the best bullpen in baseball perhaps. They have very good starting pitching, and they have a top 3 NL offense. Their defense is also top 3 in the NL. One problem that is beginning to rear it's head is the lack of rotation depth. Chad Billingsley has really fallen off in the last month, his arm seems tired, he has yet to log a victory since June 14th (vs Texas), and his ERA has risen each month. Hiroki Kuroda has been average, at best, over his last several starts.
If I am the Dodgers, I go get Roy Halladay right now, because even though they will win the west, they wont get past round 1 of the playoffs because their arms will be toast by then. This team lost ZERO games in the standings with Manny Ramirez out, which shows me all I need to know about who will win the division. It really seems to be no contest.
2nd. Colorado (88-74). Boy was I wrong about this one. I know they have talent, but I had no idea the pitching would be this good. They have won 30 of their last 40 games (and gained only 5 or 6 games on the Dodgers), but the Wild Card is well within reach. This team has a great offense, arguably as good as the Dodgers. Their starters have been pretty good also, with a breakout year from Ubaldo Jimenez and possibly Jorge De La Rosa as well. Jason Marquis has been a great FA pickup, nothing 12 wins before August. Huston Street has been a great pickup, and the loss of Matt Holliday has turned out to be no loss at all. I expect Colorado to win the wild card, unless the Giants pick up a bat or two.
3rd. Giants (86-76). Another one I missed. This one boggles my brain. I see how I was wrong about Colorado, they have good hitters and their pitchers have improved. But the Giants have one above average hitter, Pablo Sandoval, and I find it hard to believe he is capable of carrying a team. The Giants do have the best pitcher in baseball, 08 Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum. They also have Matt Cain, who is argualby a top 10 mlb starter, and certainly a top 10 NL pithcer. But Barry Zito has been horrid, Randy Johnson has been up and down, and the 5th spot has given them very little. The bullpen has been a strength, closer Brian Wilson, generic gangster Irishman, has given them 21 saves and blown but 5. Lefty set-up man Jeremy Affeldt has been fantastic. So I suppose the pen has been a strength. But this team struggles to score, ranking in the bottom 5 in the majors in runs per game. I think this team will fall off, unless they get at least 1 bat (either a corner IF or a corner OF), maybe both. I simply see no way they can keep this up with the hitters they have.
4. Arizona (70-92). what a dissappointment. Perhaps no team in the league has underachieved like the D-Backs. From Brandon Webb getting hurt in week 1, to the total crap that CF Chris Young and LF Eric Byrnes have been. From the bullpen to the defense, from the manager to the front office, everything has gone wrong. Even the most ardent D-Backs fan would not say otherwise. The bright spots have been few, three to be exact: starter Daniel "Danny" Haren has been as good as any pitcher in baseball (1.96 ERA thru mid July). RF Justin Upton has become a major offensive force (on pace for to hit over 290, with 25+ Hr's and SB's, along with over 90 runs and RBI's. 3b Mark Reynolds has become quite an offensive force himself, on pace for over 35 HR's and 25+ SB's, along with over 100 RBI's. He may strike out 190 times, but his power production (and sudden ability to steal bases), has turned a lot of heads. This team will be better next year, they can't be any worse, but they division is passing them by.
5. Padres (62-100). Well, this one I nailed spot on. They have one major league hitter on their roster in Adrian Gonzalez, but even he can't carry a roster of 5th starters (Kevin Correia, Tim Stauffer, Chad Gaudin), castoffs (Tony Gwynn Jr, David Eckstein) and worthless garbage (Kevin Kouzmanoff, Luis Rodriguez, Chase Headley, and everyone else). The sole bright spot is the closer, Heath Bell. Bell has replaced HOF'er Trevor Hoffman very ably. He has dominated opposing batters and been near perfect. In short, he has been as good as just about any closer in the game. Honestly though, anything more than 1 paragraph about the Padres is wasted space.
If I am the Dodgers, I go get Roy Halladay right now, because even though they will win the west, they wont get past round 1 of the playoffs because their arms will be toast by then. This team lost ZERO games in the standings with Manny Ramirez out, which shows me all I need to know about who will win the division. It really seems to be no contest.
2nd. Colorado (88-74). Boy was I wrong about this one. I know they have talent, but I had no idea the pitching would be this good. They have won 30 of their last 40 games (and gained only 5 or 6 games on the Dodgers), but the Wild Card is well within reach. This team has a great offense, arguably as good as the Dodgers. Their starters have been pretty good also, with a breakout year from Ubaldo Jimenez and possibly Jorge De La Rosa as well. Jason Marquis has been a great FA pickup, nothing 12 wins before August. Huston Street has been a great pickup, and the loss of Matt Holliday has turned out to be no loss at all. I expect Colorado to win the wild card, unless the Giants pick up a bat or two.
3rd. Giants (86-76). Another one I missed. This one boggles my brain. I see how I was wrong about Colorado, they have good hitters and their pitchers have improved. But the Giants have one above average hitter, Pablo Sandoval, and I find it hard to believe he is capable of carrying a team. The Giants do have the best pitcher in baseball, 08 Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum. They also have Matt Cain, who is argualby a top 10 mlb starter, and certainly a top 10 NL pithcer. But Barry Zito has been horrid, Randy Johnson has been up and down, and the 5th spot has given them very little. The bullpen has been a strength, closer Brian Wilson, generic gangster Irishman, has given them 21 saves and blown but 5. Lefty set-up man Jeremy Affeldt has been fantastic. So I suppose the pen has been a strength. But this team struggles to score, ranking in the bottom 5 in the majors in runs per game. I think this team will fall off, unless they get at least 1 bat (either a corner IF or a corner OF), maybe both. I simply see no way they can keep this up with the hitters they have.
4. Arizona (70-92). what a dissappointment. Perhaps no team in the league has underachieved like the D-Backs. From Brandon Webb getting hurt in week 1, to the total crap that CF Chris Young and LF Eric Byrnes have been. From the bullpen to the defense, from the manager to the front office, everything has gone wrong. Even the most ardent D-Backs fan would not say otherwise. The bright spots have been few, three to be exact: starter Daniel "Danny" Haren has been as good as any pitcher in baseball (1.96 ERA thru mid July). RF Justin Upton has become a major offensive force (on pace for to hit over 290, with 25+ Hr's and SB's, along with over 90 runs and RBI's. 3b Mark Reynolds has become quite an offensive force himself, on pace for over 35 HR's and 25+ SB's, along with over 100 RBI's. He may strike out 190 times, but his power production (and sudden ability to steal bases), has turned a lot of heads. This team will be better next year, they can't be any worse, but they division is passing them by.
5. Padres (62-100). Well, this one I nailed spot on. They have one major league hitter on their roster in Adrian Gonzalez, but even he can't carry a roster of 5th starters (Kevin Correia, Tim Stauffer, Chad Gaudin), castoffs (Tony Gwynn Jr, David Eckstein) and worthless garbage (Kevin Kouzmanoff, Luis Rodriguez, Chase Headley, and everyone else). The sole bright spot is the closer, Heath Bell. Bell has replaced HOF'er Trevor Hoffman very ably. He has dominated opposing batters and been near perfect. In short, he has been as good as just about any closer in the game. Honestly though, anything more than 1 paragraph about the Padres is wasted space.
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Can The Giants Keep It Up?
One of the most surprising stories of the year thus far is the San Francisco Giants. Everyone knew they had good starters, Tim Lincecum won the Cy Young last year and Matt Cain has joined him as a top 10 major league pitcher. What we did not know was that the bullpen would be so solid, and that the Giants hitting would be buoyed by a smallish fatman named Pablo Sandoval.
The tubby switch hitter can play first and third (ideally first) and even spelled starting catcher Bengie Molina occasionally during day games after night games. His versatility is surpassed only by his uncanny ability to make contact with seemingly every pitch he swings at (and he swings at every pitch he sees). Sandoval loves donuts and candies, clearly, but he also seems to like hanging sliders and fastballs down the pipe. He led the National League with a .400 average in June, and while he ceratinly cannot keep that up, there is no reason to think he can't match the power he has shown thus far. He has 11 homers to date, leading the Giants. While the total itself is unimpressive, and the fact he is leading a below average offense in homers is also not bragworthy, the fact he has developed power in just his second year, to go along with his .330 average is certainly noteable. I see no reason why he cannot notch 20-25 jacks along with a 310 average. I do not think he can keep up this pace as far as BA goes. He doesnt lay off pitches, and he would seriously buck the norm to hit 330 while swinging at every pitch he sees.
The Giants still have a bottom 5 offense in baseball, and nothing will change that all year, unless they deal for a power hitting OF or corner IF. I expect this team to make a run at the wild card if they can get themselves a hitter. If they dont, I think they will fall short, though not too far. The pen is solid enough to hold it together, especially with the fact that Lincecum and Cain go 7-8 innings per start. Barry Zito is garbage, though slightly improved over last year. Randy Johnson is fine, and about a 6 inning pitcher. They need to settle the 5th starter's role, ideally getting a 6+ inning guy. Otherwise they will waste a solid pen by August.
I look for 83-85 wins from the Giants, will puts them very much in the wild card hunt. I think they will fall short in the end, losing out to the Mets, Phils, Braves, or Brewers.
The tubby switch hitter can play first and third (ideally first) and even spelled starting catcher Bengie Molina occasionally during day games after night games. His versatility is surpassed only by his uncanny ability to make contact with seemingly every pitch he swings at (and he swings at every pitch he sees). Sandoval loves donuts and candies, clearly, but he also seems to like hanging sliders and fastballs down the pipe. He led the National League with a .400 average in June, and while he ceratinly cannot keep that up, there is no reason to think he can't match the power he has shown thus far. He has 11 homers to date, leading the Giants. While the total itself is unimpressive, and the fact he is leading a below average offense in homers is also not bragworthy, the fact he has developed power in just his second year, to go along with his .330 average is certainly noteable. I see no reason why he cannot notch 20-25 jacks along with a 310 average. I do not think he can keep up this pace as far as BA goes. He doesnt lay off pitches, and he would seriously buck the norm to hit 330 while swinging at every pitch he sees.
The Giants still have a bottom 5 offense in baseball, and nothing will change that all year, unless they deal for a power hitting OF or corner IF. I expect this team to make a run at the wild card if they can get themselves a hitter. If they dont, I think they will fall short, though not too far. The pen is solid enough to hold it together, especially with the fact that Lincecum and Cain go 7-8 innings per start. Barry Zito is garbage, though slightly improved over last year. Randy Johnson is fine, and about a 6 inning pitcher. They need to settle the 5th starter's role, ideally getting a 6+ inning guy. Otherwise they will waste a solid pen by August.
I look for 83-85 wins from the Giants, will puts them very much in the wild card hunt. I think they will fall short in the end, losing out to the Mets, Phils, Braves, or Brewers.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Tampa Bay Rays
I still think this is the best team in baseball.
They have better hitting than the Dodgers, and I would argue their starters may be better too.
They have a better pen than the Phillies, but then, who doesn't?
They have a better defense than the Yanks, which happens when your average age is 44.
They have a better offense than the Red Sox, because they dont just pull balls off the monster.
They have a better offense, pitching, and defense than the Angels. I hate the Angels.
The Rays will still make the playoffs, I am probably in the minority here because everyone seems to think the Red Sox and Yanks will be the two Eastern teams who make it, but I feel the Rays have a better lineup top to bottom than either. In fact, no team in the history of baseball has ever reached 100 steals and 100 homers as quickly as Tampa did this week. In less than half the season, the Rays have done it. Super-utility man Ben Zobrist can play any position and has emerged as a legit 25+ homer threat in the place of 2b Aki Iwamura, who may be out for the year with a torn ACL.
Evan Longoria is probably the best defensive 3b in the majors, and arguably the best offensive one as well, pending A-Rod's recovery.
Jason Bartlett has become the best defensive SS in the league, and suprisingly, a top tiered offensive threat as well.
Bartlett, LF Carl Crawford, and CF BJ Upton will each steal 30 bases, the latter two should top 40+. First baseman Carlos Pena should slug 40 homers, and even though his average will linger around .250 all year, his defense and power, along with the 90+ walks he will net, make him a more than capable cleanup hitter.
The bullpen is coming around after an awful April and with the addition by subtraction of Troy Percival, the pen has become top 5 in the majors.
I think the Rays make the playoffs, and the world series as well.
They have better hitting than the Dodgers, and I would argue their starters may be better too.
They have a better pen than the Phillies, but then, who doesn't?
They have a better defense than the Yanks, which happens when your average age is 44.
They have a better offense than the Red Sox, because they dont just pull balls off the monster.
They have a better offense, pitching, and defense than the Angels. I hate the Angels.
The Rays will still make the playoffs, I am probably in the minority here because everyone seems to think the Red Sox and Yanks will be the two Eastern teams who make it, but I feel the Rays have a better lineup top to bottom than either. In fact, no team in the history of baseball has ever reached 100 steals and 100 homers as quickly as Tampa did this week. In less than half the season, the Rays have done it. Super-utility man Ben Zobrist can play any position and has emerged as a legit 25+ homer threat in the place of 2b Aki Iwamura, who may be out for the year with a torn ACL.
Evan Longoria is probably the best defensive 3b in the majors, and arguably the best offensive one as well, pending A-Rod's recovery.
Jason Bartlett has become the best defensive SS in the league, and suprisingly, a top tiered offensive threat as well.
Bartlett, LF Carl Crawford, and CF BJ Upton will each steal 30 bases, the latter two should top 40+. First baseman Carlos Pena should slug 40 homers, and even though his average will linger around .250 all year, his defense and power, along with the 90+ walks he will net, make him a more than capable cleanup hitter.
The bullpen is coming around after an awful April and with the addition by subtraction of Troy Percival, the pen has become top 5 in the majors.
I think the Rays make the playoffs, and the world series as well.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Chicago Cubs Thoughts
I am a believer that when the regular season ends, the Cubs win the NL Central. Milwaukee has no pitching (outside of Yovani Gallardo), the Cardinals have no hitting (outside of Albert Pujols), and the Cubs are just 2.5 GB without their best hitter for the last 6 weeks. They have not hit a lick all year: Alfonso Soriano is hitting very near the Mendoza line (227 BA, 14 hrs, 7 sbs), Milton Bradley is even worse (247, 5 hrs and just 16 RBI's), and Derek Lee had just 5 hrs going into June. None of those players are that bad. They are all on the downside, and it remains to be seen how far along the curve they are, but they are not going to fall off as much as they have shown. They should all be in for huge second halves, especially Soriano. Once Aramis Ramirez returns, they instantly add a top 3 hitting 3b in the NL, and probably 15 hrs comes with him.
The bullpen has been massively overworked, as Lou Pinella's pens often are. Carlos Marmol has pitched in more than half the Cubs games (35 games, 32 innings), Kevin Gregg has done the same (33 games, 32 innings), both are on pace to supplant their career highs for appearances and innings. This is becoming a problem, particularly because Rich Harden has been so bad as a starter, he is a 3-5 inning pitcher this year. Luckily, Ted Lilly , Ryan Dempster, and Carlos Zambrano have been innings eaters, with each pitcher averaging close to 7IP per start.
I see no reason why the pitching would not hold up, none of the starters are doing naything out of the ordinary, and Harden (if healthy, as if) should improve dramatically. Assuming the bullpen's arms dont fall off, and frankly, it's a rather big assumption, the Cubs should be in for a big second half, even if they don't make a trade for another OF.
The bullpen has been massively overworked, as Lou Pinella's pens often are. Carlos Marmol has pitched in more than half the Cubs games (35 games, 32 innings), Kevin Gregg has done the same (33 games, 32 innings), both are on pace to supplant their career highs for appearances and innings. This is becoming a problem, particularly because Rich Harden has been so bad as a starter, he is a 3-5 inning pitcher this year. Luckily, Ted Lilly , Ryan Dempster, and Carlos Zambrano have been innings eaters, with each pitcher averaging close to 7IP per start.
I see no reason why the pitching would not hold up, none of the starters are doing naything out of the ordinary, and Harden (if healthy, as if) should improve dramatically. Assuming the bullpen's arms dont fall off, and frankly, it's a rather big assumption, the Cubs should be in for a big second half, even if they don't make a trade for another OF.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Thoughts du jour (Thats French)
The Yankees will not win the East with the team they have now.
First of all, A-Rod's career is on the downswing. That does not mean he is no longer good or great, but he is never going to be what he was. Obviously Posada, Jeter and Matsui are also on the downside of their careers also, probably much more so than A-Rod, in fact.
Secondly, this team has no bullpen outside of closer Mariano Rivera, and he is nearing the end as well. He is still a top 10 closer, but nowhere near the dominant pitcher he was just 2 years ago. That said, he is not the problem. The problem is the starters (Chamberlain, Pettite, Wang, and sometimes Burnett) are all 5 inning pitchers. The Yanks have nobody to pitch the 6th, 7th, or 8th right now. Even if Brian Bruney comes back and is his old self, they still have no 6th or 7th inning guy. My suggestion is to pull Chamberlain out of the rotation and make him the 7th and/or 8th inning guy. I know this is not a new idea, but he was incredible in 07 when they last made the playoffs. He had a sub 2 ERA and a sub 1 WHIP. Unless this team is going to go out and trade for Huston Street from the Rockies (which seems less likely by the day after the last 14 games, during which Colorado has won 13), or Jose Valverde from Houston, they will have to make a move from within. Both Phil Hughes and Chin Ming Wang are starters, unfamiliar with pitching every day or even every 2nd or 3rd day, so that would be a stretch. Chamberlain is a max effort pitcher who can strike out any batter, pretty much whenever he so chooses. Get him out of the rotation, put Hughes in, and put Joba in the pen.
Also, the Yanks need another bat or they will finish third in the east. As much as I hate the Red Sox, they seem to be the best overall team in that division, at least until Tampa Bay can get on any sort of roll at all.
First of all, A-Rod's career is on the downswing. That does not mean he is no longer good or great, but he is never going to be what he was. Obviously Posada, Jeter and Matsui are also on the downside of their careers also, probably much more so than A-Rod, in fact.
Secondly, this team has no bullpen outside of closer Mariano Rivera, and he is nearing the end as well. He is still a top 10 closer, but nowhere near the dominant pitcher he was just 2 years ago. That said, he is not the problem. The problem is the starters (Chamberlain, Pettite, Wang, and sometimes Burnett) are all 5 inning pitchers. The Yanks have nobody to pitch the 6th, 7th, or 8th right now. Even if Brian Bruney comes back and is his old self, they still have no 6th or 7th inning guy. My suggestion is to pull Chamberlain out of the rotation and make him the 7th and/or 8th inning guy. I know this is not a new idea, but he was incredible in 07 when they last made the playoffs. He had a sub 2 ERA and a sub 1 WHIP. Unless this team is going to go out and trade for Huston Street from the Rockies (which seems less likely by the day after the last 14 games, during which Colorado has won 13), or Jose Valverde from Houston, they will have to make a move from within. Both Phil Hughes and Chin Ming Wang are starters, unfamiliar with pitching every day or even every 2nd or 3rd day, so that would be a stretch. Chamberlain is a max effort pitcher who can strike out any batter, pretty much whenever he so chooses. Get him out of the rotation, put Hughes in, and put Joba in the pen.
Also, the Yanks need another bat or they will finish third in the east. As much as I hate the Red Sox, they seem to be the best overall team in that division, at least until Tampa Bay can get on any sort of roll at all.
Monday, June 15, 2009
Thoughts on Tribe
Cleveland: If they can get Sizemore back soon, and/or SS Asdrubal Cabrera, their team will instantly become a contender in the very very average AL Central. Jamey Carroll should not be playing everyday, but because of Cabrera's injury, he is. If Cabrera comes back they can shift Luis Valbuena to second, and bench Carroll for spot play.
If Sizemore comes back. they can put Ben Francisco on the bench, or move him to leftfield. If they put him in left, they can move LF/3b Mark Derosa to either second or third, and possibly bench Valbuena, who is a zero at the plate right now. You add the defense of Cabrera and the offense and defense of Sizemore, and there is no reason this team can't get back to .500 before the All-Star Break. Assuming the Tigers and Twins continue their mercurial play, neither will be much more than .500 at the break. So if the Indians get to the break even mark, they will presumably be about 3-4 games out of first, which is nothing in today's unbalanced intra-divisional schedule. A lot of big ifs, but possible. Also, righty Jake Westbrook is going to come back from Tommy John surgery soon. He cannot possibly be any worse than Jeremy Sowers.
The biggest problem with the Indians for the 2.5 months of the 09 season is the bullpen. They have blown small and huge leads. They have blown home and road leads. Unless moves are made in that pen, they won't win the division. However, they have a shot to get back in it, and once that happens, you never know.
If Sizemore comes back. they can put Ben Francisco on the bench, or move him to leftfield. If they put him in left, they can move LF/3b Mark Derosa to either second or third, and possibly bench Valbuena, who is a zero at the plate right now. You add the defense of Cabrera and the offense and defense of Sizemore, and there is no reason this team can't get back to .500 before the All-Star Break. Assuming the Tigers and Twins continue their mercurial play, neither will be much more than .500 at the break. So if the Indians get to the break even mark, they will presumably be about 3-4 games out of first, which is nothing in today's unbalanced intra-divisional schedule. A lot of big ifs, but possible. Also, righty Jake Westbrook is going to come back from Tommy John surgery soon. He cannot possibly be any worse than Jeremy Sowers.
The biggest problem with the Indians for the 2.5 months of the 09 season is the bullpen. They have blown small and huge leads. They have blown home and road leads. Unless moves are made in that pen, they won't win the division. However, they have a shot to get back in it, and once that happens, you never know.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Updated NL EAST Predictions
1. Phillies 92-70: As I predicted prior to the year, I still believe the Phils win the east. I now believe it will be easier than I thought it would though. The Phils continue to mash the ball and play thru injuries.SP Cole Hamels is just now rounding into form, closer Brad Lidge has been as bad as he can be, SS Jimmy Rollins has been awful, yet the Phils are in first by 3 games. Brett Myers is out for the year, the Phils have two rookie southpaws in the starting rotation and it isnt slowing them down. We will see if it lasts but due to the fact that this team plays such good defense and has such fantastic offensive chemistry, I stick to my earlier call.
2. New York Mets, 88-74. I think the Mets are a better team than we have seen, but they clearly are not what people thought they would be. Carlos Delgado may be out all year, Jose Reyes has missed a month already, JJ Putz is out for a month or two, and the team is all over the place. They have a great closer finally, and Johan Santana has been as good as ever, but the team plays awful defense and has yet to hit for power throughout the lineup.
3. Atlanta Braves 86-76. The team is very similar to the Mets in that they simply cannot get any offensive consistency. Their late game pitching has been very solid, for once. Their starters have been fine, probably the best in the division, but the defense has been average at best. The problem here is the offense. 3b Chipper Jones has been in and out of the lineup, and probably will be all year. Without him, they have no power hitting at all other than C Brian McCann. Add tot he fact that catchers wear down over the course of a season, and the Braves need Jones in the lineup to have any shot at the wildcard. RF Jeff Franceour has been awful, 2b Kelly Johnson has regressed, and LF Garrett Anderson is crappy. The Braves traded for CF Nate McLouth last week, which should add 3-4 wins to their total, both because of his offensive upgrade over Jordan Schafer and his top tier defense, but the team has too many holes right now to win the east. Still, I think the wildcard is obtainable, especially if the Cubs continue to stink.
4. Florida Marlins 77-85. They started 11-1, everyone thought they were the bees knees but most baseball realists knew this team simply doesnt have the defense, hitting, bullpen, or starters to maintain that pace. The biggest bright spot has been the pitching of ace righty Josh Johnson who is fully recovered and again dominant after his surgery of 2 seasons ago. He has pitched as well as anyone in baseball and is a major star in the making. 1b Jorge Cantu has had a nice year, but they have gotten average to below average production from their outfield and pretty much every spot ont he field but 1st and short (Hanley Ramirez). Their pen has been solid, aside from closer Matty Lidstrom. SP Annibal Sanchez is hurt again, SP Andrew Miller has not gotten better, and SP Ricky Nolasco has been all over the place. Their are very few bright spots so far for everyone's favorite offseason sleeper team.
5. Washington Nationals. 58-104. Wow. Just abysmal. Good news first: Offseason signee RF/LF Adam Dunn has been fantastic, hitting for power and for once, average as well (265 compared to 245 last year). CF Lastings Milledge was sent down, again. Possible maniac CF Elijah Dukes has been pretty good, hitting for power and playing slightly above average defense in Milledge's stead. 3b Ryan Zimmerman had a monster first 6 weeks and is certainly carrying his own, as are SS Cristian Guzman and 1b Nick Johnson. The bullpen has blown a ton of saves, and shows no sign of getting better. The Nats simply have no closer and everyone who has tried, has failed on an almost immeasurable scale. They have 4 rookies in their starting rotation, which I must confess to never having seen before. None of those pitchers (Sergio Martis, Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler, and Craig Stammen) has been awful, which is nice. In fact, Martis and Zimmermann have actually thrown pretty well, considering how bad the team is. The best thing anyone could say about the Nats is they will draft college stud Steevn Strasberg with their first overall pick. This kid can throw 102mph and doesnt walk anyone at all. So thats the best news of all in a world of bad news for Washington fans. Wait till next year, again.
2. New York Mets, 88-74. I think the Mets are a better team than we have seen, but they clearly are not what people thought they would be. Carlos Delgado may be out all year, Jose Reyes has missed a month already, JJ Putz is out for a month or two, and the team is all over the place. They have a great closer finally, and Johan Santana has been as good as ever, but the team plays awful defense and has yet to hit for power throughout the lineup.
3. Atlanta Braves 86-76. The team is very similar to the Mets in that they simply cannot get any offensive consistency. Their late game pitching has been very solid, for once. Their starters have been fine, probably the best in the division, but the defense has been average at best. The problem here is the offense. 3b Chipper Jones has been in and out of the lineup, and probably will be all year. Without him, they have no power hitting at all other than C Brian McCann. Add tot he fact that catchers wear down over the course of a season, and the Braves need Jones in the lineup to have any shot at the wildcard. RF Jeff Franceour has been awful, 2b Kelly Johnson has regressed, and LF Garrett Anderson is crappy. The Braves traded for CF Nate McLouth last week, which should add 3-4 wins to their total, both because of his offensive upgrade over Jordan Schafer and his top tier defense, but the team has too many holes right now to win the east. Still, I think the wildcard is obtainable, especially if the Cubs continue to stink.
4. Florida Marlins 77-85. They started 11-1, everyone thought they were the bees knees but most baseball realists knew this team simply doesnt have the defense, hitting, bullpen, or starters to maintain that pace. The biggest bright spot has been the pitching of ace righty Josh Johnson who is fully recovered and again dominant after his surgery of 2 seasons ago. He has pitched as well as anyone in baseball and is a major star in the making. 1b Jorge Cantu has had a nice year, but they have gotten average to below average production from their outfield and pretty much every spot ont he field but 1st and short (Hanley Ramirez). Their pen has been solid, aside from closer Matty Lidstrom. SP Annibal Sanchez is hurt again, SP Andrew Miller has not gotten better, and SP Ricky Nolasco has been all over the place. Their are very few bright spots so far for everyone's favorite offseason sleeper team.
5. Washington Nationals. 58-104. Wow. Just abysmal. Good news first: Offseason signee RF/LF Adam Dunn has been fantastic, hitting for power and for once, average as well (265 compared to 245 last year). CF Lastings Milledge was sent down, again. Possible maniac CF Elijah Dukes has been pretty good, hitting for power and playing slightly above average defense in Milledge's stead. 3b Ryan Zimmerman had a monster first 6 weeks and is certainly carrying his own, as are SS Cristian Guzman and 1b Nick Johnson. The bullpen has blown a ton of saves, and shows no sign of getting better. The Nats simply have no closer and everyone who has tried, has failed on an almost immeasurable scale. They have 4 rookies in their starting rotation, which I must confess to never having seen before. None of those pitchers (Sergio Martis, Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler, and Craig Stammen) has been awful, which is nice. In fact, Martis and Zimmermann have actually thrown pretty well, considering how bad the team is. The best thing anyone could say about the Nats is they will draft college stud Steevn Strasberg with their first overall pick. This kid can throw 102mph and doesnt walk anyone at all. So thats the best news of all in a world of bad news for Washington fans. Wait till next year, again.
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Updated NL West Predictions
NL WEST
1st. Dodgers 100-62: Manny Ramirez was suspended for 50 games and it has not slowed the team at all. They have since swept the Mets, taken 2 of 3 in Philly and also 2 of 3 in Florida. They have beaten everyone they have played, they have throttled the opposition at every turn, their bullpen has been great, their defense has been great, and their starting pitching has held together (multiple quality starts from Eric Milton, Jeff Weaver, and Eric Stults). Nothing can slow this team down. Juan Pierre has hit .400 for about a month now.
2nd. Arizona 80-82: Brandon Webb will come back soon, but it is far too late. This team does not work counts, does not hold leads, and is in general dissarray. The bullpen has blown huge leads over and over again and shows no signs of getting better. My guess is the fire sale starts soon, which could push them down to about 75 wins. Letting their young players develop is the best thing that can happen at this point.
3rd: San Francisco 79-83. This team just cannot hit, especially on the road. They have two of the top 10 pitchers in the NL (Cain and Lincecum), a rejuvenated and solid Barry Zito, a very good home record, but they score less than 4 runs a game which allows almost no room for mistakes. The Giants may have the worst infield in the league, playing the immoble Edgard Renteria (SS) and Juan Uribe (3b) on the left side of their infield. They may make a trade and get over 81 wins, but they are wasting their time because they cannot compete with Milwaukee, Atlanta, Philly, St Louis, Atlanta, or the Mets for the Wild Card.
4th: Colorado 70-92. I knew they would be bad but I did not know they would be this bad. They have already fired Clint Hurdle and replaced him with the worst manager in the game (Jim Tracy). Garrett Atkins (3b/1b) and Troy Tulowitzki (ss) have taken giants steps backwards as far as hitting, and their bullpen has imploded. Their pitching has not been as bad as usual, but the team is atrocious in one-run games, which leads me to think improvement is possibly. Todd Helton has had a great bounceback season and rookie CF Dexter Fowler looks like a special player. Other than that, there is no good news. Pretty much the same Rockies team we see every year (save for July-October 2007).
5th San Diego 67-95: I am amazed this team has won as much as they have. They are about .500 right now, even though they have basically tried to give away the entire team already. Jake Peavy is as good as gone, Tony Gwynn Jr is starting in center (along with 2-3 other everyday players who should not be in the league, namely Kevin Kouzmanoff and whoever plays short or second on any given day). The lone bright spots have been the incredible season and power of Adrian Gonzalez (why anyone pitches to him is beyond me), the solid play of Scott Hairson in left and center, and the fantastic shutdown closer Heath Bell, who has MORE than filled in for Trevor Hoffman and has only one blown save. The team has no choice but to play the hand they are dealt but their minors must be empty if they continue to start Kouzmanoff and Eckstein everyday.
1st. Dodgers 100-62: Manny Ramirez was suspended for 50 games and it has not slowed the team at all. They have since swept the Mets, taken 2 of 3 in Philly and also 2 of 3 in Florida. They have beaten everyone they have played, they have throttled the opposition at every turn, their bullpen has been great, their defense has been great, and their starting pitching has held together (multiple quality starts from Eric Milton, Jeff Weaver, and Eric Stults). Nothing can slow this team down. Juan Pierre has hit .400 for about a month now.
2nd. Arizona 80-82: Brandon Webb will come back soon, but it is far too late. This team does not work counts, does not hold leads, and is in general dissarray. The bullpen has blown huge leads over and over again and shows no signs of getting better. My guess is the fire sale starts soon, which could push them down to about 75 wins. Letting their young players develop is the best thing that can happen at this point.
3rd: San Francisco 79-83. This team just cannot hit, especially on the road. They have two of the top 10 pitchers in the NL (Cain and Lincecum), a rejuvenated and solid Barry Zito, a very good home record, but they score less than 4 runs a game which allows almost no room for mistakes. The Giants may have the worst infield in the league, playing the immoble Edgard Renteria (SS) and Juan Uribe (3b) on the left side of their infield. They may make a trade and get over 81 wins, but they are wasting their time because they cannot compete with Milwaukee, Atlanta, Philly, St Louis, Atlanta, or the Mets for the Wild Card.
4th: Colorado 70-92. I knew they would be bad but I did not know they would be this bad. They have already fired Clint Hurdle and replaced him with the worst manager in the game (Jim Tracy). Garrett Atkins (3b/1b) and Troy Tulowitzki (ss) have taken giants steps backwards as far as hitting, and their bullpen has imploded. Their pitching has not been as bad as usual, but the team is atrocious in one-run games, which leads me to think improvement is possibly. Todd Helton has had a great bounceback season and rookie CF Dexter Fowler looks like a special player. Other than that, there is no good news. Pretty much the same Rockies team we see every year (save for July-October 2007).
5th San Diego 67-95: I am amazed this team has won as much as they have. They are about .500 right now, even though they have basically tried to give away the entire team already. Jake Peavy is as good as gone, Tony Gwynn Jr is starting in center (along with 2-3 other everyday players who should not be in the league, namely Kevin Kouzmanoff and whoever plays short or second on any given day). The lone bright spots have been the incredible season and power of Adrian Gonzalez (why anyone pitches to him is beyond me), the solid play of Scott Hairson in left and center, and the fantastic shutdown closer Heath Bell, who has MORE than filled in for Trevor Hoffman and has only one blown save. The team has no choice but to play the hand they are dealt but their minors must be empty if they continue to start Kouzmanoff and Eckstein everyday.
Friday, May 22, 2009
NBA playoffs
I have been out of commission for a week, following nba playoffs and dealing with business. I will return very soon!
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
20% of the season gone, time to reassess
Allright, I am not prone to overreact based upon a small sample size, but because of injuries and a major suspension, I am going to do some new divisional and final record standings, with summarized reasons. I will do this again in June, July, August, and September. Today I will do the AL, tomorrow the senior circuit.
AL West:
1. Rangers 85-77. I know they don't have the pitching, but they do have the hitting, and suprisingly, the defense. Also, nobody knows how healthy the Angels pitching will be if/when it comes back.
2. Angels 84-78. I admit this is me being a bit hopeful, and it is subject to change in another month, but the Angels pen is a mess. The three best bullpen guys they have (Fuentes, Shields, and Arredondo) all have ERA's above 5.
3. Oakland 79-83. Injuries have throttled Oakland very early. Mark Ellis is out for awhile, Nomar is too (shocking), and they simply cannot hit thus far.
4. Seattle 75-87. I thought they would be worse than this, and I may still be right. They are going to be in last, they cannot hit. Their saving graces are twofold: they play great D, and they play in a garbage division. Still, I think Bedard is dealt by August.
AL Central.
1. Detroit 86-76. This one hurts the most, as I am no fan of the Tigers at all. In fact, I really thought Cleveland would have a big bounceback year, but I was wrong (as of now). Detroit has the best hitter in the league in Miguel Cabrera, and their defense has really gotten good by moving Inge back to third and acquring Adam Everett to play shost. Verlander's resurrection also helps.
2. Minnesota 82-80. Their pitching simply is not going to be as good as it was last year, it seems. Their young guys also have yet to make the leaps I expected of them (Casilla is in AAA, Young still swings at everything).
3. KC 81-81. They have gotten a ton out of the best pitcher in the AL (Zack Greinke) but the upside of their offense is nil, and with the back end of their rotation consisting of Sidney Ponson and Kyle Davies, they won't win this year.
4. Cleveland 77-85. Everything has gone wrong so far. Hafner has been good, but hurt. Cliff Lee has been great, but the team can't score when he pitches. The pen has been beyond bad, having one of the worst months I have ever seen in my life. They have blown small leads, big leads, come from behind to blow leads, come from ahead to blow them. The pen is awful. Just awful.
5. Chicago Whitesox 74-88. One thing I know, the WhiteSox are also garbage. They are old, they cant do anything but hit homers, they can't play D, and can't run. They have two good pitchers in Buerhle and Danks, but everyone else in the rotation may be out of it by July. Colon is awful. Contreas is awful, and Floyd is doubly awful.
AL East.
1. Boston 94-68 . Toughest division in baseball, by a mile. I had no idea it would be a 4 team race, but it will be. Toronto is here to stay. Boston is still great, and Ortiz has done nothing, and Smoltz is still out. I can only imagine they will get better.
2. Tampa 90-72. I am probably alone in believing this team still has enough to do it again, but I do. They still play great d, they still steal bases and get on base, they still have good pitchers. The problem is the pen, but I think it gets better. Or at least I hope so.
3. Yankees 89-73. Mariano Rivera is getting older, still good, not great. Joba Chamberlain is good, but can't get past the sixth. The team is old, and has no speed and no healthy catcher. I am sure they will start hitting, but I don't think they have the chemistry or bullpen to win this division, or make the playoffs.
4. Blue Jays 85-77. I had no idea this team would hit like this, and I know it will cool off, but it has yet to. Their starters have been incredible, they are loaded with pitching. Just imagine what happens if they get Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum back. Wow!
5. Orioles 73-89. They can hit, no doubt about it. But they have no pen and no starters, at all. They are going to be very good, very soon. not this year though. They simply have no pitching or pen. But they do have chemistry, and they do have offense, a ton of it!
AL West:
1. Rangers 85-77. I know they don't have the pitching, but they do have the hitting, and suprisingly, the defense. Also, nobody knows how healthy the Angels pitching will be if/when it comes back.
2. Angels 84-78. I admit this is me being a bit hopeful, and it is subject to change in another month, but the Angels pen is a mess. The three best bullpen guys they have (Fuentes, Shields, and Arredondo) all have ERA's above 5.
3. Oakland 79-83. Injuries have throttled Oakland very early. Mark Ellis is out for awhile, Nomar is too (shocking), and they simply cannot hit thus far.
4. Seattle 75-87. I thought they would be worse than this, and I may still be right. They are going to be in last, they cannot hit. Their saving graces are twofold: they play great D, and they play in a garbage division. Still, I think Bedard is dealt by August.
AL Central.
1. Detroit 86-76. This one hurts the most, as I am no fan of the Tigers at all. In fact, I really thought Cleveland would have a big bounceback year, but I was wrong (as of now). Detroit has the best hitter in the league in Miguel Cabrera, and their defense has really gotten good by moving Inge back to third and acquring Adam Everett to play shost. Verlander's resurrection also helps.
2. Minnesota 82-80. Their pitching simply is not going to be as good as it was last year, it seems. Their young guys also have yet to make the leaps I expected of them (Casilla is in AAA, Young still swings at everything).
3. KC 81-81. They have gotten a ton out of the best pitcher in the AL (Zack Greinke) but the upside of their offense is nil, and with the back end of their rotation consisting of Sidney Ponson and Kyle Davies, they won't win this year.
4. Cleveland 77-85. Everything has gone wrong so far. Hafner has been good, but hurt. Cliff Lee has been great, but the team can't score when he pitches. The pen has been beyond bad, having one of the worst months I have ever seen in my life. They have blown small leads, big leads, come from behind to blow leads, come from ahead to blow them. The pen is awful. Just awful.
5. Chicago Whitesox 74-88. One thing I know, the WhiteSox are also garbage. They are old, they cant do anything but hit homers, they can't play D, and can't run. They have two good pitchers in Buerhle and Danks, but everyone else in the rotation may be out of it by July. Colon is awful. Contreas is awful, and Floyd is doubly awful.
AL East.
1. Boston 94-68 . Toughest division in baseball, by a mile. I had no idea it would be a 4 team race, but it will be. Toronto is here to stay. Boston is still great, and Ortiz has done nothing, and Smoltz is still out. I can only imagine they will get better.
2. Tampa 90-72. I am probably alone in believing this team still has enough to do it again, but I do. They still play great d, they still steal bases and get on base, they still have good pitchers. The problem is the pen, but I think it gets better. Or at least I hope so.
3. Yankees 89-73. Mariano Rivera is getting older, still good, not great. Joba Chamberlain is good, but can't get past the sixth. The team is old, and has no speed and no healthy catcher. I am sure they will start hitting, but I don't think they have the chemistry or bullpen to win this division, or make the playoffs.
4. Blue Jays 85-77. I had no idea this team would hit like this, and I know it will cool off, but it has yet to. Their starters have been incredible, they are loaded with pitching. Just imagine what happens if they get Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum back. Wow!
5. Orioles 73-89. They can hit, no doubt about it. But they have no pen and no starters, at all. They are going to be very good, very soon. not this year though. They simply have no pitching or pen. But they do have chemistry, and they do have offense, a ton of it!
Friday, May 8, 2009
Tigers (Verlander) @ Indians (Lee)
Should be a fun game to watch, two different pitchers, different styles, and the Indians simply cannot score for him, or hold leads:
Top 1: Apparently Cletus Thomas is going to be playing every single day now, and is batting third with Carlos Guillen on the DL. Ordonez is now DHing regularly I believe. Granderson leads off today, and batted 5th a few days ago. Jim Leyland is all over the place with this Tigers team. They just arent very good, I think. Granderson flies out to start, and Polanco does the same one pitch later. Lee is dealing strikes right now, as he did last year, getting batters to get themselves out, since he isnt a dominant strikeout guy. Thomas grounds one up the middle, weakly hit but enough to notch himself at first base. The best hitter in the AL steps up to bat now, Cabrera. After about 5 or 6 pitches on the corners, he pops out.
Bottom 1: Sizemore leads off the game for Cleveland now. Verlander has been on fire for a few starts now, but I will believe it is legit when he does it all year long, and on the road. He is a big phony. Sizemore k's on a letter high outside fastball. Nice pitch. Cabrera cracks a single to left field, slightly into the gap (but not really), he is thrown out by about 30 feet stretching. Bad move. Really bad move. Martinez works the count full, and cracks the hell out of the ball, but Polanco snow cones it, robbing him of a single.
Top 2: Ordonez singles down the 1st base line to lead off. Luckily, Inge is up next. The guy swings at anything. 3 pitches later, he is out on strikes. Par for the course, says I. Raburn ends the inning on one more pitch, 6-4-3 DP.
Bottom 2: Choo pops out to very short left field. The Indians would do well to work counts and get this guy out of here, and into that shoddy pen of Detroit. DeRosa strikes out on 3 pitches, and swings at a heater above his belt. Dellucci can't check his swing and thats 3 k's for Verlander, and less than 30 pitches. Not where the Indians need to be today.
Top 3: Everett leads off. Lee is also under 30 pitches, and he is throwing nothing but strikes so far. Full count fastball is driven on the ground to right, single for Everett. 1-2 breaking ball in the dirt, swing on and missed by Sardina, who made Lee work for that K. Granderson pops out to right. Polanco is up, trying to make somethng happen after the leadoff single. He drives one deep and almost gone, off the very top of the wall in left! Cletus Thomas pops out to left on the first pitch, threat ended.
Bottom 3: Francisco strikes out looking on a knee buckling curve. Valbuena walks on 4 pitches. Shoppach can't hold up on a breaking ball, K. Sizemore flies out to medium right. No score after 3.
Top 4: Cabrera grounds out to third to begin the inning. Ordonez walks on 5 pitches. Inge hits one to left field for a single. Raburn flies out to deep right, and with 2 down, Ordonez moves to third. Everett is up now, first pitch ground out to short, another threat over. Eventually, one would think the Tigers would break thru here...
Bottom 4: Cabrera comes up, Verlander is at only 45 pitches to start the 4th. Cabrera grounds out to first, another weak out for Cleveland. Another K for Verlander, his 6th, as Martinez goes down swinging. Choo hits one on the ground to short for the final out. Verlanders pitch count remains low.
Top 5: Sardina pops out on pitch number 60 for Lee. This game is flying by, in a bad way. Slow and not at all riveting like some 0-0 games. This one is devoid of any kind of scoring threats. Hell, both of the Tigers threats were with 2 down. Granderson goes down swinging on a down and away changeup. Lee is pretty much cruising, though not like Verlander. Polanco pops out to shallow center. Very fast inning.
Bottom 5: DeRosa leads off, Cleveland has yet to get a leadoff runner. Line drive out though, right at Cabrera at first. Nice swing though. Dellucci grounds out to second. This game may end up 1-0 or so. It all depends upon just how bad Cleveland's god awful bullpen is. Francisco hits a sinking bloop down the line, or near it, but he is robbed on a diving catch by LF Rayburn. Inning over.
Top 6: Cletus Thomas grounds out to second. Cabrera thru the left side hole for a 1 out single. Ordonez takes strike 3 called and Cabrera is thrown out on the hit and run.
Bottom 6: In the last 3 games, Lee has 1 run of offensive support. That is shameful for this offense, the best in the AL Central, I think. Valbuena is up now, looking to get on for the 2nd time tonite. He strikes out on a very very high fastball. Shoppach also K's, looking at a called strike three on the outside corner. Verlander is absolutely rolling. Sizemore up with 2 down now. He drives one to the wall but Granderson runs it down and saves a triple. Fairly routine play, but very well hit.
Top 7: Inge leads off the inning. 6 hits so far for Detroit, but only 1 for Cleveland. He flies out to centerfield. Other than Polanco, nobody on Detroit has hit the ball well at all, thus far. Rayburn with a very weak grounder to short. 2 down. Everett bloops a fly to center, 7 shutout for Lee.
Bottom 7: Cabrera swings and misses on another waist high outside fastball. That is 9 K's now for Verlander. Martinez hits one off the wall for a double, first time all day Cleveland has any threat whatsoever. Choo has a chance to get a run home here. Choo lines one to the hole at short but Everett robs him, and catches Martinez off the bag for a double play. 0-0 after 7. Good god.
Top 8: Sardina leads off the inning, Lee needs to get him out because the top of the order is up next. Strikes out looking on a fastball on the outside corner. Looks like the Cliff Lee of 2008 so far tonite. Granderson walks and I imagine he will be running soon. Granderson takes off and Shoppach makes a high throw, the call is safe at 2nd. He had Granderson by a mile if he made a good throw, but it was awful. Polanco now has a big chance here. Big trouble for Lee. Polanco grounds out to short, but Thomas is up and already has a single off Lee earlier. Slow grounder to second. Valbuena has it stick in his glove and the run scores on an error. The scorer gave him a single, but rest assured, it was a completely routine ground ball. It was an error. That will probably win the game with the way Verlander is pitching. Shameful way to lose, if they do.
Bottom 8: DeRosa leads off the bottom 8th with a strikeout. That is 10 now for Verlander. Dellucci grounds out to second, 2 down. Francisco pops up to 2nd, inning over. Shameful performance by the Tribe, at home, with a GREAT start by Lee, no less. This team is a joke.
Top 9: Rafael Betancourt is in for Lee now. Betancourt sucks. Ordonez flies out to center, 1 down. Inge up, and on an 0-2 breaking ball, swings and misses. Cliff Lee is steaming in the dugout, like someone took a dump on his porch. He is mad, rightfully so I would say. Rayburn pops out to shallow center. Inning over.
Bottom 9: Now or never for the Tribe. Verlander stays in to finish the shutout. No reason he won't. Valbuena leads off the inning. He is trying to make amends for his misplay, even though ruled a hit, it was not. Full count to Valbuena, HUGE pitch upcoming. He reaches base on the walk. Two walks today for Valbuena, 2 walks for Verlander. Strange but true fact of the day. Shoppach lays down a bunt, a bad one, and Valbuena is out at 2nd. Free out for Verlander. Bad bunt by Cleveland. Eric Wedge has done a shoddy job managing this year, I think. Josh Barfield pinch runs for Shoppach, and Sizemore is up now. Barfield may be running. 2-2 count to Sizemore here. It's a shame the Indians could not move the runner over with no outs. Sizemore hit one over the wall but Granderson pulls it back over the wall. WOW! What a play. Cabrera up now, last chance. Thats a top 5 play I have ever seen, I might add. Cabrera strikes out to end the game.
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Top 1: Apparently Cletus Thomas is going to be playing every single day now, and is batting third with Carlos Guillen on the DL. Ordonez is now DHing regularly I believe. Granderson leads off today, and batted 5th a few days ago. Jim Leyland is all over the place with this Tigers team. They just arent very good, I think. Granderson flies out to start, and Polanco does the same one pitch later. Lee is dealing strikes right now, as he did last year, getting batters to get themselves out, since he isnt a dominant strikeout guy. Thomas grounds one up the middle, weakly hit but enough to notch himself at first base. The best hitter in the AL steps up to bat now, Cabrera. After about 5 or 6 pitches on the corners, he pops out.
Bottom 1: Sizemore leads off the game for Cleveland now. Verlander has been on fire for a few starts now, but I will believe it is legit when he does it all year long, and on the road. He is a big phony. Sizemore k's on a letter high outside fastball. Nice pitch. Cabrera cracks a single to left field, slightly into the gap (but not really), he is thrown out by about 30 feet stretching. Bad move. Really bad move. Martinez works the count full, and cracks the hell out of the ball, but Polanco snow cones it, robbing him of a single.
Top 2: Ordonez singles down the 1st base line to lead off. Luckily, Inge is up next. The guy swings at anything. 3 pitches later, he is out on strikes. Par for the course, says I. Raburn ends the inning on one more pitch, 6-4-3 DP.
Bottom 2: Choo pops out to very short left field. The Indians would do well to work counts and get this guy out of here, and into that shoddy pen of Detroit. DeRosa strikes out on 3 pitches, and swings at a heater above his belt. Dellucci can't check his swing and thats 3 k's for Verlander, and less than 30 pitches. Not where the Indians need to be today.
Top 3: Everett leads off. Lee is also under 30 pitches, and he is throwing nothing but strikes so far. Full count fastball is driven on the ground to right, single for Everett. 1-2 breaking ball in the dirt, swing on and missed by Sardina, who made Lee work for that K. Granderson pops out to right. Polanco is up, trying to make somethng happen after the leadoff single. He drives one deep and almost gone, off the very top of the wall in left! Cletus Thomas pops out to left on the first pitch, threat ended.
Bottom 3: Francisco strikes out looking on a knee buckling curve. Valbuena walks on 4 pitches. Shoppach can't hold up on a breaking ball, K. Sizemore flies out to medium right. No score after 3.
Top 4: Cabrera grounds out to third to begin the inning. Ordonez walks on 5 pitches. Inge hits one to left field for a single. Raburn flies out to deep right, and with 2 down, Ordonez moves to third. Everett is up now, first pitch ground out to short, another threat over. Eventually, one would think the Tigers would break thru here...
Bottom 4: Cabrera comes up, Verlander is at only 45 pitches to start the 4th. Cabrera grounds out to first, another weak out for Cleveland. Another K for Verlander, his 6th, as Martinez goes down swinging. Choo hits one on the ground to short for the final out. Verlanders pitch count remains low.
Top 5: Sardina pops out on pitch number 60 for Lee. This game is flying by, in a bad way. Slow and not at all riveting like some 0-0 games. This one is devoid of any kind of scoring threats. Hell, both of the Tigers threats were with 2 down. Granderson goes down swinging on a down and away changeup. Lee is pretty much cruising, though not like Verlander. Polanco pops out to shallow center. Very fast inning.
Bottom 5: DeRosa leads off, Cleveland has yet to get a leadoff runner. Line drive out though, right at Cabrera at first. Nice swing though. Dellucci grounds out to second. This game may end up 1-0 or so. It all depends upon just how bad Cleveland's god awful bullpen is. Francisco hits a sinking bloop down the line, or near it, but he is robbed on a diving catch by LF Rayburn. Inning over.
Top 6: Cletus Thomas grounds out to second. Cabrera thru the left side hole for a 1 out single. Ordonez takes strike 3 called and Cabrera is thrown out on the hit and run.
Bottom 6: In the last 3 games, Lee has 1 run of offensive support. That is shameful for this offense, the best in the AL Central, I think. Valbuena is up now, looking to get on for the 2nd time tonite. He strikes out on a very very high fastball. Shoppach also K's, looking at a called strike three on the outside corner. Verlander is absolutely rolling. Sizemore up with 2 down now. He drives one to the wall but Granderson runs it down and saves a triple. Fairly routine play, but very well hit.
Top 7: Inge leads off the inning. 6 hits so far for Detroit, but only 1 for Cleveland. He flies out to centerfield. Other than Polanco, nobody on Detroit has hit the ball well at all, thus far. Rayburn with a very weak grounder to short. 2 down. Everett bloops a fly to center, 7 shutout for Lee.
Bottom 7: Cabrera swings and misses on another waist high outside fastball. That is 9 K's now for Verlander. Martinez hits one off the wall for a double, first time all day Cleveland has any threat whatsoever. Choo has a chance to get a run home here. Choo lines one to the hole at short but Everett robs him, and catches Martinez off the bag for a double play. 0-0 after 7. Good god.
Top 8: Sardina leads off the inning, Lee needs to get him out because the top of the order is up next. Strikes out looking on a fastball on the outside corner. Looks like the Cliff Lee of 2008 so far tonite. Granderson walks and I imagine he will be running soon. Granderson takes off and Shoppach makes a high throw, the call is safe at 2nd. He had Granderson by a mile if he made a good throw, but it was awful. Polanco now has a big chance here. Big trouble for Lee. Polanco grounds out to short, but Thomas is up and already has a single off Lee earlier. Slow grounder to second. Valbuena has it stick in his glove and the run scores on an error. The scorer gave him a single, but rest assured, it was a completely routine ground ball. It was an error. That will probably win the game with the way Verlander is pitching. Shameful way to lose, if they do.
Bottom 8: DeRosa leads off the bottom 8th with a strikeout. That is 10 now for Verlander. Dellucci grounds out to second, 2 down. Francisco pops up to 2nd, inning over. Shameful performance by the Tribe, at home, with a GREAT start by Lee, no less. This team is a joke.
Top 9: Rafael Betancourt is in for Lee now. Betancourt sucks. Ordonez flies out to center, 1 down. Inge up, and on an 0-2 breaking ball, swings and misses. Cliff Lee is steaming in the dugout, like someone took a dump on his porch. He is mad, rightfully so I would say. Rayburn pops out to shallow center. Inning over.
Bottom 9: Now or never for the Tribe. Verlander stays in to finish the shutout. No reason he won't. Valbuena leads off the inning. He is trying to make amends for his misplay, even though ruled a hit, it was not. Full count to Valbuena, HUGE pitch upcoming. He reaches base on the walk. Two walks today for Valbuena, 2 walks for Verlander. Strange but true fact of the day. Shoppach lays down a bunt, a bad one, and Valbuena is out at 2nd. Free out for Verlander. Bad bunt by Cleveland. Eric Wedge has done a shoddy job managing this year, I think. Josh Barfield pinch runs for Shoppach, and Sizemore is up now. Barfield may be running. 2-2 count to Sizemore here. It's a shame the Indians could not move the runner over with no outs. Sizemore hit one over the wall but Granderson pulls it back over the wall. WOW! What a play. Cabrera up now, last chance. Thats a top 5 play I have ever seen, I might add. Cabrera strikes out to end the game.
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Phils (Park) vs Mets (Santana)
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My favorite team in the NL (Philly) vs my least favorite. Best pitcher in baseball perhaps (Santana) bs the worst. Should be fun.
Top 1: Rollins k's on a sweet changeup and Victorino pops up to second. 2 down very fast. Utley is back in the lineup after missing a few games, and works a full count walk. Howard comes up with 2 down and 1 on and strikes out on a high fastball.
Bottom 1: Phils Manager Charlie Manuel says this may be Park's last start, if he sucks, which he does, so it will be interesting to see how he does. Reyes grounds out to first to leadoff. Cora pops up, 2 down. Beltran strikes out looking and its on to the second.
Top 2: Werth leads off with a strikeout on a 1-2 changeup. He looks good today. Ibanez strikes out looking, thats 4 k's already for Johan. Feliz strikes out also. That's 5.
Bottom 2: Delgado flies out to very short center. Wright walks on 4 pitches and the Mets finally have a baserunner. I say finally because the Mets shold have like 8 runs by now. Park makes Vicente Padilla look like AJ Burnett. Park is horrible. Awful. Garbage. Wright is thrown out attempting to steal second. Murphy k's to end the inning.
Top 3: On an 0-2 pitch, Ruiz grounds out to third. No his for Phils thus far. Park draws a 5 pitch walk, somehow! Second runner on so far. Rollins is up now. First pitch swinging, drives a single into left-center, Park moves on to second. Victorino grounds out to first, both runers advance into scoring position for Utley. He grounds out to second, side retired.
Bottom 3: Reed strikes out to lead it off. Santos pops up to first. Park looks solid right now, I do not expect it to last. I want to reiterate this: he sucks. Santana strikes out, thats 4 now for Park.
Top 4: Howard k's again, to lead off. Werth k's next, that's 7 already. Ibanez strikes out but reaches on the passed ball. Thats 8 now for Johan. The guy is somehting else. Feliz groundsout to pitcher and the inning ends.
Bottom 4: Reyes drives one to the track but Werth runs it down. The Mets are a joke of a team, they have no chemistry, they do not seem to enjoy playing with each other, whereas the Phils seem like the best of friends. IF Santana were on a team worth a damn, he would win 22 games every single year. Cora lines out to short on the first pitch he sees, 2 down. Beltran, probably the only Met who is carrying his weight, comes up with 2 down. He grounds out to first, no hitter thru 4.
Top 5: Ruiz pops out to center. Thats just the first ball the Phils have hit into the outfield, aside from Rollins single. Park is up again. For the second time today, Park walks. Suprising. Rollins can't drive him in though, as he fouls out to first. 2 down. Victorino pops out to center. Still no score.
Bottom 5: Delgado drives the first pitch very deep, but very foul. Next pitch hits Delgado and the Mets have just their second runner of the day. Wright,m continuing his awful year, is jammed on a 2-0 heater and grounds to Feliz, who starts the double play. The no hitter ends on the next pitch, as Murphy drives a two out double to deep left-center. It was a pretty routine fly ball but Ibanez could not get to it. That should have been an out, we will see if the Mets can make it hurt. Reed works the count full, and rolls over a breaking ball and grounds out to Utley. 0-0.
Top 6: Utley drives one right in front of the wall but it is caught. Howard grounds out to first. Werth strikes out for the third time. Santana has 9 k's now.
Bottom 6: Santos strikes out on 5 pitches. Santana drives one deep but the park holds it. Reyes hits one into the hole and Howard stabs it on a dive, but Park drops it and Reyes reaches base on the error. Cora is up now, and Reyes will be running, I would imagine. The Mets, due to the fact they are worthless, need to create runs somehow, and sending Reyes is pretty obvious. Reyes bluffs and Cora takes a ball outside, 2-1 count. Fastball count now, and Reyes steals 2nd, taking third on the throwing error by Ruiz. Cora walks, runners on the corners for Beltran now. This inning should be over, and frankly, Park should have a no hitter still. Beltran, on a 3-1 count, pops up to left field to end the inning. WOW! Still 0-0!
Top 7: Ibanez doubles to lead it off, but the next two batters go quietly, unable to advance the runner to third. Park is pinch hit for, and Eric Bruntlett steps up with 2 down. Bruntlett k's, making it 10 on the day for Santana.
Bottom 7: Scott Eyre is in for Park, if only to face Delgado. Delgado walks on a full count fastball. David Wright is up now, and they are leaving Delgado in to run for himself, and leaving Eyre in to pitch vs a guy who destroys lefties. Wright pops up on a 3-1 fastball. 1 out and Eyre is left in due to the 2 lefties after Wright, Manuel's gamble pays off. Eyre gets Murphy to fly out, and Manuel makes a change and brings in Chad Durbin with 2 down. Fernando Tatis is called in to pinch hit, as he is 1-1 career vs Durbin, with a homer. A slow grounder rolls out to third, and Feliz throws it into the outfield, Delgado hustles all the way around and scores. What a horrid way to allow a run. Feliz is normally a great fielder, he had no chance to get Tatis and first and should not have made the throw. Gary Sheffield pinch hits for Santos. 3 errors for Philly today, first unearned run they have allowed all season long! Very strange play by Feliz. Ryan Church now pinch hits for Santana. So he will get the win, if it holds. Church strikes out, but a run is scored. 1-0 Mets, time for the bullpen.
Top 8: Pedro Feliciano comes in, and Rollins grounds out to him to start the inning. Victorino bloops one on the first base line for a double. Utley grounds out to pitcher, runner stays put at 2nd. Howard strikes out to end the top half.
Bottom 8: Reyes lines out to left. Cora flies out to deep right. Beltran k's. On to the 9th.
Top 9: K-Rod is in to nail it down for the Mets. Werth grounds out to third. Ibanez pops out to center and Matty Stairs is in to pinch hit for Feliz. He pops up to end the game. Hell of a game. Tough loss though.
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Twins (Blackburn) @ Tigers (Procello)
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One of my favorite teams (Minnestoa) versus one of my most hated teams. I expect a Minnesota win here versus a garbage Tigers team who has yet to hit the ball this year.
Top 1: A quick and uneventful 1-2-3 inning.
Bottom 1: 2nd batter up (Polcano) walks, and AAA callup Cletus Thomas immediately doubles and sends Polanco to third, which means a very careful AB for Cabrera, I'd guess. They pitch to him, he grounds out to third, but a run scores as Thomas stays put on 2nd. 1-0 Detroit. Granderson hits a grounder up the middle but he is robbed on a diving stop by Punto to save the run.
Top 2: 1 out single for Kubel is the first Twins hit of the day. Crede hits into a 6-4-3 DP to end it.
Bottom 2: Ordonez, slumping badly with no power at all, is batting sixth and grounds out on one pitch. Inge does the same, on 3 pitches. Laird walks but a 2 out double by Santiago scores him, 2-0 Tigers. Anderson bloops one to left but Young misplays it, another run scores, 3-0 Tigers, with Anderson at 2nd. Another error by the Twins as Casilla muffs a grounder, 1st and 3rd, still two outs. Thomas then hits a sinking liner to right and Cuddyer misplays it, 2 more runs score, 5-0 Tigers. Wow, what an awful inning for the Twins. Another run scores and its 6-0. this game is over.
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