So once again, just as in 2009, we have ourselves the best defense in baseball, combined with the worst offense in the league.
The masters of run prevention continue to win at home and lose on the road and score very rarely in both places.
As of right now, they are 11th in Batting Average, 13th in OBP and Slugging, 12th in Runs, and 2 games below .500. Granted, they have yet to have top 10 pitcher Cliff Lee, who has been injured since spring training, but his arrival wont score a single run for this team.
Apparently adding Chone Figgins does not help your offense much, unless he brings Kendry Morales, Vlad Guerrero, Juan Rivera, Torii Hunter, and Bobby Abreau with him from the Angels.
I understand the Mariners felt adding a great glue guy, good defender, and stolen base threat like Figgins would help them score more runs, and I think it will, but he is not a game changer, and never has been. So they essentially have 2 leadoff hitters in Figgins and Ichiro, neither of whom has any power whatsoever, and both of whom are followed in the lineup by decent but powerless hitters in CF Gutierrez and 1b Casey Kotchman, not to mention the other 4 dead bats they have in the lineup as well.
Any team playing Ken Griffey as a DH is not too interested in scoring runs, or taking their team's playoff chances seriously. They have another great defender but zero at the plate in SS Jack Wilson. So in addition to Griffey and Wilson, what do the Mariners do to score more runs? Well, they add .200 hitter Rob Johnson to their everyday lineup, platoon Eric Byrnes, who has been done for 3 years, in left field, and give Matt Tuiasasopo regular starts at corner infield positions.
I expect this team's pitching to be just fine, and it has been, for the most part. Ian Snell is crap and I knew he would be, but he will lose his spot as soon as Lee comes back this weekend. Another problem is an unproven bullpen, coming off career years for everyone. I expect more regression for the Mariners' bullpen than any other in the league. I will be very surprised if Seattle can approach last years' win total of 85 games. But then , the Giants surprise me daily by winning with a dogshit offense. Go figure.
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Thursday, April 22, 2010
2010 NL East Preview
Forgot to do my win totals
Phils 96-66: problem area will be, as always, the bullpen. The only thing that can keep down the NL's best offense is the worst pen in the NL. Yes, thats right, the worst pen in the NL. Get Lidge back and at least they can move Madson to 8th inning guy where he seems to thrive.
Atlanta 88-74: problem area: the most inconsistent top tiered offense in baseball, you never know what you will get from them. They have an amazing talent in rookie RF Jason Heyward, but they have an always injured 1b in Troy Glaus and 3b Chipper Jones. They will get minimal production, albeit great defense, out of CF Nate McLouth and LF Melky Cabrera, but they have very weird chemistry, I do not know why.
Mets 80-82: If righty Mike Pelfrey can turn the corner and become a good #2, if the team can hit and SS Jose Reyes stays healthy at the top of the order, and if they can find some pitching after Johan Santana, this team could have a decent bounceback year and hang around until August or September. There is not much potential for them beyond 500 however. Perhaps 1b prospect Ike Davis can give the team a power bat they have yet to find, at least in their new ballpark.
Florida Marlins 78-84: I know everyone is high on this team, but their defense is abysmal, as is their bullpen. They have young pitchers that just dont seem to get going, other than Josh Johnson, and those are the keys to the team. Will Ricky Nolasco or Annibal Sanchez ever produce that they are capable of? If they do, then the team can contend for a wild card. Offense is not a problem. The Fish have a top 5 offensive player in SS Hanley Ramirez. 1b Jorge Cantu can rake, LF Chris Colghan and CF Cody Ross are also very good hitters. The bullpen is horrid, and closer Leo Nunez is going to make every 1 run lead into a major adventure.
Washington 73-89: help is on the way. Megaprospect Steven Strausburg should come up sometime in May or June, giving them essentially one major league starting pitcher (which is better than zero I guess). There is no doubt the team can hit: 1b Adam Dunn should hit 35 + hrs, 3b Ryan Zimmerman is a rising star, SS Ian Desmond is also a huge prospect. Josh Willingham can hit, though his defense is brutal too . Their bullpen problems mirror Philly's, but they dont have the offense or defense to make up for it. Nor do they have Roy Halladay, for that matter. Maybe next year Nats!
Phils 96-66: problem area will be, as always, the bullpen. The only thing that can keep down the NL's best offense is the worst pen in the NL. Yes, thats right, the worst pen in the NL. Get Lidge back and at least they can move Madson to 8th inning guy where he seems to thrive.
Atlanta 88-74: problem area: the most inconsistent top tiered offense in baseball, you never know what you will get from them. They have an amazing talent in rookie RF Jason Heyward, but they have an always injured 1b in Troy Glaus and 3b Chipper Jones. They will get minimal production, albeit great defense, out of CF Nate McLouth and LF Melky Cabrera, but they have very weird chemistry, I do not know why.
Mets 80-82: If righty Mike Pelfrey can turn the corner and become a good #2, if the team can hit and SS Jose Reyes stays healthy at the top of the order, and if they can find some pitching after Johan Santana, this team could have a decent bounceback year and hang around until August or September. There is not much potential for them beyond 500 however. Perhaps 1b prospect Ike Davis can give the team a power bat they have yet to find, at least in their new ballpark.
Florida Marlins 78-84: I know everyone is high on this team, but their defense is abysmal, as is their bullpen. They have young pitchers that just dont seem to get going, other than Josh Johnson, and those are the keys to the team. Will Ricky Nolasco or Annibal Sanchez ever produce that they are capable of? If they do, then the team can contend for a wild card. Offense is not a problem. The Fish have a top 5 offensive player in SS Hanley Ramirez. 1b Jorge Cantu can rake, LF Chris Colghan and CF Cody Ross are also very good hitters. The bullpen is horrid, and closer Leo Nunez is going to make every 1 run lead into a major adventure.
Washington 73-89: help is on the way. Megaprospect Steven Strausburg should come up sometime in May or June, giving them essentially one major league starting pitcher (which is better than zero I guess). There is no doubt the team can hit: 1b Adam Dunn should hit 35 + hrs, 3b Ryan Zimmerman is a rising star, SS Ian Desmond is also a huge prospect. Josh Willingham can hit, though his defense is brutal too . Their bullpen problems mirror Philly's, but they dont have the offense or defense to make up for it. Nor do they have Roy Halladay, for that matter. Maybe next year Nats!
Thursday, April 15, 2010
White Sox
With the major league's most overrated starter in Jake Peavy, along with the biggest bunch of underachievers (Andruw Jones, Alex Rios, possibly Carlos Quentin), this team will have a bottom 5 AL offense. I was never under the impression they would be good, but watching them play would make any baseball purist vomit.
Their defense is below average at ss, 1b, and 3b. Their outfield cannot hit (outside of Quentin, whose career year 2 years ago seems light years away). Juan Pierre is a cool dude and all, but he sucks. Alex Rios is not a cool dude, and sucks.
You may ask, "Ryan, why is Alexi Rios not a cool dude?"
Thank you for asking. A few years ago I was enjoying a $9 mojito in the Skydome Hard RockCafe, watching batting practice at about 330 pm or so. Alex Rios is fielding fly balls. He turns around, looks at me, and throws a ball off the plexiglass window. It is what a moronic 11 year old would do. and this is a $15 million dollar former all star. He will never hit like he used to, he is a lazy jerk who sucks at baseball. What kind if dude throws a baseball at fans, even if protected by a window? In retrospect, I wish that ball had hit me in the face.
I could have used the money.
Their defense is below average at ss, 1b, and 3b. Their outfield cannot hit (outside of Quentin, whose career year 2 years ago seems light years away). Juan Pierre is a cool dude and all, but he sucks. Alex Rios is not a cool dude, and sucks.
You may ask, "Ryan, why is Alexi Rios not a cool dude?"
Thank you for asking. A few years ago I was enjoying a $9 mojito in the Skydome Hard RockCafe, watching batting practice at about 330 pm or so. Alex Rios is fielding fly balls. He turns around, looks at me, and throws a ball off the plexiglass window. It is what a moronic 11 year old would do. and this is a $15 million dollar former all star. He will never hit like he used to, he is a lazy jerk who sucks at baseball. What kind if dude throws a baseball at fans, even if protected by a window? In retrospect, I wish that ball had hit me in the face.
I could have used the money.
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Angels
Once again, the Yanks shred the Angels. Dont let the final tally confound you, it was an asskicking. The Angels hitting will come around, Im sure. Brandon Wood sucks but the rest of them are fine. The pitching is becoming a problem. The pen was mediocre to begin with, gone are the dominant days of Scot Shields and Frankie Rodriguez. The loss of John Lackey looms larger every single day, due to the continued ineffectiveness of Ervin Santana. Also worth noting are :
a: Joe Saunders sucks and always has, his record neevr indicates his true value, and eventually, maybe now, it will come back to Earth.
b: Matt Palmer sucks, obviously, though he is probably just a space filler for Scott Kazmir who also kinda sucks, but is less sucky then Palmer and Saunders by far.
c: Jered Weaver is good, but if he is your ace, you better have some insanely deep staff. The Angels do not have an insanely deep staff. They have a solid 1-5, nothing near All-Star caliber though.
d: Losing Chone Figgins will hurt just as much on defense as on offense. He is a glue guy, an OBP guy, a gold glover, a base stealer, and an igniter. He hits from both sides, takes pitches, and does every single thing a winning team needs. He is replaced by yet another highly-touted (and most likely future flameout like the rest) Angels minor leaguer.
Wood better pick it up fast, especially in the field, or this team will be 7 games back by the end of the month. Oaklands pitching and pen are fantastic, as are Texas', so its going to be a race all year.
Seattle sucks. A blind retard knows this.
a: Joe Saunders sucks and always has, his record neevr indicates his true value, and eventually, maybe now, it will come back to Earth.
b: Matt Palmer sucks, obviously, though he is probably just a space filler for Scott Kazmir who also kinda sucks, but is less sucky then Palmer and Saunders by far.
c: Jered Weaver is good, but if he is your ace, you better have some insanely deep staff. The Angels do not have an insanely deep staff. They have a solid 1-5, nothing near All-Star caliber though.
d: Losing Chone Figgins will hurt just as much on defense as on offense. He is a glue guy, an OBP guy, a gold glover, a base stealer, and an igniter. He hits from both sides, takes pitches, and does every single thing a winning team needs. He is replaced by yet another highly-touted (and most likely future flameout like the rest) Angels minor leaguer.
Wood better pick it up fast, especially in the field, or this team will be 7 games back by the end of the month. Oaklands pitching and pen are fantastic, as are Texas', so its going to be a race all year.
Seattle sucks. A blind retard knows this.
Monday, April 12, 2010
MAriners
Sea outscored by 50 runs last year and was above 500
guess the luck is evening out this year.
learn to hit
take griffey out of the lineup. Defense may save runs but they dont work counts, take pitches, get into pens.
They cant score
Chone Figgins didnt bring Abreau and Morales with him, apparently.
guess the luck is evening out this year.
learn to hit
take griffey out of the lineup. Defense may save runs but they dont work counts, take pitches, get into pens.
They cant score
Chone Figgins didnt bring Abreau and Morales with him, apparently.
things I have learned so far today
1. The Royals are awful but maybe they will score more this year, if only because Podsednik can create a little havoc on base, and Billy Butler may become an all star.
2. The Cubs will destroy lefties this year, especially shitty ones. With Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Byrd, Soriano, and Nady, they can rake southpaws.
3. The Rangers work counts like a 4th grade t-ball player. They swing at balls, they swing at first pitches, they dont care. They dont get into other teams bullpens, same as last year. If they have any designs on winning the west, this will have to change, else the pitching will have to allow 3 runs per game.
4. The Twins new ballyard sure played small. Mike Cameron crushed a ball and it stayed below the warning track. It would have been a homer anywhere else.
5. Houston will be lucky to win 68 games. They are horrendous. They have almost no pitching, they have no defense. and they have no offense either.
6. Max Scherzer may have a tough time moving from NL to AL, which should suprise nobody, as we see it all the time.
2. The Cubs will destroy lefties this year, especially shitty ones. With Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Byrd, Soriano, and Nady, they can rake southpaws.
3. The Rangers work counts like a 4th grade t-ball player. They swing at balls, they swing at first pitches, they dont care. They dont get into other teams bullpens, same as last year. If they have any designs on winning the west, this will have to change, else the pitching will have to allow 3 runs per game.
4. The Twins new ballyard sure played small. Mike Cameron crushed a ball and it stayed below the warning track. It would have been a homer anywhere else.
5. Houston will be lucky to win 68 games. They are horrendous. They have almost no pitching, they have no defense. and they have no offense either.
6. Max Scherzer may have a tough time moving from NL to AL, which should suprise nobody, as we see it all the time.
Thursday, April 8, 2010
2010 AL Central Preview
Since the season has already commenced, I will just do the win totals and standings, along with the keys.
1st Minnesota Twins 87-75
keys: Jon Rausch, bullpen must step up with loss of Joe Nathan
2nd. Chicago White Sox 82-80
keys: defense must improve, top tier bullpen must hold slim leads from middling offense
3rd. Cleveland Indians 80-82
keys: development of young players must continue so that 2011 is the year they contend
4th. Detroit Tigers 78-84
keys: staring pitching
5th Kansas City Royals 68-94
keys: worst lineup in the AL, horrid pen aside from closer Soria.
1st Minnesota Twins 87-75
keys: Jon Rausch, bullpen must step up with loss of Joe Nathan
2nd. Chicago White Sox 82-80
keys: defense must improve, top tier bullpen must hold slim leads from middling offense
3rd. Cleveland Indians 80-82
keys: development of young players must continue so that 2011 is the year they contend
4th. Detroit Tigers 78-84
keys: staring pitching
5th Kansas City Royals 68-94
keys: worst lineup in the AL, horrid pen aside from closer Soria.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
2010 AL East Preview
1st NY Yankees 98-64
keys to success: health.
There is no way this team does not make the playoffs. They spend 200 million a year buying the best players, so they ought to win the Series every year. And they probably will again. A top 3 pitching staff in the AL re-acquires top 5 2009 NL starter Javier Vazquez from Atlanta, dumps noodle-armed LF Johnny Damon, adds top tier CF Curtins Granderson, and moves Phil Hughes into the rotation. This team is better than 09, and we all know what happened 6 months ago.
The defense went from solid to top tier, by putting potential All-Star defender Brett Gardner to left, essentially giving them 2 centerfielders. They have the best closer of all time, and unless he gets hurt, and a bunch of others guys do too, they win the division again.
People seem to forget, the Yanks missed the playoffs one time in the last 15 years, the year they won 89 games (2008). That year they had Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson starting 2 out of every 5 games, a done Jason Giambi at first, and Hideki Matsui and Damon in the outfield. They have gone out and made their defense good enough to not lose games, and their offense is still the best in baseball, as it always is. They have 3 of the top 20 pitchers in baseball in CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Vazquez.
I suppose the only think keeping them from winning 110+ games are the questions about Hughes and what he gives as a starter, and subsequently takes away by leaving the 8th inning open in the pen. But really, beyond that, there just are not any doubts about this team.
2. Boston Red Sox 92-70
keys to success: health
Again, you spend $140 million, you better be good. And again, the Red Sox will be good. Arguably the best defense in baseball with the additions of gold glovers at 3b (Adrian Beltre), Mark Cameron (CF), and Marco Scutaro (SS). The rich get richer, as always in today's pro sports leagues. They will no longer have to worry about giving at bats to catcher Jason Varitek, as Victor Martinez has the full-time gig. He is the second best hitting catcher in baseball and , coupled with the middle infield of Pedroia and Scutaro, make up quite an offense/defense combo. 09 CF Jacoby Ellsbury moves to LF, giving them , like NY, two CF's playing daily.
Already with the second best 1-2 pitching combo in the AL (Josh Beckett/ Jon Lester), the Bosox helped themselves (and hurt a rival), by adding starter John Lackey from the Angels. The only team in baseball that can compete with the top of their rotation? You guessed it, the Yanks.
Boston will again make the playoffs, but as long as they rely on overrated Beckett as their number 1, they will fall short of the series, as usual.
3. Tampa Bay Rays 89-73
keys to success: Rafael Soriano, BJ Upton, development of younger arms
Everything went wrong for TB last year, and they were still one of the best teams in baseball. The pen was a disaster from day one, from Troy Percival to JP Howell, there was no rhyme or reason to who closed games. The team blew more leads than any team in baseball, and the defense fell from the best in the majors to nearly middle of the pack.
This year they will bounce back, but the division is so tough, they wont make the playoffs unless Boston falls back a bit.
CF Upton will have to bounce back from his 250, sub 10 homer season in 09, Jason Bartlett will have to bring back the best SS glove in baseball, and 1b Carlos Pen will need to do the same. LF Carl Crawford is already the best at his position, both on the base paths and in the field, and he is a guarantee to steal 50 bags and play gold glove d himself.
The questions do not loom so much with the offense, as 3b Evan Longoria has already established himself as the best in the game, and 2b Brent Zobrist isnt far off himself. The key will be Soriano's success at the end of games, and perhaps also the men who set-up in front of him. I believe Soriano will be fine, establishing himself as a top 5 closer in the AL, if not baseball.
This team can hit, they can play d, but what about pitching?
Well, last July they finally got fed up with mercurial lefty Scott Kazmir, so they dealt him to the Angels. So Matt Garza now has the opportunity to lead this staff, and he should be up to the task. The problem with Garza has always been concentration. He can throw 5 great innings and lose it completely in the 6th. Or have a horrid 2nd and then throw 6 more great innings. He never seems to have clean starts. Pretty much the same can be said about James Shields, though they are both very good, young pitchers.
The continued development of youngsters David Price, Jeff Niemann, and Wade Davis. If all three of those kids do what they are capable of, the Rays could win 93 games and the wild card.
4. Baltimore Orioles 75-87
keys to success: pitching pitching pitching
The offense is there and getting better. Young stars CF Adam Jones, Catcher Matty Wieters, and RF Nick Markakis are getting better yearly. The team can hit, there is no doubt about that. But who will pitch, both starting and closing?
The team signed lefty Mike Gonzalez from the Braves, and he will step in as closer on opening day. Following him are Jim Johnson and Cla Meredtih, both more than adequate set up men themselves. After that it gets dicey: Matt Albers and Mark Hendrickson are awful, both as starters and as relievers, so if the pen needs to give more than 2 innings, it may be in for some trouble.
The starters are adequate at best. The team added Kevin Millwood from Texas, and he will give htem 6 innings per start. He is no ace, far from it, but perhaps he can give them a boost, from a veteran standpoint at least. Jeremy Guthrie is underrated and coming off a terrible year, so hopefully he bounces back in 2010. Young lefty Brian Matusz will be a pitcher to follow, as some say he will be a star very soon. The development of starters Brad Bergeson and David Hernandez will also be key to the O's future. This team wont contend in 2010, but they are aiming for 2011 or 12. The division is so tough and rich, that it will be hard for anyone to compete with NY or Boston, but with the cheap young players Baltimore has, this season will be the best they have had in nearly a decade.
5. Toronto Blue Jays 66-86
keys to success: nothing can give this team 70 wins. they are toast
The Jays have tons of young pitching talent from the minors. Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch, not even mentioning the haul they got from dealing Roy Halladay to the Phils. Problem is, every young pitcher they have is hurt all the time. The bullpen is solid, with closer Justin Frasor, and relievers Scott Downs, Brian Tallet, even Kevin Gregg. But there will be no leads to protect, no games to save. With young starters (the only healthy ones anyhow) Ricky Romero and Brendon Morrow, I suppose eventual development is possible. But they wont give much production this year, for certain.
Offensively the team is mediocre, especially for the AL. CF Vernon Wells is a shell of what he was, new 3b Edwin Encarnacion swings at everything, 1b Lyle Overbay will never become what scouts thought he could, and SS Alex Gonzalez stinks. This team had a great defense in 2009. Scutaro and 2b Aaron Hill made up the best middle infield in the game. With Scutaro's departure, the Jays not only have to fill his shoes on defense, but he was one of their better hitters as well. DH Adam Lind is a star, and should hit 35 homers. The development of RF Travis Snyder will be the most interesting thing to watch this season. LF Jose Bautista has no value, much like new catcher John Buck. The team wont sell many seats and wont win many games. Their future is not bright and the division is only getting better. It is going to be ugly for baseball north of the border this year.
keys to success: health.
There is no way this team does not make the playoffs. They spend 200 million a year buying the best players, so they ought to win the Series every year. And they probably will again. A top 3 pitching staff in the AL re-acquires top 5 2009 NL starter Javier Vazquez from Atlanta, dumps noodle-armed LF Johnny Damon, adds top tier CF Curtins Granderson, and moves Phil Hughes into the rotation. This team is better than 09, and we all know what happened 6 months ago.
The defense went from solid to top tier, by putting potential All-Star defender Brett Gardner to left, essentially giving them 2 centerfielders. They have the best closer of all time, and unless he gets hurt, and a bunch of others guys do too, they win the division again.
People seem to forget, the Yanks missed the playoffs one time in the last 15 years, the year they won 89 games (2008). That year they had Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson starting 2 out of every 5 games, a done Jason Giambi at first, and Hideki Matsui and Damon in the outfield. They have gone out and made their defense good enough to not lose games, and their offense is still the best in baseball, as it always is. They have 3 of the top 20 pitchers in baseball in CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Vazquez.
I suppose the only think keeping them from winning 110+ games are the questions about Hughes and what he gives as a starter, and subsequently takes away by leaving the 8th inning open in the pen. But really, beyond that, there just are not any doubts about this team.
2. Boston Red Sox 92-70
keys to success: health
Again, you spend $140 million, you better be good. And again, the Red Sox will be good. Arguably the best defense in baseball with the additions of gold glovers at 3b (Adrian Beltre), Mark Cameron (CF), and Marco Scutaro (SS). The rich get richer, as always in today's pro sports leagues. They will no longer have to worry about giving at bats to catcher Jason Varitek, as Victor Martinez has the full-time gig. He is the second best hitting catcher in baseball and , coupled with the middle infield of Pedroia and Scutaro, make up quite an offense/defense combo. 09 CF Jacoby Ellsbury moves to LF, giving them , like NY, two CF's playing daily.
Already with the second best 1-2 pitching combo in the AL (Josh Beckett/ Jon Lester), the Bosox helped themselves (and hurt a rival), by adding starter John Lackey from the Angels. The only team in baseball that can compete with the top of their rotation? You guessed it, the Yanks.
Boston will again make the playoffs, but as long as they rely on overrated Beckett as their number 1, they will fall short of the series, as usual.
3. Tampa Bay Rays 89-73
keys to success: Rafael Soriano, BJ Upton, development of younger arms
Everything went wrong for TB last year, and they were still one of the best teams in baseball. The pen was a disaster from day one, from Troy Percival to JP Howell, there was no rhyme or reason to who closed games. The team blew more leads than any team in baseball, and the defense fell from the best in the majors to nearly middle of the pack.
This year they will bounce back, but the division is so tough, they wont make the playoffs unless Boston falls back a bit.
CF Upton will have to bounce back from his 250, sub 10 homer season in 09, Jason Bartlett will have to bring back the best SS glove in baseball, and 1b Carlos Pen will need to do the same. LF Carl Crawford is already the best at his position, both on the base paths and in the field, and he is a guarantee to steal 50 bags and play gold glove d himself.
The questions do not loom so much with the offense, as 3b Evan Longoria has already established himself as the best in the game, and 2b Brent Zobrist isnt far off himself. The key will be Soriano's success at the end of games, and perhaps also the men who set-up in front of him. I believe Soriano will be fine, establishing himself as a top 5 closer in the AL, if not baseball.
This team can hit, they can play d, but what about pitching?
Well, last July they finally got fed up with mercurial lefty Scott Kazmir, so they dealt him to the Angels. So Matt Garza now has the opportunity to lead this staff, and he should be up to the task. The problem with Garza has always been concentration. He can throw 5 great innings and lose it completely in the 6th. Or have a horrid 2nd and then throw 6 more great innings. He never seems to have clean starts. Pretty much the same can be said about James Shields, though they are both very good, young pitchers.
The continued development of youngsters David Price, Jeff Niemann, and Wade Davis. If all three of those kids do what they are capable of, the Rays could win 93 games and the wild card.
4. Baltimore Orioles 75-87
keys to success: pitching pitching pitching
The offense is there and getting better. Young stars CF Adam Jones, Catcher Matty Wieters, and RF Nick Markakis are getting better yearly. The team can hit, there is no doubt about that. But who will pitch, both starting and closing?
The team signed lefty Mike Gonzalez from the Braves, and he will step in as closer on opening day. Following him are Jim Johnson and Cla Meredtih, both more than adequate set up men themselves. After that it gets dicey: Matt Albers and Mark Hendrickson are awful, both as starters and as relievers, so if the pen needs to give more than 2 innings, it may be in for some trouble.
The starters are adequate at best. The team added Kevin Millwood from Texas, and he will give htem 6 innings per start. He is no ace, far from it, but perhaps he can give them a boost, from a veteran standpoint at least. Jeremy Guthrie is underrated and coming off a terrible year, so hopefully he bounces back in 2010. Young lefty Brian Matusz will be a pitcher to follow, as some say he will be a star very soon. The development of starters Brad Bergeson and David Hernandez will also be key to the O's future. This team wont contend in 2010, but they are aiming for 2011 or 12. The division is so tough and rich, that it will be hard for anyone to compete with NY or Boston, but with the cheap young players Baltimore has, this season will be the best they have had in nearly a decade.
5. Toronto Blue Jays 66-86
keys to success: nothing can give this team 70 wins. they are toast
The Jays have tons of young pitching talent from the minors. Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch, not even mentioning the haul they got from dealing Roy Halladay to the Phils. Problem is, every young pitcher they have is hurt all the time. The bullpen is solid, with closer Justin Frasor, and relievers Scott Downs, Brian Tallet, even Kevin Gregg. But there will be no leads to protect, no games to save. With young starters (the only healthy ones anyhow) Ricky Romero and Brendon Morrow, I suppose eventual development is possible. But they wont give much production this year, for certain.
Offensively the team is mediocre, especially for the AL. CF Vernon Wells is a shell of what he was, new 3b Edwin Encarnacion swings at everything, 1b Lyle Overbay will never become what scouts thought he could, and SS Alex Gonzalez stinks. This team had a great defense in 2009. Scutaro and 2b Aaron Hill made up the best middle infield in the game. With Scutaro's departure, the Jays not only have to fill his shoes on defense, but he was one of their better hitters as well. DH Adam Lind is a star, and should hit 35 homers. The development of RF Travis Snyder will be the most interesting thing to watch this season. LF Jose Bautista has no value, much like new catcher John Buck. The team wont sell many seats and wont win many games. Their future is not bright and the division is only getting better. It is going to be ugly for baseball north of the border this year.
Friday, April 2, 2010
2010 NL Central Preview
1st. St Louis Cardinals (90-72)
keys to success: bullpen, health of Chris Carpenter.
Well the Cards have the best player in baseball, 1b Albert Pujols. They have a young and rising star in CF Colby Rasmus, and they have a top tier offensive outfielder in Matt Holliday. After that, the hitting is fairly thin. Its hard to know exactly what to expect from RF Ryan Ludwick, but assume he can be penciled in for 270, 20 hrs, and 85 RBI's. The key to the team is going to be the health of the top 2 starters, who are also 2 of the top 3 in last year's Cy Young voting: Adam Wainwright and Carpenter. Wainwright is always healthy, so there is little room for concern, but Carpenter is another story. He misses starts every year, and even seems to miss larger chunks every other season. Assuming he is good for 30 starts, they should again win the division easily.
The team added Brad Penny as a #4 starter, who is an upgrade from the garbage they threw out last year (Todd Wellermeyer). If he can make it to 10-12 wins, this team should be even better than I expect. I dont think they have what it takes to make it out of the NL, because they simply cannot hit like the Phils, but you never know.
The biggest problem for me is that they just have no closer. Ryan Franklin is garbage, last year aside, he is not even close to a major league closer. He has no plus pitches, he is insanely lucky, and he cannot really strike batters out. At some point this year, Tony LaRussa will have to make a decision about the future of this pen, the sooner the better.
What will be most interesting about this season for STL is the potential rise of the youngsters: Rasmus, SS Brendan Ryan, 2b Skip Schumaker, and 3b David Freese. If 2 of these guys surpass last year's numbers, STL will have an offense to reckon with. Right now, the Cards essentially have 2 big bats and a bunch of mediocrity surrounding them, luckily the division is awful.
2nd. Milwaukee Brewers (82-80)
keys to the team: bullpen, starters Randy Wolf and Dave Bush
The Brewers have two of the best hitters in the NL, if not baseball, in 1b Prince Fielder and LF Ryan Braun. They have potentially above average players in oft-injured 2b Rickie Weeks and CF Carlos Gomez. They have above established above average players in RF Corey Hart and 3b Casey McGehee. They dumped worthless catcher Jason Kendall and added decent hitting Gregg Zaun. They have the best offense in the division for certain, and it may even be better this year then last. The problem, as always, is defense and pitching. They have a stud ace in Yovani Gallardo, and an established #2 in lefty Randy Wolf, and...... that's it. Jeff Suppan is Jeff Suppan, good for a high 4 ERA with 10 wins, same as Doug Davis. So the pressure falls to Dave Bush, who had an awful 2009. He moved from starter to pen and back last year, was hurt off and on, and never showed much of the promise he had shown in prior years. If he can regain the fastball and change he had in 08 and 06, then maybe the team can get into the mid 80's in wins.
Another big problem is the bullpen. While closer Trevor Hoffman seems to be fine, and will probably be fine into his 50's ( he is already over 40), the rest of the pen is far from established. LaTroy Hawkins can be good, and not so good. Exactly the same can be said of Todd Coffey, David Riske, Mitch Stetter, and on and on. For this team to have any chance of contending, Bush and the pen will have to step up and establish an order, and do so by June at the latest.
3rd. Chicago Cubs 81-81
keys to the team: health of older hitters , closer Carlos Marmol.
2009 was a giant disaster. Coming off a huge 08, the team thought 09 would be even better, adding Milton Bradley and second year star Giovanny Soto's sophomore season. Well, every single thing that could go wrong did. 3b Aramis Ramirez tore up his shoulder in late May, missing a lot of time and never regaining his strength upon return. LF Alfonso Soriano had his worst season ever, hitting, defense, and power were all sub par for his position, much less for a star of his magnitude. Soto completely fell off the map, and didnt come close to duplicating his rookie year. The pen was a disaster, closer Kevin Gregg blew save after save. Starting pitching wasnt very good, Rich Harden had a high 4 ERA and #1 starter Carlos Zambrano did not even break 10 wins. Well, 2010 will not be much better. The stars are getting older, Derek Lee is now entering his high 30's, and although he had a great 2009 second half, it will not continue. Ramirez is still great, though it remains to be see if he is completely back from the shoulder separation. Soriano will have to lift his average at least 20 points for this team to have any chance at the division, Soto will have to club 20 hr's, and new acquisition CF Marlon Byrd will have to settle in as team leader, like he was for the Rangers last year. Byrd will improve the defense quite a bit, moving Kosuke Fukodome to RF where he is exceptional compared to other NL RF's.
The bullpen will have a new leader in closer Marmol, who has always had the stuff, if not the mentality, to be a top 10 closer. This is a guy who can strike out 2 batters per inning if he is on his game, but he often walks just as many. IF he can cut his walks down by at least 50%, and curb his meltdowns, than the team has a shot. They have solid enough starting pitching, with lefty Ted Lilly and righty Ryan Dempster, neither of whom are bad at all. Righty Randy Wells and lefty Tom Gorzelanny leave much to be desired, but if the bullpen steps up, they can take some of the slack off the starters. The team probably will not contend in 2010, regardless.
4th. Cincinnati Reds 79-83.
keys to success: starters Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, and Edinson Volquez. Development of young studs CF Drew Stubbs, RF Jay Bruce.
Everyone's sleeper pick to win the division is the Reds. I hate to break it to them, but this team has no chance. While they have a top tier bullpen and defense, they dont have any consistency at all from their starting pitchers and are not sure who they can count on offensively either.
Bronson Arroyo regularly posts 6+ first half ERA's, then turns it on when the division is far out of reach. Volquez probably wont be availble until May, and who knows what to expect from a guy coming off Tommy John surgery. Cueto has incredible first halves, then gets hurt and does nothing for 3 months. I am not sure what to expect from Bailey, though he has the potential to be a top tier starter, they say.
The defense will be stout. Scott Rolen is still a great 3b, Brandon Phillips is a great 2b, and Orlando Cabrera is a very good SS. Joey Votto is above average at 1b, Stubbs will be above average, as will Bruce. The defense and bullpen will have to carry the team because the pitching is below average. There are too many question marks on the offense to sustain 162 games, but the good news for the Reds is they are not to far off from being a contender, especially is this awful division.
5th Pittsburgh Pirates 72-90
keys to success: pitching, pen, and starting
Well, there is light at the end of the tunnel. It is still far off, but there is light. The team is loaded with young talent. CF Andrew McCutcheon is already a star, LF Lastings Milledge seems to have found his niche, and RF Greg Jones can rake. The team has a very good middle infield defensively, with additions SS Bobby Crosby and 2b Aki Iwamura. The offense wont be a huge problem, finally able to score some runs with this outfit. The starting pitching is absolutely key, with 5 youngsters: lefties Paul Maholm and Zack Duke, and righties Russ Ohlendorf, Charlie Morton and Kevin Hart. There is a lot of potential here, especially in the first three I listed. There is no chance this team contends this year, or even approaches 80 wins.
The bullpen is loaded with questions: closer Octavio Dotel has never risen to the occasion when named to end games. Joel Hanrahan is a converted starter, and castoff from the Nationals. If the Nats cast you off, you may not be very good. The rest of the pen consists of youngerts and castoffs so what they will produce is beyond anyone's guess.
This year will be a year to see what the starters can do, and what the young hitters can learn. Anything more is a bonus.
6th. Houston Astros 71-91.
keys to success: righty Bretty Myers,lefty Wandy Rodriguez, bullpen.
This team is boring, does not play defense, and has no pen. They suck every year and will suck this year also. They have 2 hitters in 1b Lance Berkman and insanely overrated LF Carlos Lee. RF Hunter Pence is not developing into a star, CF Michael Bourn is all field, no hit, and 3b Pedro Feliz is the same. Relievers Matt Lidstrom and Brandon Lyon are not closers, and not particularly good setup men either. Righties Bud Norris, Brian Moehler, and Brett Myers are below average starters, and Roy Oswalt is injured every single year. This team has no prospects, no exciting players outside of Wandy Rodriguez, who is a pretty top tier lefty in the NL at least. There is no reason to follow this team, they are lousy.
keys to success: bullpen, health of Chris Carpenter.
Well the Cards have the best player in baseball, 1b Albert Pujols. They have a young and rising star in CF Colby Rasmus, and they have a top tier offensive outfielder in Matt Holliday. After that, the hitting is fairly thin. Its hard to know exactly what to expect from RF Ryan Ludwick, but assume he can be penciled in for 270, 20 hrs, and 85 RBI's. The key to the team is going to be the health of the top 2 starters, who are also 2 of the top 3 in last year's Cy Young voting: Adam Wainwright and Carpenter. Wainwright is always healthy, so there is little room for concern, but Carpenter is another story. He misses starts every year, and even seems to miss larger chunks every other season. Assuming he is good for 30 starts, they should again win the division easily.
The team added Brad Penny as a #4 starter, who is an upgrade from the garbage they threw out last year (Todd Wellermeyer). If he can make it to 10-12 wins, this team should be even better than I expect. I dont think they have what it takes to make it out of the NL, because they simply cannot hit like the Phils, but you never know.
The biggest problem for me is that they just have no closer. Ryan Franklin is garbage, last year aside, he is not even close to a major league closer. He has no plus pitches, he is insanely lucky, and he cannot really strike batters out. At some point this year, Tony LaRussa will have to make a decision about the future of this pen, the sooner the better.
What will be most interesting about this season for STL is the potential rise of the youngsters: Rasmus, SS Brendan Ryan, 2b Skip Schumaker, and 3b David Freese. If 2 of these guys surpass last year's numbers, STL will have an offense to reckon with. Right now, the Cards essentially have 2 big bats and a bunch of mediocrity surrounding them, luckily the division is awful.
2nd. Milwaukee Brewers (82-80)
keys to the team: bullpen, starters Randy Wolf and Dave Bush
The Brewers have two of the best hitters in the NL, if not baseball, in 1b Prince Fielder and LF Ryan Braun. They have potentially above average players in oft-injured 2b Rickie Weeks and CF Carlos Gomez. They have above established above average players in RF Corey Hart and 3b Casey McGehee. They dumped worthless catcher Jason Kendall and added decent hitting Gregg Zaun. They have the best offense in the division for certain, and it may even be better this year then last. The problem, as always, is defense and pitching. They have a stud ace in Yovani Gallardo, and an established #2 in lefty Randy Wolf, and...... that's it. Jeff Suppan is Jeff Suppan, good for a high 4 ERA with 10 wins, same as Doug Davis. So the pressure falls to Dave Bush, who had an awful 2009. He moved from starter to pen and back last year, was hurt off and on, and never showed much of the promise he had shown in prior years. If he can regain the fastball and change he had in 08 and 06, then maybe the team can get into the mid 80's in wins.
Another big problem is the bullpen. While closer Trevor Hoffman seems to be fine, and will probably be fine into his 50's ( he is already over 40), the rest of the pen is far from established. LaTroy Hawkins can be good, and not so good. Exactly the same can be said of Todd Coffey, David Riske, Mitch Stetter, and on and on. For this team to have any chance of contending, Bush and the pen will have to step up and establish an order, and do so by June at the latest.
3rd. Chicago Cubs 81-81
keys to the team: health of older hitters , closer Carlos Marmol.
2009 was a giant disaster. Coming off a huge 08, the team thought 09 would be even better, adding Milton Bradley and second year star Giovanny Soto's sophomore season. Well, every single thing that could go wrong did. 3b Aramis Ramirez tore up his shoulder in late May, missing a lot of time and never regaining his strength upon return. LF Alfonso Soriano had his worst season ever, hitting, defense, and power were all sub par for his position, much less for a star of his magnitude. Soto completely fell off the map, and didnt come close to duplicating his rookie year. The pen was a disaster, closer Kevin Gregg blew save after save. Starting pitching wasnt very good, Rich Harden had a high 4 ERA and #1 starter Carlos Zambrano did not even break 10 wins. Well, 2010 will not be much better. The stars are getting older, Derek Lee is now entering his high 30's, and although he had a great 2009 second half, it will not continue. Ramirez is still great, though it remains to be see if he is completely back from the shoulder separation. Soriano will have to lift his average at least 20 points for this team to have any chance at the division, Soto will have to club 20 hr's, and new acquisition CF Marlon Byrd will have to settle in as team leader, like he was for the Rangers last year. Byrd will improve the defense quite a bit, moving Kosuke Fukodome to RF where he is exceptional compared to other NL RF's.
The bullpen will have a new leader in closer Marmol, who has always had the stuff, if not the mentality, to be a top 10 closer. This is a guy who can strike out 2 batters per inning if he is on his game, but he often walks just as many. IF he can cut his walks down by at least 50%, and curb his meltdowns, than the team has a shot. They have solid enough starting pitching, with lefty Ted Lilly and righty Ryan Dempster, neither of whom are bad at all. Righty Randy Wells and lefty Tom Gorzelanny leave much to be desired, but if the bullpen steps up, they can take some of the slack off the starters. The team probably will not contend in 2010, regardless.
4th. Cincinnati Reds 79-83.
keys to success: starters Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, and Edinson Volquez. Development of young studs CF Drew Stubbs, RF Jay Bruce.
Everyone's sleeper pick to win the division is the Reds. I hate to break it to them, but this team has no chance. While they have a top tier bullpen and defense, they dont have any consistency at all from their starting pitchers and are not sure who they can count on offensively either.
Bronson Arroyo regularly posts 6+ first half ERA's, then turns it on when the division is far out of reach. Volquez probably wont be availble until May, and who knows what to expect from a guy coming off Tommy John surgery. Cueto has incredible first halves, then gets hurt and does nothing for 3 months. I am not sure what to expect from Bailey, though he has the potential to be a top tier starter, they say.
The defense will be stout. Scott Rolen is still a great 3b, Brandon Phillips is a great 2b, and Orlando Cabrera is a very good SS. Joey Votto is above average at 1b, Stubbs will be above average, as will Bruce. The defense and bullpen will have to carry the team because the pitching is below average. There are too many question marks on the offense to sustain 162 games, but the good news for the Reds is they are not to far off from being a contender, especially is this awful division.
5th Pittsburgh Pirates 72-90
keys to success: pitching, pen, and starting
Well, there is light at the end of the tunnel. It is still far off, but there is light. The team is loaded with young talent. CF Andrew McCutcheon is already a star, LF Lastings Milledge seems to have found his niche, and RF Greg Jones can rake. The team has a very good middle infield defensively, with additions SS Bobby Crosby and 2b Aki Iwamura. The offense wont be a huge problem, finally able to score some runs with this outfit. The starting pitching is absolutely key, with 5 youngsters: lefties Paul Maholm and Zack Duke, and righties Russ Ohlendorf, Charlie Morton and Kevin Hart. There is a lot of potential here, especially in the first three I listed. There is no chance this team contends this year, or even approaches 80 wins.
The bullpen is loaded with questions: closer Octavio Dotel has never risen to the occasion when named to end games. Joel Hanrahan is a converted starter, and castoff from the Nationals. If the Nats cast you off, you may not be very good. The rest of the pen consists of youngerts and castoffs so what they will produce is beyond anyone's guess.
This year will be a year to see what the starters can do, and what the young hitters can learn. Anything more is a bonus.
6th. Houston Astros 71-91.
keys to success: righty Bretty Myers,lefty Wandy Rodriguez, bullpen.
This team is boring, does not play defense, and has no pen. They suck every year and will suck this year also. They have 2 hitters in 1b Lance Berkman and insanely overrated LF Carlos Lee. RF Hunter Pence is not developing into a star, CF Michael Bourn is all field, no hit, and 3b Pedro Feliz is the same. Relievers Matt Lidstrom and Brandon Lyon are not closers, and not particularly good setup men either. Righties Bud Norris, Brian Moehler, and Brett Myers are below average starters, and Roy Oswalt is injured every single year. This team has no prospects, no exciting players outside of Wandy Rodriguez, who is a pretty top tier lefty in the NL at least. There is no reason to follow this team, they are lousy.
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Rangers win about 84. People do not understand that Rich Harden will not pitch 150 innings. It wont happen, never does. I have seen him start 50 times, i live outside San Francisco, but if your number 1 is hurt all the time, you start from a disadvantage. Now, let us couple that with our best hitter, most dynamic threat on offense, josh Hamilton. I love him, love how he has fought back, but he is not going to play 150 games. Never has. HE will tire, his body is older than his age. So our next two most important hitters are Ian Kinsler, our stud 2b who is behind only Chase Utley and a few others as far as 2b goes. He had s slight off year last year and was unlucky. We need him, he is hurt. I assume he will be ok. Next problem is Vlad Guerrero. Now he can hit, but he is not the hitter he was. He cannot play OF, EVER. Period. And he wont. And its good he will hit in arlington, maybe he can hit 25 + homers, i dont know. But he is always hurt also.
So it falls on Scott Feldman, Julio Borbon and Elvis (the best young SS i have ever seen on defense), Neftali and Holland, and our pen. IF they all step up, if Harden or Hamilton and Vlad, have career years or bounce back, then we can win the division.
2. Scott Feldman will win 15, but it doesnt matter if we have a 15 game winner, we need 88 wins in total. I dont care if Darren O'Day wins 20 , we need wins from everyone!
3. Nelson Cruz and Vlad both have 100 RBIS, if Kinsler comes back and is healthy.. I assume Michael Young will be, as he always has, a total bad ***.
4. Josh Hamilton, Harden, Vlad, and now Kinsler.
5. Angels. But it is not out of the question that Texas does. Oak has the pitching, NO OFFENSE. Sea has the top 2 starters and defense, but again, NO OFFENSE.