If the giants win this series, and i pray to god they do not (because i hate them more than anything ever), it seems very likely that the reason will be their pitching staff--and not just Lincecum and Cain, but the entire staff, down to the absurdly deep bullpen and its amaglam of right and left handed weapons. the Phillies' lineup did not look great against inferior pithching from Cincinatti in round 1, and the Giants third starter (Sanchez) is far better than any of what Cinci had to offer in the NLDS.
While Brucy Bochy seems to alternate between asleep-at-the-wheel and standing-on-the-panic-button in terms of bullpen management, its a neary Bochy proof pen because anyone other than Javier Lopez against righties, or Chris Ray again anyone, is likely to render outs.
As long as bohcy does not overreact to one or two bad outings (as he did with Sergio Romo and Brian Wilson in the NLDS), the Giants will have the atvantage in any game in which they have a lead after the starters are gone.
The Phils however, are a stronger team from top to bottom. They have significantly fewer weaknesses than the garbage SF lineup that Sabean threw together from the trash dump of the other 29 teams. Even with Jimmy Rollins at far less than 100%, the core of their lineup is patient, has power, and Utley and Werth specifically, are great, disciplined hitters who can do more than merely wait for the pitcher to make a mistake.
I will take Philly's top 3 starters by a hair over the Giants, I will take the Phils defense by a big margin, and I will take the bats and baserunning by a country mile.
The Giants are not going to be the pushovers the Reds were. That said, Phils in 6.
Friday, October 15, 2010
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
Tampa Vs Rangers Divsion Series
Because Tampa is the best team in the AL, because they have homefield, an because the Rangers best players are simply not healthy, I believe the Rays win this series. Whether they win it in 4 games or 5, I am unsure. The first game is gigantic. Cliff Lee vs David Price. Arguably the 2 best lefties in baseball head to head in game 1 of the entire playoffs. This cannot be beat. I am ecstatic. The Rays have the best defense I have ever seen. They cannot hit like Texas throughout the lineup, but they create more runs than do the Rangers. The Rays have 2 stud hitters: Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria. Beyond that, the lineup is guys who do things the right way: move runners, steal bags, 1st to 3rd on a single, etc.
The Rangers are capable of winning this series, but as of today, and for what it is worth, the Rangers lost every single road game this year vs the other three AL playoff teams.
That stat may not matter as the slate is wiped clean, but its a hurdle that must be overcome, and I dont think the Rangers will do it.
The Rangers are capable of winning this series, but as of today, and for what it is worth, the Rangers lost every single road game this year vs the other three AL playoff teams.
That stat may not matter as the slate is wiped clean, but its a hurdle that must be overcome, and I dont think the Rangers will do it.
Friday, July 30, 2010
Twins stupid trade
Twins dealt a top 3 minor league catching prospect (wilson ramos) for a right handed closer for a bottom 3 mlb team ( Mike Capps, Nationals)
To say the Twins made a dumb deal is an understatement. I cannot believe that a team that loses in round 1 of the playoffs year in and year out, is content to go after a subpar doppelganger of their closer Jon Rausch.
The Twins need a starter, badly. The Twins need legit bullpen help, badly. But Capps hardly qualifies as much help at all. He is really Jon Rausch without the trailer park neck tattoos.
They have better get 1b Justin Morneau back quickly. What were they thinking?
when they had the chance to get Cliff Lee a few weeks back, why not put Ramos with some other prospects and actually make a difference making deal?
If Twins win the division, it will be by 1-2 games, thats for sure.
To say the Twins made a dumb deal is an understatement. I cannot believe that a team that loses in round 1 of the playoffs year in and year out, is content to go after a subpar doppelganger of their closer Jon Rausch.
The Twins need a starter, badly. The Twins need legit bullpen help, badly. But Capps hardly qualifies as much help at all. He is really Jon Rausch without the trailer park neck tattoos.
They have better get 1b Justin Morneau back quickly. What were they thinking?
when they had the chance to get Cliff Lee a few weeks back, why not put Ramos with some other prospects and actually make a difference making deal?
If Twins win the division, it will be by 1-2 games, thats for sure.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Giants 2k10
Buster POSEY FOR MVP
i am not joking
he is the best rookie ive ever seen
ANYONE who thinks sabean should have left him down last year doesnt realize that they would have made wildcard with posey
SABEAN IS HORRID
giants win west
period
renteria is worthless
so is pablo
pablo will be on dATELINE in 10 years: 500 lbs and broke and on drugs in some south american country
plenty of guys have done it,hamilton did crack. but he is special.
Thursday, July 15, 2010
AL Central Corrections
Well, boy was I wrong. Not entirely sure how the Chisox are in first, or how they are winning every game they play, but they are. I was pretty sure theyd be under 500, and didnt think there would be over 2 teams in the central with more wins than losses. Whats even stranger is how bad the Twins are.
I knew the loss of Joe Nathan would hurt, but the bullpen and starters are even worse than I could have imagined. I am not giving up on them yet, I do think they are better then the Tigers, but this is not a very good team. Its surely not a 90 win team. They have zero pen, they dont have a #1 or even a #2 starter, and they have three below average pitchers following Liriano and Pavano, the only two decent ones they have. Slowey, Baker, and Blackburn are garbage, all of them, and no division winning team can start those 3 crumbums in the same rotation.
I was shocked they did not get Cliff Lee before Texas did, because this team had to have him to have any chance in the playoffs. But over the last 3 weeks, I have come to the realization that this is not even a playoff team, much less one capable of winning a playoff round.
So, sadly, and with regret, I think the White Sox win this division, with no bigger reason than they have one of the worst bullpens in the league, by far. They find ways to blow big leads, small leads, road leads, home leads. The lefties cant get lefties out, the closer is mediocre, if that, and the lineup outside of Morneau and a major down year Mauer, has been pretty average itself.
Coupled with rookie studs Austin Jackson and Brandon Boesch in Detroit, along with big bounceback years from Chisox OF's Alex Rios and Carlos Quentin leads me to say the Twins are a third place team.
I knew the loss of Joe Nathan would hurt, but the bullpen and starters are even worse than I could have imagined. I am not giving up on them yet, I do think they are better then the Tigers, but this is not a very good team. Its surely not a 90 win team. They have zero pen, they dont have a #1 or even a #2 starter, and they have three below average pitchers following Liriano and Pavano, the only two decent ones they have. Slowey, Baker, and Blackburn are garbage, all of them, and no division winning team can start those 3 crumbums in the same rotation.
I was shocked they did not get Cliff Lee before Texas did, because this team had to have him to have any chance in the playoffs. But over the last 3 weeks, I have come to the realization that this is not even a playoff team, much less one capable of winning a playoff round.
So, sadly, and with regret, I think the White Sox win this division, with no bigger reason than they have one of the worst bullpens in the league, by far. They find ways to blow big leads, small leads, road leads, home leads. The lefties cant get lefties out, the closer is mediocre, if that, and the lineup outside of Morneau and a major down year Mauer, has been pretty average itself.
Coupled with rookie studs Austin Jackson and Brandon Boesch in Detroit, along with big bounceback years from Chisox OF's Alex Rios and Carlos Quentin leads me to say the Twins are a third place team.
Sunday, June 27, 2010
Will Giants keep winning with the current team?
I woul not say the Giants have been a surprise, they are on pace for around 85 wins, they win at home and lose on the road. I think we all saw this last year and pretty much expected the same thing in 2k10. The Giants continue to have stellar pitching, even with the sub-par year (for him) for Tim Lincecum. The bullpen, one of the best in baseball last year, has shown itself to be rather pedestrian thus far, though closer Brian Wilson has emerged as a top 10 MLB reliever. Barry Zito has bounced back and is having a solid, above average season, though hardly earning the $15 mil per year he collects from Giants' brass. Matt Cain is his usual self, several good games, a few bad ones, then several more good starts. Pretty much the same can be said of lefty Jonathan Sanchez, another up and down young starter. Lefty setup man Jeremy Affedlt has been pretty lousy, and he was arguably the Giants best reliever last season, putting out fires at will. The Giants seem to have trouble understanding Guillermo Mota is garbage, though sooner or later they will figure out (most likely later as is always the case with these slow-learning retards that run this team).
It took about 6-8 weeks, but Bruce Bochy finally realized Aaron Rowand is garbage and should not be an everyday outfielder, instead inserting sparkplug stud defender Andres Torres, who at 32 years old, is having a career year. His glove has saved the Giants no less than 3 games by my count, and its only June. RF/LF/1b Aubrey Huff has shocked us all, setting himself on pace for 20+ hrs, no small feat in this ballyard. Utility infielder Juan Uribe is having a career year as well, on pace for 100 RBI's and 20+ homers. Overweight, overrated, and idiotic Pablo Sandoval has done nothing for almost 3 months, other than swing at every pitch he sees, ground into a double play per game, and eat more food daily than most humans consume in a week. If he can turn his season around, the Giants have a shot to make the playoffs.
The problem with this team is their offense doesn't travel. They are built for this park, they thrive in front of their home fans, but they are a below average road team. This team is capable of losing to anyone in baseball on the road, and last week they proved it by losing 2 @Houston. They do not seem to be able to hit righties (team BA 260), they dont drive in runs (23rd in baseball), and they do not hit for power (19th in homers).
So once again, as expected, the Giants pitching will have to carry them. And last year it did, very nearly making the playoffs. The problem this year is San Diego has pitching and a pen no worse than the Giants, and the Giants cant beat LA or SD. My initial lean going into this season was the Giants could win the wildcard, and they still may, but with the rise of Atlanta, the Mets, and the Padres, along with decent play so far from LA and Colorado, I would say the Giants will be on the outside looking in, unless they can get some bullpen help sometime in the next month.
The division will come down to the last week, and the Giants surely have the chemistry to do it, but their division is tough and this team does not win on the road. Until they start working pitchers on the road, especially righties, they will continue to win 84-88 games every year, and miss the playoffs as well.
It took about 6-8 weeks, but Bruce Bochy finally realized Aaron Rowand is garbage and should not be an everyday outfielder, instead inserting sparkplug stud defender Andres Torres, who at 32 years old, is having a career year. His glove has saved the Giants no less than 3 games by my count, and its only June. RF/LF/1b Aubrey Huff has shocked us all, setting himself on pace for 20+ hrs, no small feat in this ballyard. Utility infielder Juan Uribe is having a career year as well, on pace for 100 RBI's and 20+ homers. Overweight, overrated, and idiotic Pablo Sandoval has done nothing for almost 3 months, other than swing at every pitch he sees, ground into a double play per game, and eat more food daily than most humans consume in a week. If he can turn his season around, the Giants have a shot to make the playoffs.
The problem with this team is their offense doesn't travel. They are built for this park, they thrive in front of their home fans, but they are a below average road team. This team is capable of losing to anyone in baseball on the road, and last week they proved it by losing 2 @Houston. They do not seem to be able to hit righties (team BA 260), they dont drive in runs (23rd in baseball), and they do not hit for power (19th in homers).
So once again, as expected, the Giants pitching will have to carry them. And last year it did, very nearly making the playoffs. The problem this year is San Diego has pitching and a pen no worse than the Giants, and the Giants cant beat LA or SD. My initial lean going into this season was the Giants could win the wildcard, and they still may, but with the rise of Atlanta, the Mets, and the Padres, along with decent play so far from LA and Colorado, I would say the Giants will be on the outside looking in, unless they can get some bullpen help sometime in the next month.
The division will come down to the last week, and the Giants surely have the chemistry to do it, but their division is tough and this team does not win on the road. Until they start working pitchers on the road, especially righties, they will continue to win 84-88 games every year, and miss the playoffs as well.
Sunday, June 13, 2010
New post about phils/ giants/ part 1
Its been LONG time, for which i am to blame.
My favorite team (Phils) has been destroyed for a month, and my least favorite, the Giants, has been rollin' like Nolan. Now, one of these is an abberration, and one is not. As to which is which, perhaps youll be surprised.
Phils troubles for a month:
Basically, for a month, the Phils have won one of every 3 games. They have taken, I think, like one or two series, been THROTTLED by the Bosox, Braves,Mets and other teams with other names. The problems are many. Joe Blanton has been terrible, and he was supposed to be their third best starter. Instead, their third best starter is a dude who is like 50, Jamie Moyer. Well, if youre relying on a 50 year old dude , you may have a problem. Another problem, Jason Werth has done nothing for a month. Literally nothing, utterly killed them. They also miss Jimmy Rollins. Believe me, theres maroons out there who have no clue about baseball and think Rollins is a 260 hitter or doesnt get on base enough, or whatever. But there are glue guys, engine guys. Guys like Chone Figgins to the Angels, Ichiro to the Mariners, and Ian Kinsler for the Rangers. You lose an MVP, you suffer. They replaced him with a nobody. Thats a huge loss. They also have to deal with a good division. Apparently the Mets are good. Who the hell knew? So now the Nats have hung around so long, they called up this 22 year old stud and he dominates. So the Nats are now in it , or think they are. So the Nats..... I am done saying "so the nats, " because frankly, I dont believe it. They are not this good, they arent even good. They have no pitching, their pen isnt very good. No way. So will the Phils turn it around and win division? I lean towards yes. They cannot play worse, they are too good. They have to get Rollins back, and when they do, they will start winning. I am not saying they make the world series, because right now they wont. But its early June, so i wont count them out till August unless some serious shit goes down.
I will be back to do Giants tomorrow.
My favorite team (Phils) has been destroyed for a month, and my least favorite, the Giants, has been rollin' like Nolan. Now, one of these is an abberration, and one is not. As to which is which, perhaps youll be surprised.
Phils troubles for a month:
Basically, for a month, the Phils have won one of every 3 games. They have taken, I think, like one or two series, been THROTTLED by the Bosox, Braves,Mets and other teams with other names. The problems are many. Joe Blanton has been terrible, and he was supposed to be their third best starter. Instead, their third best starter is a dude who is like 50, Jamie Moyer. Well, if youre relying on a 50 year old dude , you may have a problem. Another problem, Jason Werth has done nothing for a month. Literally nothing, utterly killed them. They also miss Jimmy Rollins. Believe me, theres maroons out there who have no clue about baseball and think Rollins is a 260 hitter or doesnt get on base enough, or whatever. But there are glue guys, engine guys. Guys like Chone Figgins to the Angels, Ichiro to the Mariners, and Ian Kinsler for the Rangers. You lose an MVP, you suffer. They replaced him with a nobody. Thats a huge loss. They also have to deal with a good division. Apparently the Mets are good. Who the hell knew? So now the Nats have hung around so long, they called up this 22 year old stud and he dominates. So the Nats are now in it , or think they are. So the Nats..... I am done saying "so the nats, " because frankly, I dont believe it. They are not this good, they arent even good. They have no pitching, their pen isnt very good. No way. So will the Phils turn it around and win division? I lean towards yes. They cannot play worse, they are too good. They have to get Rollins back, and when they do, they will start winning. I am not saying they make the world series, because right now they wont. But its early June, so i wont count them out till August unless some serious shit goes down.
I will be back to do Giants tomorrow.
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Washington Nats thoughts
Mid May and the Nats are 4 games over 500. This is slightly more shocking than Sarah Palin's 15 minutes of fame, which is now going on almost 2 years. While Palin may not have a revamped bullpen, apparently the Nats do, and this has to be the major reason they are playing well (so far, anyway).
I wont get too excited for them, as the season has just begun, but I will say the future looks decidedly brighter than my preseason pick intimated. The pitching will not hold up, there is no way this team can continue anything close to its' current pace with some of the castoff crumbums they have starting, but the improvements are legit. They are winning games this year that would have ended as losses last season, and they are doing it rather regularly. See, for example, last Sunday's game, which I attended, for a perfect example. The Nats led all game, hit into 4 or 5 double plays, gave up the lead in the 8th, got out of a bases loaded jam without falling behind, knocked a solo shot in the bottom half, and got a 3 outs save in the ninth. It seems minor to a fan of almost any other team, but its pretty impressive for a franchise such as this.
The rebirth of Scott Olsen has not fully convinced me yet, nor has the similar resurrection of fatman Livan Hernandez, but the minors are stacked, and with the best pitching prospect of the last 10 years already at AAA (Steven Strausburg), they could get above 500 by next year.
In fact, if they call the kid up anytime before the All Star break, I see no reason why 75 wins aren't within reach.
The Nats are currently on a 90 win pace, and nobody, the Nats included, thinks they are a 90 win team. But they don't seem to be any worse than the Mets or Marlins either. Growing pains may soon be over for Washington, especially if they can add just 2 solid starters for 2011.
I wont get too excited for them, as the season has just begun, but I will say the future looks decidedly brighter than my preseason pick intimated. The pitching will not hold up, there is no way this team can continue anything close to its' current pace with some of the castoff crumbums they have starting, but the improvements are legit. They are winning games this year that would have ended as losses last season, and they are doing it rather regularly. See, for example, last Sunday's game, which I attended, for a perfect example. The Nats led all game, hit into 4 or 5 double plays, gave up the lead in the 8th, got out of a bases loaded jam without falling behind, knocked a solo shot in the bottom half, and got a 3 outs save in the ninth. It seems minor to a fan of almost any other team, but its pretty impressive for a franchise such as this.
The rebirth of Scott Olsen has not fully convinced me yet, nor has the similar resurrection of fatman Livan Hernandez, but the minors are stacked, and with the best pitching prospect of the last 10 years already at AAA (Steven Strausburg), they could get above 500 by next year.
In fact, if they call the kid up anytime before the All Star break, I see no reason why 75 wins aren't within reach.
The Nats are currently on a 90 win pace, and nobody, the Nats included, thinks they are a 90 win team. But they don't seem to be any worse than the Mets or Marlins either. Growing pains may soon be over for Washington, especially if they can add just 2 solid starters for 2011.
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Seattle Mariners Musings
So once again, just as in 2009, we have ourselves the best defense in baseball, combined with the worst offense in the league.
The masters of run prevention continue to win at home and lose on the road and score very rarely in both places.
As of right now, they are 11th in Batting Average, 13th in OBP and Slugging, 12th in Runs, and 2 games below .500. Granted, they have yet to have top 10 pitcher Cliff Lee, who has been injured since spring training, but his arrival wont score a single run for this team.
Apparently adding Chone Figgins does not help your offense much, unless he brings Kendry Morales, Vlad Guerrero, Juan Rivera, Torii Hunter, and Bobby Abreau with him from the Angels.
I understand the Mariners felt adding a great glue guy, good defender, and stolen base threat like Figgins would help them score more runs, and I think it will, but he is not a game changer, and never has been. So they essentially have 2 leadoff hitters in Figgins and Ichiro, neither of whom has any power whatsoever, and both of whom are followed in the lineup by decent but powerless hitters in CF Gutierrez and 1b Casey Kotchman, not to mention the other 4 dead bats they have in the lineup as well.
Any team playing Ken Griffey as a DH is not too interested in scoring runs, or taking their team's playoff chances seriously. They have another great defender but zero at the plate in SS Jack Wilson. So in addition to Griffey and Wilson, what do the Mariners do to score more runs? Well, they add .200 hitter Rob Johnson to their everyday lineup, platoon Eric Byrnes, who has been done for 3 years, in left field, and give Matt Tuiasasopo regular starts at corner infield positions.
I expect this team's pitching to be just fine, and it has been, for the most part. Ian Snell is crap and I knew he would be, but he will lose his spot as soon as Lee comes back this weekend. Another problem is an unproven bullpen, coming off career years for everyone. I expect more regression for the Mariners' bullpen than any other in the league. I will be very surprised if Seattle can approach last years' win total of 85 games. But then , the Giants surprise me daily by winning with a dogshit offense. Go figure.
The masters of run prevention continue to win at home and lose on the road and score very rarely in both places.
As of right now, they are 11th in Batting Average, 13th in OBP and Slugging, 12th in Runs, and 2 games below .500. Granted, they have yet to have top 10 pitcher Cliff Lee, who has been injured since spring training, but his arrival wont score a single run for this team.
Apparently adding Chone Figgins does not help your offense much, unless he brings Kendry Morales, Vlad Guerrero, Juan Rivera, Torii Hunter, and Bobby Abreau with him from the Angels.
I understand the Mariners felt adding a great glue guy, good defender, and stolen base threat like Figgins would help them score more runs, and I think it will, but he is not a game changer, and never has been. So they essentially have 2 leadoff hitters in Figgins and Ichiro, neither of whom has any power whatsoever, and both of whom are followed in the lineup by decent but powerless hitters in CF Gutierrez and 1b Casey Kotchman, not to mention the other 4 dead bats they have in the lineup as well.
Any team playing Ken Griffey as a DH is not too interested in scoring runs, or taking their team's playoff chances seriously. They have another great defender but zero at the plate in SS Jack Wilson. So in addition to Griffey and Wilson, what do the Mariners do to score more runs? Well, they add .200 hitter Rob Johnson to their everyday lineup, platoon Eric Byrnes, who has been done for 3 years, in left field, and give Matt Tuiasasopo regular starts at corner infield positions.
I expect this team's pitching to be just fine, and it has been, for the most part. Ian Snell is crap and I knew he would be, but he will lose his spot as soon as Lee comes back this weekend. Another problem is an unproven bullpen, coming off career years for everyone. I expect more regression for the Mariners' bullpen than any other in the league. I will be very surprised if Seattle can approach last years' win total of 85 games. But then , the Giants surprise me daily by winning with a dogshit offense. Go figure.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
2010 NL East Preview
Forgot to do my win totals
Phils 96-66: problem area will be, as always, the bullpen. The only thing that can keep down the NL's best offense is the worst pen in the NL. Yes, thats right, the worst pen in the NL. Get Lidge back and at least they can move Madson to 8th inning guy where he seems to thrive.
Atlanta 88-74: problem area: the most inconsistent top tiered offense in baseball, you never know what you will get from them. They have an amazing talent in rookie RF Jason Heyward, but they have an always injured 1b in Troy Glaus and 3b Chipper Jones. They will get minimal production, albeit great defense, out of CF Nate McLouth and LF Melky Cabrera, but they have very weird chemistry, I do not know why.
Mets 80-82: If righty Mike Pelfrey can turn the corner and become a good #2, if the team can hit and SS Jose Reyes stays healthy at the top of the order, and if they can find some pitching after Johan Santana, this team could have a decent bounceback year and hang around until August or September. There is not much potential for them beyond 500 however. Perhaps 1b prospect Ike Davis can give the team a power bat they have yet to find, at least in their new ballpark.
Florida Marlins 78-84: I know everyone is high on this team, but their defense is abysmal, as is their bullpen. They have young pitchers that just dont seem to get going, other than Josh Johnson, and those are the keys to the team. Will Ricky Nolasco or Annibal Sanchez ever produce that they are capable of? If they do, then the team can contend for a wild card. Offense is not a problem. The Fish have a top 5 offensive player in SS Hanley Ramirez. 1b Jorge Cantu can rake, LF Chris Colghan and CF Cody Ross are also very good hitters. The bullpen is horrid, and closer Leo Nunez is going to make every 1 run lead into a major adventure.
Washington 73-89: help is on the way. Megaprospect Steven Strausburg should come up sometime in May or June, giving them essentially one major league starting pitcher (which is better than zero I guess). There is no doubt the team can hit: 1b Adam Dunn should hit 35 + hrs, 3b Ryan Zimmerman is a rising star, SS Ian Desmond is also a huge prospect. Josh Willingham can hit, though his defense is brutal too . Their bullpen problems mirror Philly's, but they dont have the offense or defense to make up for it. Nor do they have Roy Halladay, for that matter. Maybe next year Nats!
Phils 96-66: problem area will be, as always, the bullpen. The only thing that can keep down the NL's best offense is the worst pen in the NL. Yes, thats right, the worst pen in the NL. Get Lidge back and at least they can move Madson to 8th inning guy where he seems to thrive.
Atlanta 88-74: problem area: the most inconsistent top tiered offense in baseball, you never know what you will get from them. They have an amazing talent in rookie RF Jason Heyward, but they have an always injured 1b in Troy Glaus and 3b Chipper Jones. They will get minimal production, albeit great defense, out of CF Nate McLouth and LF Melky Cabrera, but they have very weird chemistry, I do not know why.
Mets 80-82: If righty Mike Pelfrey can turn the corner and become a good #2, if the team can hit and SS Jose Reyes stays healthy at the top of the order, and if they can find some pitching after Johan Santana, this team could have a decent bounceback year and hang around until August or September. There is not much potential for them beyond 500 however. Perhaps 1b prospect Ike Davis can give the team a power bat they have yet to find, at least in their new ballpark.
Florida Marlins 78-84: I know everyone is high on this team, but their defense is abysmal, as is their bullpen. They have young pitchers that just dont seem to get going, other than Josh Johnson, and those are the keys to the team. Will Ricky Nolasco or Annibal Sanchez ever produce that they are capable of? If they do, then the team can contend for a wild card. Offense is not a problem. The Fish have a top 5 offensive player in SS Hanley Ramirez. 1b Jorge Cantu can rake, LF Chris Colghan and CF Cody Ross are also very good hitters. The bullpen is horrid, and closer Leo Nunez is going to make every 1 run lead into a major adventure.
Washington 73-89: help is on the way. Megaprospect Steven Strausburg should come up sometime in May or June, giving them essentially one major league starting pitcher (which is better than zero I guess). There is no doubt the team can hit: 1b Adam Dunn should hit 35 + hrs, 3b Ryan Zimmerman is a rising star, SS Ian Desmond is also a huge prospect. Josh Willingham can hit, though his defense is brutal too . Their bullpen problems mirror Philly's, but they dont have the offense or defense to make up for it. Nor do they have Roy Halladay, for that matter. Maybe next year Nats!
Thursday, April 15, 2010
White Sox
With the major league's most overrated starter in Jake Peavy, along with the biggest bunch of underachievers (Andruw Jones, Alex Rios, possibly Carlos Quentin), this team will have a bottom 5 AL offense. I was never under the impression they would be good, but watching them play would make any baseball purist vomit.
Their defense is below average at ss, 1b, and 3b. Their outfield cannot hit (outside of Quentin, whose career year 2 years ago seems light years away). Juan Pierre is a cool dude and all, but he sucks. Alex Rios is not a cool dude, and sucks.
You may ask, "Ryan, why is Alexi Rios not a cool dude?"
Thank you for asking. A few years ago I was enjoying a $9 mojito in the Skydome Hard RockCafe, watching batting practice at about 330 pm or so. Alex Rios is fielding fly balls. He turns around, looks at me, and throws a ball off the plexiglass window. It is what a moronic 11 year old would do. and this is a $15 million dollar former all star. He will never hit like he used to, he is a lazy jerk who sucks at baseball. What kind if dude throws a baseball at fans, even if protected by a window? In retrospect, I wish that ball had hit me in the face.
I could have used the money.
Their defense is below average at ss, 1b, and 3b. Their outfield cannot hit (outside of Quentin, whose career year 2 years ago seems light years away). Juan Pierre is a cool dude and all, but he sucks. Alex Rios is not a cool dude, and sucks.
You may ask, "Ryan, why is Alexi Rios not a cool dude?"
Thank you for asking. A few years ago I was enjoying a $9 mojito in the Skydome Hard RockCafe, watching batting practice at about 330 pm or so. Alex Rios is fielding fly balls. He turns around, looks at me, and throws a ball off the plexiglass window. It is what a moronic 11 year old would do. and this is a $15 million dollar former all star. He will never hit like he used to, he is a lazy jerk who sucks at baseball. What kind if dude throws a baseball at fans, even if protected by a window? In retrospect, I wish that ball had hit me in the face.
I could have used the money.
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Angels
Once again, the Yanks shred the Angels. Dont let the final tally confound you, it was an asskicking. The Angels hitting will come around, Im sure. Brandon Wood sucks but the rest of them are fine. The pitching is becoming a problem. The pen was mediocre to begin with, gone are the dominant days of Scot Shields and Frankie Rodriguez. The loss of John Lackey looms larger every single day, due to the continued ineffectiveness of Ervin Santana. Also worth noting are :
a: Joe Saunders sucks and always has, his record neevr indicates his true value, and eventually, maybe now, it will come back to Earth.
b: Matt Palmer sucks, obviously, though he is probably just a space filler for Scott Kazmir who also kinda sucks, but is less sucky then Palmer and Saunders by far.
c: Jered Weaver is good, but if he is your ace, you better have some insanely deep staff. The Angels do not have an insanely deep staff. They have a solid 1-5, nothing near All-Star caliber though.
d: Losing Chone Figgins will hurt just as much on defense as on offense. He is a glue guy, an OBP guy, a gold glover, a base stealer, and an igniter. He hits from both sides, takes pitches, and does every single thing a winning team needs. He is replaced by yet another highly-touted (and most likely future flameout like the rest) Angels minor leaguer.
Wood better pick it up fast, especially in the field, or this team will be 7 games back by the end of the month. Oaklands pitching and pen are fantastic, as are Texas', so its going to be a race all year.
Seattle sucks. A blind retard knows this.
a: Joe Saunders sucks and always has, his record neevr indicates his true value, and eventually, maybe now, it will come back to Earth.
b: Matt Palmer sucks, obviously, though he is probably just a space filler for Scott Kazmir who also kinda sucks, but is less sucky then Palmer and Saunders by far.
c: Jered Weaver is good, but if he is your ace, you better have some insanely deep staff. The Angels do not have an insanely deep staff. They have a solid 1-5, nothing near All-Star caliber though.
d: Losing Chone Figgins will hurt just as much on defense as on offense. He is a glue guy, an OBP guy, a gold glover, a base stealer, and an igniter. He hits from both sides, takes pitches, and does every single thing a winning team needs. He is replaced by yet another highly-touted (and most likely future flameout like the rest) Angels minor leaguer.
Wood better pick it up fast, especially in the field, or this team will be 7 games back by the end of the month. Oaklands pitching and pen are fantastic, as are Texas', so its going to be a race all year.
Seattle sucks. A blind retard knows this.
Monday, April 12, 2010
MAriners
Sea outscored by 50 runs last year and was above 500
guess the luck is evening out this year.
learn to hit
take griffey out of the lineup. Defense may save runs but they dont work counts, take pitches, get into pens.
They cant score
Chone Figgins didnt bring Abreau and Morales with him, apparently.
guess the luck is evening out this year.
learn to hit
take griffey out of the lineup. Defense may save runs but they dont work counts, take pitches, get into pens.
They cant score
Chone Figgins didnt bring Abreau and Morales with him, apparently.
things I have learned so far today
1. The Royals are awful but maybe they will score more this year, if only because Podsednik can create a little havoc on base, and Billy Butler may become an all star.
2. The Cubs will destroy lefties this year, especially shitty ones. With Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Byrd, Soriano, and Nady, they can rake southpaws.
3. The Rangers work counts like a 4th grade t-ball player. They swing at balls, they swing at first pitches, they dont care. They dont get into other teams bullpens, same as last year. If they have any designs on winning the west, this will have to change, else the pitching will have to allow 3 runs per game.
4. The Twins new ballyard sure played small. Mike Cameron crushed a ball and it stayed below the warning track. It would have been a homer anywhere else.
5. Houston will be lucky to win 68 games. They are horrendous. They have almost no pitching, they have no defense. and they have no offense either.
6. Max Scherzer may have a tough time moving from NL to AL, which should suprise nobody, as we see it all the time.
2. The Cubs will destroy lefties this year, especially shitty ones. With Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Byrd, Soriano, and Nady, they can rake southpaws.
3. The Rangers work counts like a 4th grade t-ball player. They swing at balls, they swing at first pitches, they dont care. They dont get into other teams bullpens, same as last year. If they have any designs on winning the west, this will have to change, else the pitching will have to allow 3 runs per game.
4. The Twins new ballyard sure played small. Mike Cameron crushed a ball and it stayed below the warning track. It would have been a homer anywhere else.
5. Houston will be lucky to win 68 games. They are horrendous. They have almost no pitching, they have no defense. and they have no offense either.
6. Max Scherzer may have a tough time moving from NL to AL, which should suprise nobody, as we see it all the time.
Thursday, April 8, 2010
2010 AL Central Preview
Since the season has already commenced, I will just do the win totals and standings, along with the keys.
1st Minnesota Twins 87-75
keys: Jon Rausch, bullpen must step up with loss of Joe Nathan
2nd. Chicago White Sox 82-80
keys: defense must improve, top tier bullpen must hold slim leads from middling offense
3rd. Cleveland Indians 80-82
keys: development of young players must continue so that 2011 is the year they contend
4th. Detroit Tigers 78-84
keys: staring pitching
5th Kansas City Royals 68-94
keys: worst lineup in the AL, horrid pen aside from closer Soria.
1st Minnesota Twins 87-75
keys: Jon Rausch, bullpen must step up with loss of Joe Nathan
2nd. Chicago White Sox 82-80
keys: defense must improve, top tier bullpen must hold slim leads from middling offense
3rd. Cleveland Indians 80-82
keys: development of young players must continue so that 2011 is the year they contend
4th. Detroit Tigers 78-84
keys: staring pitching
5th Kansas City Royals 68-94
keys: worst lineup in the AL, horrid pen aside from closer Soria.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
2010 AL East Preview
1st NY Yankees 98-64
keys to success: health.
There is no way this team does not make the playoffs. They spend 200 million a year buying the best players, so they ought to win the Series every year. And they probably will again. A top 3 pitching staff in the AL re-acquires top 5 2009 NL starter Javier Vazquez from Atlanta, dumps noodle-armed LF Johnny Damon, adds top tier CF Curtins Granderson, and moves Phil Hughes into the rotation. This team is better than 09, and we all know what happened 6 months ago.
The defense went from solid to top tier, by putting potential All-Star defender Brett Gardner to left, essentially giving them 2 centerfielders. They have the best closer of all time, and unless he gets hurt, and a bunch of others guys do too, they win the division again.
People seem to forget, the Yanks missed the playoffs one time in the last 15 years, the year they won 89 games (2008). That year they had Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson starting 2 out of every 5 games, a done Jason Giambi at first, and Hideki Matsui and Damon in the outfield. They have gone out and made their defense good enough to not lose games, and their offense is still the best in baseball, as it always is. They have 3 of the top 20 pitchers in baseball in CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Vazquez.
I suppose the only think keeping them from winning 110+ games are the questions about Hughes and what he gives as a starter, and subsequently takes away by leaving the 8th inning open in the pen. But really, beyond that, there just are not any doubts about this team.
2. Boston Red Sox 92-70
keys to success: health
Again, you spend $140 million, you better be good. And again, the Red Sox will be good. Arguably the best defense in baseball with the additions of gold glovers at 3b (Adrian Beltre), Mark Cameron (CF), and Marco Scutaro (SS). The rich get richer, as always in today's pro sports leagues. They will no longer have to worry about giving at bats to catcher Jason Varitek, as Victor Martinez has the full-time gig. He is the second best hitting catcher in baseball and , coupled with the middle infield of Pedroia and Scutaro, make up quite an offense/defense combo. 09 CF Jacoby Ellsbury moves to LF, giving them , like NY, two CF's playing daily.
Already with the second best 1-2 pitching combo in the AL (Josh Beckett/ Jon Lester), the Bosox helped themselves (and hurt a rival), by adding starter John Lackey from the Angels. The only team in baseball that can compete with the top of their rotation? You guessed it, the Yanks.
Boston will again make the playoffs, but as long as they rely on overrated Beckett as their number 1, they will fall short of the series, as usual.
3. Tampa Bay Rays 89-73
keys to success: Rafael Soriano, BJ Upton, development of younger arms
Everything went wrong for TB last year, and they were still one of the best teams in baseball. The pen was a disaster from day one, from Troy Percival to JP Howell, there was no rhyme or reason to who closed games. The team blew more leads than any team in baseball, and the defense fell from the best in the majors to nearly middle of the pack.
This year they will bounce back, but the division is so tough, they wont make the playoffs unless Boston falls back a bit.
CF Upton will have to bounce back from his 250, sub 10 homer season in 09, Jason Bartlett will have to bring back the best SS glove in baseball, and 1b Carlos Pen will need to do the same. LF Carl Crawford is already the best at his position, both on the base paths and in the field, and he is a guarantee to steal 50 bags and play gold glove d himself.
The questions do not loom so much with the offense, as 3b Evan Longoria has already established himself as the best in the game, and 2b Brent Zobrist isnt far off himself. The key will be Soriano's success at the end of games, and perhaps also the men who set-up in front of him. I believe Soriano will be fine, establishing himself as a top 5 closer in the AL, if not baseball.
This team can hit, they can play d, but what about pitching?
Well, last July they finally got fed up with mercurial lefty Scott Kazmir, so they dealt him to the Angels. So Matt Garza now has the opportunity to lead this staff, and he should be up to the task. The problem with Garza has always been concentration. He can throw 5 great innings and lose it completely in the 6th. Or have a horrid 2nd and then throw 6 more great innings. He never seems to have clean starts. Pretty much the same can be said about James Shields, though they are both very good, young pitchers.
The continued development of youngsters David Price, Jeff Niemann, and Wade Davis. If all three of those kids do what they are capable of, the Rays could win 93 games and the wild card.
4. Baltimore Orioles 75-87
keys to success: pitching pitching pitching
The offense is there and getting better. Young stars CF Adam Jones, Catcher Matty Wieters, and RF Nick Markakis are getting better yearly. The team can hit, there is no doubt about that. But who will pitch, both starting and closing?
The team signed lefty Mike Gonzalez from the Braves, and he will step in as closer on opening day. Following him are Jim Johnson and Cla Meredtih, both more than adequate set up men themselves. After that it gets dicey: Matt Albers and Mark Hendrickson are awful, both as starters and as relievers, so if the pen needs to give more than 2 innings, it may be in for some trouble.
The starters are adequate at best. The team added Kevin Millwood from Texas, and he will give htem 6 innings per start. He is no ace, far from it, but perhaps he can give them a boost, from a veteran standpoint at least. Jeremy Guthrie is underrated and coming off a terrible year, so hopefully he bounces back in 2010. Young lefty Brian Matusz will be a pitcher to follow, as some say he will be a star very soon. The development of starters Brad Bergeson and David Hernandez will also be key to the O's future. This team wont contend in 2010, but they are aiming for 2011 or 12. The division is so tough and rich, that it will be hard for anyone to compete with NY or Boston, but with the cheap young players Baltimore has, this season will be the best they have had in nearly a decade.
5. Toronto Blue Jays 66-86
keys to success: nothing can give this team 70 wins. they are toast
The Jays have tons of young pitching talent from the minors. Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch, not even mentioning the haul they got from dealing Roy Halladay to the Phils. Problem is, every young pitcher they have is hurt all the time. The bullpen is solid, with closer Justin Frasor, and relievers Scott Downs, Brian Tallet, even Kevin Gregg. But there will be no leads to protect, no games to save. With young starters (the only healthy ones anyhow) Ricky Romero and Brendon Morrow, I suppose eventual development is possible. But they wont give much production this year, for certain.
Offensively the team is mediocre, especially for the AL. CF Vernon Wells is a shell of what he was, new 3b Edwin Encarnacion swings at everything, 1b Lyle Overbay will never become what scouts thought he could, and SS Alex Gonzalez stinks. This team had a great defense in 2009. Scutaro and 2b Aaron Hill made up the best middle infield in the game. With Scutaro's departure, the Jays not only have to fill his shoes on defense, but he was one of their better hitters as well. DH Adam Lind is a star, and should hit 35 homers. The development of RF Travis Snyder will be the most interesting thing to watch this season. LF Jose Bautista has no value, much like new catcher John Buck. The team wont sell many seats and wont win many games. Their future is not bright and the division is only getting better. It is going to be ugly for baseball north of the border this year.
keys to success: health.
There is no way this team does not make the playoffs. They spend 200 million a year buying the best players, so they ought to win the Series every year. And they probably will again. A top 3 pitching staff in the AL re-acquires top 5 2009 NL starter Javier Vazquez from Atlanta, dumps noodle-armed LF Johnny Damon, adds top tier CF Curtins Granderson, and moves Phil Hughes into the rotation. This team is better than 09, and we all know what happened 6 months ago.
The defense went from solid to top tier, by putting potential All-Star defender Brett Gardner to left, essentially giving them 2 centerfielders. They have the best closer of all time, and unless he gets hurt, and a bunch of others guys do too, they win the division again.
People seem to forget, the Yanks missed the playoffs one time in the last 15 years, the year they won 89 games (2008). That year they had Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson starting 2 out of every 5 games, a done Jason Giambi at first, and Hideki Matsui and Damon in the outfield. They have gone out and made their defense good enough to not lose games, and their offense is still the best in baseball, as it always is. They have 3 of the top 20 pitchers in baseball in CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Vazquez.
I suppose the only think keeping them from winning 110+ games are the questions about Hughes and what he gives as a starter, and subsequently takes away by leaving the 8th inning open in the pen. But really, beyond that, there just are not any doubts about this team.
2. Boston Red Sox 92-70
keys to success: health
Again, you spend $140 million, you better be good. And again, the Red Sox will be good. Arguably the best defense in baseball with the additions of gold glovers at 3b (Adrian Beltre), Mark Cameron (CF), and Marco Scutaro (SS). The rich get richer, as always in today's pro sports leagues. They will no longer have to worry about giving at bats to catcher Jason Varitek, as Victor Martinez has the full-time gig. He is the second best hitting catcher in baseball and , coupled with the middle infield of Pedroia and Scutaro, make up quite an offense/defense combo. 09 CF Jacoby Ellsbury moves to LF, giving them , like NY, two CF's playing daily.
Already with the second best 1-2 pitching combo in the AL (Josh Beckett/ Jon Lester), the Bosox helped themselves (and hurt a rival), by adding starter John Lackey from the Angels. The only team in baseball that can compete with the top of their rotation? You guessed it, the Yanks.
Boston will again make the playoffs, but as long as they rely on overrated Beckett as their number 1, they will fall short of the series, as usual.
3. Tampa Bay Rays 89-73
keys to success: Rafael Soriano, BJ Upton, development of younger arms
Everything went wrong for TB last year, and they were still one of the best teams in baseball. The pen was a disaster from day one, from Troy Percival to JP Howell, there was no rhyme or reason to who closed games. The team blew more leads than any team in baseball, and the defense fell from the best in the majors to nearly middle of the pack.
This year they will bounce back, but the division is so tough, they wont make the playoffs unless Boston falls back a bit.
CF Upton will have to bounce back from his 250, sub 10 homer season in 09, Jason Bartlett will have to bring back the best SS glove in baseball, and 1b Carlos Pen will need to do the same. LF Carl Crawford is already the best at his position, both on the base paths and in the field, and he is a guarantee to steal 50 bags and play gold glove d himself.
The questions do not loom so much with the offense, as 3b Evan Longoria has already established himself as the best in the game, and 2b Brent Zobrist isnt far off himself. The key will be Soriano's success at the end of games, and perhaps also the men who set-up in front of him. I believe Soriano will be fine, establishing himself as a top 5 closer in the AL, if not baseball.
This team can hit, they can play d, but what about pitching?
Well, last July they finally got fed up with mercurial lefty Scott Kazmir, so they dealt him to the Angels. So Matt Garza now has the opportunity to lead this staff, and he should be up to the task. The problem with Garza has always been concentration. He can throw 5 great innings and lose it completely in the 6th. Or have a horrid 2nd and then throw 6 more great innings. He never seems to have clean starts. Pretty much the same can be said about James Shields, though they are both very good, young pitchers.
The continued development of youngsters David Price, Jeff Niemann, and Wade Davis. If all three of those kids do what they are capable of, the Rays could win 93 games and the wild card.
4. Baltimore Orioles 75-87
keys to success: pitching pitching pitching
The offense is there and getting better. Young stars CF Adam Jones, Catcher Matty Wieters, and RF Nick Markakis are getting better yearly. The team can hit, there is no doubt about that. But who will pitch, both starting and closing?
The team signed lefty Mike Gonzalez from the Braves, and he will step in as closer on opening day. Following him are Jim Johnson and Cla Meredtih, both more than adequate set up men themselves. After that it gets dicey: Matt Albers and Mark Hendrickson are awful, both as starters and as relievers, so if the pen needs to give more than 2 innings, it may be in for some trouble.
The starters are adequate at best. The team added Kevin Millwood from Texas, and he will give htem 6 innings per start. He is no ace, far from it, but perhaps he can give them a boost, from a veteran standpoint at least. Jeremy Guthrie is underrated and coming off a terrible year, so hopefully he bounces back in 2010. Young lefty Brian Matusz will be a pitcher to follow, as some say he will be a star very soon. The development of starters Brad Bergeson and David Hernandez will also be key to the O's future. This team wont contend in 2010, but they are aiming for 2011 or 12. The division is so tough and rich, that it will be hard for anyone to compete with NY or Boston, but with the cheap young players Baltimore has, this season will be the best they have had in nearly a decade.
5. Toronto Blue Jays 66-86
keys to success: nothing can give this team 70 wins. they are toast
The Jays have tons of young pitching talent from the minors. Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch, not even mentioning the haul they got from dealing Roy Halladay to the Phils. Problem is, every young pitcher they have is hurt all the time. The bullpen is solid, with closer Justin Frasor, and relievers Scott Downs, Brian Tallet, even Kevin Gregg. But there will be no leads to protect, no games to save. With young starters (the only healthy ones anyhow) Ricky Romero and Brendon Morrow, I suppose eventual development is possible. But they wont give much production this year, for certain.
Offensively the team is mediocre, especially for the AL. CF Vernon Wells is a shell of what he was, new 3b Edwin Encarnacion swings at everything, 1b Lyle Overbay will never become what scouts thought he could, and SS Alex Gonzalez stinks. This team had a great defense in 2009. Scutaro and 2b Aaron Hill made up the best middle infield in the game. With Scutaro's departure, the Jays not only have to fill his shoes on defense, but he was one of their better hitters as well. DH Adam Lind is a star, and should hit 35 homers. The development of RF Travis Snyder will be the most interesting thing to watch this season. LF Jose Bautista has no value, much like new catcher John Buck. The team wont sell many seats and wont win many games. Their future is not bright and the division is only getting better. It is going to be ugly for baseball north of the border this year.
Friday, April 2, 2010
2010 NL Central Preview
1st. St Louis Cardinals (90-72)
keys to success: bullpen, health of Chris Carpenter.
Well the Cards have the best player in baseball, 1b Albert Pujols. They have a young and rising star in CF Colby Rasmus, and they have a top tier offensive outfielder in Matt Holliday. After that, the hitting is fairly thin. Its hard to know exactly what to expect from RF Ryan Ludwick, but assume he can be penciled in for 270, 20 hrs, and 85 RBI's. The key to the team is going to be the health of the top 2 starters, who are also 2 of the top 3 in last year's Cy Young voting: Adam Wainwright and Carpenter. Wainwright is always healthy, so there is little room for concern, but Carpenter is another story. He misses starts every year, and even seems to miss larger chunks every other season. Assuming he is good for 30 starts, they should again win the division easily.
The team added Brad Penny as a #4 starter, who is an upgrade from the garbage they threw out last year (Todd Wellermeyer). If he can make it to 10-12 wins, this team should be even better than I expect. I dont think they have what it takes to make it out of the NL, because they simply cannot hit like the Phils, but you never know.
The biggest problem for me is that they just have no closer. Ryan Franklin is garbage, last year aside, he is not even close to a major league closer. He has no plus pitches, he is insanely lucky, and he cannot really strike batters out. At some point this year, Tony LaRussa will have to make a decision about the future of this pen, the sooner the better.
What will be most interesting about this season for STL is the potential rise of the youngsters: Rasmus, SS Brendan Ryan, 2b Skip Schumaker, and 3b David Freese. If 2 of these guys surpass last year's numbers, STL will have an offense to reckon with. Right now, the Cards essentially have 2 big bats and a bunch of mediocrity surrounding them, luckily the division is awful.
2nd. Milwaukee Brewers (82-80)
keys to the team: bullpen, starters Randy Wolf and Dave Bush
The Brewers have two of the best hitters in the NL, if not baseball, in 1b Prince Fielder and LF Ryan Braun. They have potentially above average players in oft-injured 2b Rickie Weeks and CF Carlos Gomez. They have above established above average players in RF Corey Hart and 3b Casey McGehee. They dumped worthless catcher Jason Kendall and added decent hitting Gregg Zaun. They have the best offense in the division for certain, and it may even be better this year then last. The problem, as always, is defense and pitching. They have a stud ace in Yovani Gallardo, and an established #2 in lefty Randy Wolf, and...... that's it. Jeff Suppan is Jeff Suppan, good for a high 4 ERA with 10 wins, same as Doug Davis. So the pressure falls to Dave Bush, who had an awful 2009. He moved from starter to pen and back last year, was hurt off and on, and never showed much of the promise he had shown in prior years. If he can regain the fastball and change he had in 08 and 06, then maybe the team can get into the mid 80's in wins.
Another big problem is the bullpen. While closer Trevor Hoffman seems to be fine, and will probably be fine into his 50's ( he is already over 40), the rest of the pen is far from established. LaTroy Hawkins can be good, and not so good. Exactly the same can be said of Todd Coffey, David Riske, Mitch Stetter, and on and on. For this team to have any chance of contending, Bush and the pen will have to step up and establish an order, and do so by June at the latest.
3rd. Chicago Cubs 81-81
keys to the team: health of older hitters , closer Carlos Marmol.
2009 was a giant disaster. Coming off a huge 08, the team thought 09 would be even better, adding Milton Bradley and second year star Giovanny Soto's sophomore season. Well, every single thing that could go wrong did. 3b Aramis Ramirez tore up his shoulder in late May, missing a lot of time and never regaining his strength upon return. LF Alfonso Soriano had his worst season ever, hitting, defense, and power were all sub par for his position, much less for a star of his magnitude. Soto completely fell off the map, and didnt come close to duplicating his rookie year. The pen was a disaster, closer Kevin Gregg blew save after save. Starting pitching wasnt very good, Rich Harden had a high 4 ERA and #1 starter Carlos Zambrano did not even break 10 wins. Well, 2010 will not be much better. The stars are getting older, Derek Lee is now entering his high 30's, and although he had a great 2009 second half, it will not continue. Ramirez is still great, though it remains to be see if he is completely back from the shoulder separation. Soriano will have to lift his average at least 20 points for this team to have any chance at the division, Soto will have to club 20 hr's, and new acquisition CF Marlon Byrd will have to settle in as team leader, like he was for the Rangers last year. Byrd will improve the defense quite a bit, moving Kosuke Fukodome to RF where he is exceptional compared to other NL RF's.
The bullpen will have a new leader in closer Marmol, who has always had the stuff, if not the mentality, to be a top 10 closer. This is a guy who can strike out 2 batters per inning if he is on his game, but he often walks just as many. IF he can cut his walks down by at least 50%, and curb his meltdowns, than the team has a shot. They have solid enough starting pitching, with lefty Ted Lilly and righty Ryan Dempster, neither of whom are bad at all. Righty Randy Wells and lefty Tom Gorzelanny leave much to be desired, but if the bullpen steps up, they can take some of the slack off the starters. The team probably will not contend in 2010, regardless.
4th. Cincinnati Reds 79-83.
keys to success: starters Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, and Edinson Volquez. Development of young studs CF Drew Stubbs, RF Jay Bruce.
Everyone's sleeper pick to win the division is the Reds. I hate to break it to them, but this team has no chance. While they have a top tier bullpen and defense, they dont have any consistency at all from their starting pitchers and are not sure who they can count on offensively either.
Bronson Arroyo regularly posts 6+ first half ERA's, then turns it on when the division is far out of reach. Volquez probably wont be availble until May, and who knows what to expect from a guy coming off Tommy John surgery. Cueto has incredible first halves, then gets hurt and does nothing for 3 months. I am not sure what to expect from Bailey, though he has the potential to be a top tier starter, they say.
The defense will be stout. Scott Rolen is still a great 3b, Brandon Phillips is a great 2b, and Orlando Cabrera is a very good SS. Joey Votto is above average at 1b, Stubbs will be above average, as will Bruce. The defense and bullpen will have to carry the team because the pitching is below average. There are too many question marks on the offense to sustain 162 games, but the good news for the Reds is they are not to far off from being a contender, especially is this awful division.
5th Pittsburgh Pirates 72-90
keys to success: pitching, pen, and starting
Well, there is light at the end of the tunnel. It is still far off, but there is light. The team is loaded with young talent. CF Andrew McCutcheon is already a star, LF Lastings Milledge seems to have found his niche, and RF Greg Jones can rake. The team has a very good middle infield defensively, with additions SS Bobby Crosby and 2b Aki Iwamura. The offense wont be a huge problem, finally able to score some runs with this outfit. The starting pitching is absolutely key, with 5 youngsters: lefties Paul Maholm and Zack Duke, and righties Russ Ohlendorf, Charlie Morton and Kevin Hart. There is a lot of potential here, especially in the first three I listed. There is no chance this team contends this year, or even approaches 80 wins.
The bullpen is loaded with questions: closer Octavio Dotel has never risen to the occasion when named to end games. Joel Hanrahan is a converted starter, and castoff from the Nationals. If the Nats cast you off, you may not be very good. The rest of the pen consists of youngerts and castoffs so what they will produce is beyond anyone's guess.
This year will be a year to see what the starters can do, and what the young hitters can learn. Anything more is a bonus.
6th. Houston Astros 71-91.
keys to success: righty Bretty Myers,lefty Wandy Rodriguez, bullpen.
This team is boring, does not play defense, and has no pen. They suck every year and will suck this year also. They have 2 hitters in 1b Lance Berkman and insanely overrated LF Carlos Lee. RF Hunter Pence is not developing into a star, CF Michael Bourn is all field, no hit, and 3b Pedro Feliz is the same. Relievers Matt Lidstrom and Brandon Lyon are not closers, and not particularly good setup men either. Righties Bud Norris, Brian Moehler, and Brett Myers are below average starters, and Roy Oswalt is injured every single year. This team has no prospects, no exciting players outside of Wandy Rodriguez, who is a pretty top tier lefty in the NL at least. There is no reason to follow this team, they are lousy.
keys to success: bullpen, health of Chris Carpenter.
Well the Cards have the best player in baseball, 1b Albert Pujols. They have a young and rising star in CF Colby Rasmus, and they have a top tier offensive outfielder in Matt Holliday. After that, the hitting is fairly thin. Its hard to know exactly what to expect from RF Ryan Ludwick, but assume he can be penciled in for 270, 20 hrs, and 85 RBI's. The key to the team is going to be the health of the top 2 starters, who are also 2 of the top 3 in last year's Cy Young voting: Adam Wainwright and Carpenter. Wainwright is always healthy, so there is little room for concern, but Carpenter is another story. He misses starts every year, and even seems to miss larger chunks every other season. Assuming he is good for 30 starts, they should again win the division easily.
The team added Brad Penny as a #4 starter, who is an upgrade from the garbage they threw out last year (Todd Wellermeyer). If he can make it to 10-12 wins, this team should be even better than I expect. I dont think they have what it takes to make it out of the NL, because they simply cannot hit like the Phils, but you never know.
The biggest problem for me is that they just have no closer. Ryan Franklin is garbage, last year aside, he is not even close to a major league closer. He has no plus pitches, he is insanely lucky, and he cannot really strike batters out. At some point this year, Tony LaRussa will have to make a decision about the future of this pen, the sooner the better.
What will be most interesting about this season for STL is the potential rise of the youngsters: Rasmus, SS Brendan Ryan, 2b Skip Schumaker, and 3b David Freese. If 2 of these guys surpass last year's numbers, STL will have an offense to reckon with. Right now, the Cards essentially have 2 big bats and a bunch of mediocrity surrounding them, luckily the division is awful.
2nd. Milwaukee Brewers (82-80)
keys to the team: bullpen, starters Randy Wolf and Dave Bush
The Brewers have two of the best hitters in the NL, if not baseball, in 1b Prince Fielder and LF Ryan Braun. They have potentially above average players in oft-injured 2b Rickie Weeks and CF Carlos Gomez. They have above established above average players in RF Corey Hart and 3b Casey McGehee. They dumped worthless catcher Jason Kendall and added decent hitting Gregg Zaun. They have the best offense in the division for certain, and it may even be better this year then last. The problem, as always, is defense and pitching. They have a stud ace in Yovani Gallardo, and an established #2 in lefty Randy Wolf, and...... that's it. Jeff Suppan is Jeff Suppan, good for a high 4 ERA with 10 wins, same as Doug Davis. So the pressure falls to Dave Bush, who had an awful 2009. He moved from starter to pen and back last year, was hurt off and on, and never showed much of the promise he had shown in prior years. If he can regain the fastball and change he had in 08 and 06, then maybe the team can get into the mid 80's in wins.
Another big problem is the bullpen. While closer Trevor Hoffman seems to be fine, and will probably be fine into his 50's ( he is already over 40), the rest of the pen is far from established. LaTroy Hawkins can be good, and not so good. Exactly the same can be said of Todd Coffey, David Riske, Mitch Stetter, and on and on. For this team to have any chance of contending, Bush and the pen will have to step up and establish an order, and do so by June at the latest.
3rd. Chicago Cubs 81-81
keys to the team: health of older hitters , closer Carlos Marmol.
2009 was a giant disaster. Coming off a huge 08, the team thought 09 would be even better, adding Milton Bradley and second year star Giovanny Soto's sophomore season. Well, every single thing that could go wrong did. 3b Aramis Ramirez tore up his shoulder in late May, missing a lot of time and never regaining his strength upon return. LF Alfonso Soriano had his worst season ever, hitting, defense, and power were all sub par for his position, much less for a star of his magnitude. Soto completely fell off the map, and didnt come close to duplicating his rookie year. The pen was a disaster, closer Kevin Gregg blew save after save. Starting pitching wasnt very good, Rich Harden had a high 4 ERA and #1 starter Carlos Zambrano did not even break 10 wins. Well, 2010 will not be much better. The stars are getting older, Derek Lee is now entering his high 30's, and although he had a great 2009 second half, it will not continue. Ramirez is still great, though it remains to be see if he is completely back from the shoulder separation. Soriano will have to lift his average at least 20 points for this team to have any chance at the division, Soto will have to club 20 hr's, and new acquisition CF Marlon Byrd will have to settle in as team leader, like he was for the Rangers last year. Byrd will improve the defense quite a bit, moving Kosuke Fukodome to RF where he is exceptional compared to other NL RF's.
The bullpen will have a new leader in closer Marmol, who has always had the stuff, if not the mentality, to be a top 10 closer. This is a guy who can strike out 2 batters per inning if he is on his game, but he often walks just as many. IF he can cut his walks down by at least 50%, and curb his meltdowns, than the team has a shot. They have solid enough starting pitching, with lefty Ted Lilly and righty Ryan Dempster, neither of whom are bad at all. Righty Randy Wells and lefty Tom Gorzelanny leave much to be desired, but if the bullpen steps up, they can take some of the slack off the starters. The team probably will not contend in 2010, regardless.
4th. Cincinnati Reds 79-83.
keys to success: starters Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, and Edinson Volquez. Development of young studs CF Drew Stubbs, RF Jay Bruce.
Everyone's sleeper pick to win the division is the Reds. I hate to break it to them, but this team has no chance. While they have a top tier bullpen and defense, they dont have any consistency at all from their starting pitchers and are not sure who they can count on offensively either.
Bronson Arroyo regularly posts 6+ first half ERA's, then turns it on when the division is far out of reach. Volquez probably wont be availble until May, and who knows what to expect from a guy coming off Tommy John surgery. Cueto has incredible first halves, then gets hurt and does nothing for 3 months. I am not sure what to expect from Bailey, though he has the potential to be a top tier starter, they say.
The defense will be stout. Scott Rolen is still a great 3b, Brandon Phillips is a great 2b, and Orlando Cabrera is a very good SS. Joey Votto is above average at 1b, Stubbs will be above average, as will Bruce. The defense and bullpen will have to carry the team because the pitching is below average. There are too many question marks on the offense to sustain 162 games, but the good news for the Reds is they are not to far off from being a contender, especially is this awful division.
5th Pittsburgh Pirates 72-90
keys to success: pitching, pen, and starting
Well, there is light at the end of the tunnel. It is still far off, but there is light. The team is loaded with young talent. CF Andrew McCutcheon is already a star, LF Lastings Milledge seems to have found his niche, and RF Greg Jones can rake. The team has a very good middle infield defensively, with additions SS Bobby Crosby and 2b Aki Iwamura. The offense wont be a huge problem, finally able to score some runs with this outfit. The starting pitching is absolutely key, with 5 youngsters: lefties Paul Maholm and Zack Duke, and righties Russ Ohlendorf, Charlie Morton and Kevin Hart. There is a lot of potential here, especially in the first three I listed. There is no chance this team contends this year, or even approaches 80 wins.
The bullpen is loaded with questions: closer Octavio Dotel has never risen to the occasion when named to end games. Joel Hanrahan is a converted starter, and castoff from the Nationals. If the Nats cast you off, you may not be very good. The rest of the pen consists of youngerts and castoffs so what they will produce is beyond anyone's guess.
This year will be a year to see what the starters can do, and what the young hitters can learn. Anything more is a bonus.
6th. Houston Astros 71-91.
keys to success: righty Bretty Myers,lefty Wandy Rodriguez, bullpen.
This team is boring, does not play defense, and has no pen. They suck every year and will suck this year also. They have 2 hitters in 1b Lance Berkman and insanely overrated LF Carlos Lee. RF Hunter Pence is not developing into a star, CF Michael Bourn is all field, no hit, and 3b Pedro Feliz is the same. Relievers Matt Lidstrom and Brandon Lyon are not closers, and not particularly good setup men either. Righties Bud Norris, Brian Moehler, and Brett Myers are below average starters, and Roy Oswalt is injured every single year. This team has no prospects, no exciting players outside of Wandy Rodriguez, who is a pretty top tier lefty in the NL at least. There is no reason to follow this team, they are lousy.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
2010 AL West Preview
1st place: LA Angels (85-77)
keys to success: Ervin Santana, Joel Pineiro, Scott Kazmir
With the loss of team ace John Lackey, a workhorse for nearly a decade, the onus falls on Jered Weaver to fill his shoes. I really have little doubt he will, therefor the onus has moved. I think the new acquisition of Pineiro is huge. Was his 2009 STL season a fluke? Did he turn the corner? Was it Dave Duncan's stewardship? I would be shocked if he wins 16+ games this year, and doubly shocked if he maintains an ERA under 4. But he will be solid, and probably not a problem. Scott Kazmir is another story. At this point it is very difficult to know which Kazmir will show up. He has gotten progressively worse each year in the majors, his fastball is losing movement and speed, and his walks are not declining. Perhaps a full year out of the Yanks/Redsox division will help, perhaps not. Also, Ervin Santana is coming off a dismal year, although we know he was not healthy, he will need to bounce back for them to win it this year.
The bullpen added Fernando Rodney from Detroit, and he is not bad, but the end of game situations with Brian Fuentes and Rodney is going to have some ups and downs, no doubt.
The offense will be fine, probably third best in the AL again, and getting better. They lost Vlad Guerrero, but the addition of Hideki Matsui will mitigate that subtraction. A bigger hole to fill is 3b Chone Figgins, the gold-glove caliber leadoff hitter who steals bases, ignites rallies, lays down bunts, and pretty much does it all. Will Brandon Wood be able to handle the hot corner? This division should be tight, but the Angels have the experience and less healthy issues than the Rangers, so they should end on top.
2. Texas Rangers (81-81)
keys to success: LF Josh Hamilton, DH Vlad Guerrero, SP Rich Harden.
The Rangers paid Harden $10 million dollars, coming off his worst year, a 4+ ERA season in the NL. Will he ever be healthy? Will he ever pitch 200 innings? Will he ever fulfill the promise that made everyone think he was the next stud starter? Probably not, and this is going to be a problem for the Rangers. When you sign an ace and have your fingers crossed that he will even be available to make 25 starts, you are in trouble before it even begins.
The two best hitters on the team, Hamilton and Guerrero, may not even combine to play 220 games (they did not last year), and that's two more question marks for the team. The Rangers have a fantastic minor leagues, they have two of baseball's biggest prospects in lefty Derek Holland and righty Neftali Feliz, and I suppose those two could step up and fill the void that will invariably follow Hardens mid-May (or sooner) injury. The Rangers rotation in 2009 was suprisingly solid , carrying a fairly mediocre offense for most of the year. The three big keys to their 09 success were defense (top 5 in the majors and improving with the move from CF to LF for Hamilton and the maturity of top tier SS Elvis Andrus), bullpen (the Rangers got major contributions from CJ Wilson, Franky Francisco, Darren O'Day, and Feliz), and simply cutting down on walks. The Rangers pitchers trimmed over a walk per game off their ledger and this allowed them to go deeper into games, averaging almost an inning more per start than in 08 (which also saved the pen). The Rangers could surely win the division, but they will need their best players to stay healthy, something neither Hamilton or Harden have done even once in their careers.
3. Seattle Mariners (79-83)
keys to success: bullpen, 3rd,4th,5ht starters
Well, we know they cannot hit, and that won't change much for 2010. They have a great top 2 in the order in Ichiro and Figgins, a solid #3 in Franklin Gutierrez, and a pretty giant question-mark in DH/dickhead Milton Bradley. They will have 5 other spots (6 when Bradley gets hurt or cut from the team for killing a fan in late June) that will produce very little. This is all fine and dandy if the bullpen is as good as last year, when it was possibly the best in baseball, but if David Aardsma falls off, and we have no idea what to expect, they are in trouble.
The M's have the two best pitchers in the AL in righty Felix Hernandez and lefty Cliff Lee, but they have nothing after that, literally nothing. So again, it will be up to baseball's best defense (with 4 or 5 potential gold glovers) to save runs where they can. The Mariners were a 500 team last year even though they were outscored by 50 runs, this was due to a single reason, defense. Their defense was led by the best CF in the game in Gutierrez, the best RF in the game in Ichiro, the best SS in the game in Jack Wilson. They added Chone Figgins and moved him to 2b, added Casey Kotchman at 1b, and moved Jose Lopez to 3b. There is no reason to think the defense will be anything but the best again. And it will have to be, because there's is one of the worst offenses, if not the worst (outside of KC), in the American League. I will be very suprised if they win the division.
4. Oakland A's (77-85)
keys to success: healthy pitching staff
Well, the A's found a little bit of pocket change and used it on Ben Sheets, basically a slightly older version of Rich Harden. He will probably be hurt sooner or later, and if he isn't , he will be dealt. The A's have some of the best young pitching in baseball with starters Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill. They have a great young closer in Andrew Bailey, and the rest of their pen is loaded with great spot relievers. The problem is they are an NL team playing in the AL. They just cant score runs. They do not have a single plus offensive player anywhere on the roster. They have a great defensive outfield, loaded with speed, with Rajai Davis, Coco Crisp, and Ryan Sweeney, but none of those guys will drive in 80 runs or hit 300. They will need to steal bases, and Davis and Crisp should be up to the task. Davis may need to steal 80 to give them a shot at 500.
Cliff Pennington is a solid glove but a zero bat, same with 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, and the team is just flat out boring. No homer threat, no doubles threat, no fans at the park. They will need to relocate the team to have a shot at future success, plain and simple.
keys to success: Ervin Santana, Joel Pineiro, Scott Kazmir
With the loss of team ace John Lackey, a workhorse for nearly a decade, the onus falls on Jered Weaver to fill his shoes. I really have little doubt he will, therefor the onus has moved. I think the new acquisition of Pineiro is huge. Was his 2009 STL season a fluke? Did he turn the corner? Was it Dave Duncan's stewardship? I would be shocked if he wins 16+ games this year, and doubly shocked if he maintains an ERA under 4. But he will be solid, and probably not a problem. Scott Kazmir is another story. At this point it is very difficult to know which Kazmir will show up. He has gotten progressively worse each year in the majors, his fastball is losing movement and speed, and his walks are not declining. Perhaps a full year out of the Yanks/Redsox division will help, perhaps not. Also, Ervin Santana is coming off a dismal year, although we know he was not healthy, he will need to bounce back for them to win it this year.
The bullpen added Fernando Rodney from Detroit, and he is not bad, but the end of game situations with Brian Fuentes and Rodney is going to have some ups and downs, no doubt.
The offense will be fine, probably third best in the AL again, and getting better. They lost Vlad Guerrero, but the addition of Hideki Matsui will mitigate that subtraction. A bigger hole to fill is 3b Chone Figgins, the gold-glove caliber leadoff hitter who steals bases, ignites rallies, lays down bunts, and pretty much does it all. Will Brandon Wood be able to handle the hot corner? This division should be tight, but the Angels have the experience and less healthy issues than the Rangers, so they should end on top.
2. Texas Rangers (81-81)
keys to success: LF Josh Hamilton, DH Vlad Guerrero, SP Rich Harden.
The Rangers paid Harden $10 million dollars, coming off his worst year, a 4+ ERA season in the NL. Will he ever be healthy? Will he ever pitch 200 innings? Will he ever fulfill the promise that made everyone think he was the next stud starter? Probably not, and this is going to be a problem for the Rangers. When you sign an ace and have your fingers crossed that he will even be available to make 25 starts, you are in trouble before it even begins.
The two best hitters on the team, Hamilton and Guerrero, may not even combine to play 220 games (they did not last year), and that's two more question marks for the team. The Rangers have a fantastic minor leagues, they have two of baseball's biggest prospects in lefty Derek Holland and righty Neftali Feliz, and I suppose those two could step up and fill the void that will invariably follow Hardens mid-May (or sooner) injury. The Rangers rotation in 2009 was suprisingly solid , carrying a fairly mediocre offense for most of the year. The three big keys to their 09 success were defense (top 5 in the majors and improving with the move from CF to LF for Hamilton and the maturity of top tier SS Elvis Andrus), bullpen (the Rangers got major contributions from CJ Wilson, Franky Francisco, Darren O'Day, and Feliz), and simply cutting down on walks. The Rangers pitchers trimmed over a walk per game off their ledger and this allowed them to go deeper into games, averaging almost an inning more per start than in 08 (which also saved the pen). The Rangers could surely win the division, but they will need their best players to stay healthy, something neither Hamilton or Harden have done even once in their careers.
3. Seattle Mariners (79-83)
keys to success: bullpen, 3rd,4th,5ht starters
Well, we know they cannot hit, and that won't change much for 2010. They have a great top 2 in the order in Ichiro and Figgins, a solid #3 in Franklin Gutierrez, and a pretty giant question-mark in DH/dickhead Milton Bradley. They will have 5 other spots (6 when Bradley gets hurt or cut from the team for killing a fan in late June) that will produce very little. This is all fine and dandy if the bullpen is as good as last year, when it was possibly the best in baseball, but if David Aardsma falls off, and we have no idea what to expect, they are in trouble.
The M's have the two best pitchers in the AL in righty Felix Hernandez and lefty Cliff Lee, but they have nothing after that, literally nothing. So again, it will be up to baseball's best defense (with 4 or 5 potential gold glovers) to save runs where they can. The Mariners were a 500 team last year even though they were outscored by 50 runs, this was due to a single reason, defense. Their defense was led by the best CF in the game in Gutierrez, the best RF in the game in Ichiro, the best SS in the game in Jack Wilson. They added Chone Figgins and moved him to 2b, added Casey Kotchman at 1b, and moved Jose Lopez to 3b. There is no reason to think the defense will be anything but the best again. And it will have to be, because there's is one of the worst offenses, if not the worst (outside of KC), in the American League. I will be very suprised if they win the division.
4. Oakland A's (77-85)
keys to success: healthy pitching staff
Well, the A's found a little bit of pocket change and used it on Ben Sheets, basically a slightly older version of Rich Harden. He will probably be hurt sooner or later, and if he isn't , he will be dealt. The A's have some of the best young pitching in baseball with starters Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill. They have a great young closer in Andrew Bailey, and the rest of their pen is loaded with great spot relievers. The problem is they are an NL team playing in the AL. They just cant score runs. They do not have a single plus offensive player anywhere on the roster. They have a great defensive outfield, loaded with speed, with Rajai Davis, Coco Crisp, and Ryan Sweeney, but none of those guys will drive in 80 runs or hit 300. They will need to steal bases, and Davis and Crisp should be up to the task. Davis may need to steal 80 to give them a shot at 500.
Cliff Pennington is a solid glove but a zero bat, same with 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, and the team is just flat out boring. No homer threat, no doubles threat, no fans at the park. They will need to relocate the team to have a shot at future success, plain and simple.
Monday, March 29, 2010
2010 NL West Preview
1. Colorado Rockies (88-74):
Keys to the team: closer Huston Street, starter Jeff Francis
Easily the most talented team in the division, as far as youth goes, the 2009 Rockies jelled in june/july and didnt stop until the playoffs. Now, with a season under their belts, outfielders Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez will form 2/3 of the NL's best defensive OF. Thats 2 centerfielders by the way, covering the massive yard that is Coors Field. While Brad Hawpe in right is nothing to brag about defensively, a healthy 2010 should put him back at his usual 25+ hr's and 100+ RBI's.
Huston Street will start the year on the DL, but righty Rafael Betancourt and lefty Franklin Morales should be able to handle the short term load. If Street is out for a while, then this will be a problem.
They already have the best defensive SS in the NL, Troy Tulowitzki, and it can now be argued that he is not too far back of Florida's Hanley Ramirez as the top hitting middle infielder as well. First base is manned, as always, by Todd Helton, who has a more than solid glove and has put together great AB's for a decade and a half.
Ian Stewart at third is a very exciting prospect as well, and if he falters, Melvin Mora is not the worst fill-in you could find.
Regardless, and as always, the division title hopes for Colorado will come down to pitching. The Rockies believe, and I concur, that they have finally found an ace in righty flamethrower Ubaldo Jimenez. Look for Aaron Cook to have a healthy, bounce back year as well. Lefty Jeff Francis is coming off of surgery but is another huge addition, as he has long been their best pitcher, prior to 2009. The division will be close, but the Rockies hitting is far better than anyone else's, and their pitching has finally caught up to San Francisco's. This pick is far from a lock, but should hold if the pitching stays healthy.
2. LA Dodgers (86-76):
keys to the team: starters Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw, bullpen health, 1b James Loney.
The best bullpen in baseball is back and it had better be on top of its game because the starters are not going to give the Dodgers the innings they would like. Chad Billingsley usually breaks down, or close to it, near the all star break, and fills his second half box scores with 5.1 innings pitched per game. 21 year old lefty Clayton Kershaw throws a lot of pitches to get his outs, especially on the road, and lord knows what Vicente Padilla will give the team. Hideki Kuroda is a solid 4, but his stamina has always been a question mark, and he rarely goes past 6. So the pen will again be asked to give a ton of innings, and as we saw last year in sept/oct, they broke down.
The offense and defense should be fine. They have arguably the best CF in the NL, if not baseball, in young stud Matt Kemp. He should have another year that is better than his last, as he always does. RF Andre Ethier will again knock 25+ jacks and have a 400 OBP, and is fast becoming one of the best clutch hitters in baseball. LF Manny Ramirez is now 38 years old, and his defense is already porous. He is in a free agent year and its damn near impossible to guess what he will give the team.
1b James Loney will need to bounce back and show some power for this team to win the division, and he has yet to do so. New 2b Blake Dewitt will finally get his chance to play everyday and he is a giant question mark as well.
3. San Francisco Giants 83-79
keys to the team: closer Brian Wilson, reliever Jeremy Affeldt, 3b Pablo Sandoval.
Obviously the Giants have the best pitcher in baseball, by a mile, in 2x Cy Young winner TIm Lincecum. I did not list him as a key because I assume he will be healthy, and he has given no indication otherwise. So, assuming Matt Cain, Lincecum, Barry Zito, and Jonathan Sanchez are healthy, the team has as good pitching as anyone in the NL. They had an incredible record in one-run games last year, and that will be very hard to keep up. The bullpen was a strength, for the first time in a long time, and it has to be again, because the offense is really bad.
The Giants dont steal bases, they dont work counts, they swing at everything and they dont walk. This seems to work well for Sandoval, the fattish 3b who hits doubles off his shoetops and homers from both sides of the plate on pitches near his eyeballs, but the rest of the team follows his lead and they dont have the talent to do so. The addition of utility infielder/ LF Mark Derosa will help a bit, but the problem is still the fact that the Giants get nothing out of CF Aaron Rowand, SS Edgar Renteria, and probably whoever plays 1b (presumably Aubrey Huff, who sucks) and RF (Nate Schierholz, who is mediocre) as well. If they can get production out of one other infield spot besides 3b, and if the outfield surpasses last year's dismal production, the division is within reach.
Closer Wilson gets a lot of crap, mostly because he seems like a toolbox, but he is solid and effective. A bigger key is set-up man Affeldt, who had an incredible career year in 2009 and needs to repeat it for the Giants to get closer to 90 wins.
It is possible they win the division, but the wild card is more likely. If I had to pick, I would say neither.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (78-84)
keys to the team: starters Brandon Webb and Ian Kennedy, bullpen.
Possibly the hardest team to predict in baseball, the Diamondbacks had a huge offseason. They added enigmatic yet supremely talented lefty 2b Kelly Johnson, signed 1b Adam LaRoche, and dealt for starters Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy. If everything falls into place, this team could win the division as well.
Last year's D-Backs had one of the worst defenses I have ever seen. They had below average fielders at every infield position, had an awful bullpen, and had horrible luck with starting pitching. They will need Brandon Webb back to win this division. He is starting the year on the DL, and I am not sure if this is a huge deal , but it is clearly cause for concern. RF Justin Upton is a stud, capable of 40+ HR's and capable of throwing runners out from 300 feet. CF Chris Young has always had the potential to be a gold glove, 30/30 threat, but he had an awful 2009. LF Conor Jackson is coming back from pneumonia and is a question mark, though his production is not essential to the team. Moving Miguel Montero into the starting catchers spot should add a lot of offense, as the switch-hitter is a significant upgrade from Chris Snyder, who was dismal.
The bullpen is a mixture of journeymen, castoffs, and garbage. Aaron Heilman is garbage, Chad Qualls should be a set-up man, Bob Howry is mediocre at best, and Clay Zavada has a nice moustache but I don't know if that qualifies him to close just yet. Though we have seen in the past a nice stache does seem necessary for end-of-game success (see: Gossage, Goose, and Fingers, Rollie). The bullpen will most likely be the teams downfall, though luckily they have Haren and Jackson , and hopefully Webb, to give them 7 innings per start.
5. San Diego Padres (68-84)
keys to the team: starter Chris Young, LF Kyle Blanks.
There are no two ways about it, the Padres are going to be bad. They will be in last place. They probably won't win 70 games. There is light at the end of the tunnel I suppose, with a lot of young prospects getting the chance to play daily. It will be painful, but it could pay off long-term, especially when (not if) the team deals All-Star 1b Adrian Gonzalez. The team dumped 3b Kevin Kouzmanoff, which is a good move because he is a GIDP machine. They will start Chase Headley, so the former prospect will get his shot to play his natural position everyday, finally. LF Kyle Blanks, a monstrous 6 foot 8 , 280 pounder and RF Will Venable will get this shots too, and should be solid players, if not better.
The team has one above average starter, righty Chris Young, and he will need to stay healthy for the team to avoid 90 losses. Mediocre righties Kevin Corriea and Jon Garland can be expected to give the teams innings, but they are contact pitchers who average 4-5 strikeouts per game, so don't expect much from either.
Closer Heath Bell is a top tier finisher but he will probably be dealt as well. This team has no chance to do anything now, or in the next 2 years either.
Keys to the team: closer Huston Street, starter Jeff Francis
Easily the most talented team in the division, as far as youth goes, the 2009 Rockies jelled in june/july and didnt stop until the playoffs. Now, with a season under their belts, outfielders Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez will form 2/3 of the NL's best defensive OF. Thats 2 centerfielders by the way, covering the massive yard that is Coors Field. While Brad Hawpe in right is nothing to brag about defensively, a healthy 2010 should put him back at his usual 25+ hr's and 100+ RBI's.
Huston Street will start the year on the DL, but righty Rafael Betancourt and lefty Franklin Morales should be able to handle the short term load. If Street is out for a while, then this will be a problem.
They already have the best defensive SS in the NL, Troy Tulowitzki, and it can now be argued that he is not too far back of Florida's Hanley Ramirez as the top hitting middle infielder as well. First base is manned, as always, by Todd Helton, who has a more than solid glove and has put together great AB's for a decade and a half.
Ian Stewart at third is a very exciting prospect as well, and if he falters, Melvin Mora is not the worst fill-in you could find.
Regardless, and as always, the division title hopes for Colorado will come down to pitching. The Rockies believe, and I concur, that they have finally found an ace in righty flamethrower Ubaldo Jimenez. Look for Aaron Cook to have a healthy, bounce back year as well. Lefty Jeff Francis is coming off of surgery but is another huge addition, as he has long been their best pitcher, prior to 2009. The division will be close, but the Rockies hitting is far better than anyone else's, and their pitching has finally caught up to San Francisco's. This pick is far from a lock, but should hold if the pitching stays healthy.
2. LA Dodgers (86-76):
keys to the team: starters Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw, bullpen health, 1b James Loney.
The best bullpen in baseball is back and it had better be on top of its game because the starters are not going to give the Dodgers the innings they would like. Chad Billingsley usually breaks down, or close to it, near the all star break, and fills his second half box scores with 5.1 innings pitched per game. 21 year old lefty Clayton Kershaw throws a lot of pitches to get his outs, especially on the road, and lord knows what Vicente Padilla will give the team. Hideki Kuroda is a solid 4, but his stamina has always been a question mark, and he rarely goes past 6. So the pen will again be asked to give a ton of innings, and as we saw last year in sept/oct, they broke down.
The offense and defense should be fine. They have arguably the best CF in the NL, if not baseball, in young stud Matt Kemp. He should have another year that is better than his last, as he always does. RF Andre Ethier will again knock 25+ jacks and have a 400 OBP, and is fast becoming one of the best clutch hitters in baseball. LF Manny Ramirez is now 38 years old, and his defense is already porous. He is in a free agent year and its damn near impossible to guess what he will give the team.
1b James Loney will need to bounce back and show some power for this team to win the division, and he has yet to do so. New 2b Blake Dewitt will finally get his chance to play everyday and he is a giant question mark as well.
3. San Francisco Giants 83-79
keys to the team: closer Brian Wilson, reliever Jeremy Affeldt, 3b Pablo Sandoval.
Obviously the Giants have the best pitcher in baseball, by a mile, in 2x Cy Young winner TIm Lincecum. I did not list him as a key because I assume he will be healthy, and he has given no indication otherwise. So, assuming Matt Cain, Lincecum, Barry Zito, and Jonathan Sanchez are healthy, the team has as good pitching as anyone in the NL. They had an incredible record in one-run games last year, and that will be very hard to keep up. The bullpen was a strength, for the first time in a long time, and it has to be again, because the offense is really bad.
The Giants dont steal bases, they dont work counts, they swing at everything and they dont walk. This seems to work well for Sandoval, the fattish 3b who hits doubles off his shoetops and homers from both sides of the plate on pitches near his eyeballs, but the rest of the team follows his lead and they dont have the talent to do so. The addition of utility infielder/ LF Mark Derosa will help a bit, but the problem is still the fact that the Giants get nothing out of CF Aaron Rowand, SS Edgar Renteria, and probably whoever plays 1b (presumably Aubrey Huff, who sucks) and RF (Nate Schierholz, who is mediocre) as well. If they can get production out of one other infield spot besides 3b, and if the outfield surpasses last year's dismal production, the division is within reach.
Closer Wilson gets a lot of crap, mostly because he seems like a toolbox, but he is solid and effective. A bigger key is set-up man Affeldt, who had an incredible career year in 2009 and needs to repeat it for the Giants to get closer to 90 wins.
It is possible they win the division, but the wild card is more likely. If I had to pick, I would say neither.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (78-84)
keys to the team: starters Brandon Webb and Ian Kennedy, bullpen.
Possibly the hardest team to predict in baseball, the Diamondbacks had a huge offseason. They added enigmatic yet supremely talented lefty 2b Kelly Johnson, signed 1b Adam LaRoche, and dealt for starters Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy. If everything falls into place, this team could win the division as well.
Last year's D-Backs had one of the worst defenses I have ever seen. They had below average fielders at every infield position, had an awful bullpen, and had horrible luck with starting pitching. They will need Brandon Webb back to win this division. He is starting the year on the DL, and I am not sure if this is a huge deal , but it is clearly cause for concern. RF Justin Upton is a stud, capable of 40+ HR's and capable of throwing runners out from 300 feet. CF Chris Young has always had the potential to be a gold glove, 30/30 threat, but he had an awful 2009. LF Conor Jackson is coming back from pneumonia and is a question mark, though his production is not essential to the team. Moving Miguel Montero into the starting catchers spot should add a lot of offense, as the switch-hitter is a significant upgrade from Chris Snyder, who was dismal.
The bullpen is a mixture of journeymen, castoffs, and garbage. Aaron Heilman is garbage, Chad Qualls should be a set-up man, Bob Howry is mediocre at best, and Clay Zavada has a nice moustache but I don't know if that qualifies him to close just yet. Though we have seen in the past a nice stache does seem necessary for end-of-game success (see: Gossage, Goose, and Fingers, Rollie). The bullpen will most likely be the teams downfall, though luckily they have Haren and Jackson , and hopefully Webb, to give them 7 innings per start.
5. San Diego Padres (68-84)
keys to the team: starter Chris Young, LF Kyle Blanks.
There are no two ways about it, the Padres are going to be bad. They will be in last place. They probably won't win 70 games. There is light at the end of the tunnel I suppose, with a lot of young prospects getting the chance to play daily. It will be painful, but it could pay off long-term, especially when (not if) the team deals All-Star 1b Adrian Gonzalez. The team dumped 3b Kevin Kouzmanoff, which is a good move because he is a GIDP machine. They will start Chase Headley, so the former prospect will get his shot to play his natural position everyday, finally. LF Kyle Blanks, a monstrous 6 foot 8 , 280 pounder and RF Will Venable will get this shots too, and should be solid players, if not better.
The team has one above average starter, righty Chris Young, and he will need to stay healthy for the team to avoid 90 losses. Mediocre righties Kevin Corriea and Jon Garland can be expected to give the teams innings, but they are contact pitchers who average 4-5 strikeouts per game, so don't expect much from either.
Closer Heath Bell is a top tier finisher but he will probably be dealt as well. This team has no chance to do anything now, or in the next 2 years either.
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Rangers win about 84. People do not understand that Rich Harden will not pitch 150 innings. It wont happen, never does. I have seen him start 50 times, i live outside San Francisco, but if your number 1 is hurt all the time, you start from a disadvantage. Now, let us couple that with our best hitter, most dynamic threat on offense, josh Hamilton. I love him, love how he has fought back, but he is not going to play 150 games. Never has. HE will tire, his body is older than his age. So our next two most important hitters are Ian Kinsler, our stud 2b who is behind only Chase Utley and a few others as far as 2b goes. He had s slight off year last year and was unlucky. We need him, he is hurt. I assume he will be ok. Next problem is Vlad Guerrero. Now he can hit, but he is not the hitter he was. He cannot play OF, EVER. Period. And he wont. And its good he will hit in arlington, maybe he can hit 25 + homers, i dont know. But he is always hurt also.
So it falls on Scott Feldman, Julio Borbon and Elvis (the best young SS i have ever seen on defense), Neftali and Holland, and our pen. IF they all step up, if Harden or Hamilton and Vlad, have career years or bounce back, then we can win the division.
2. Scott Feldman will win 15, but it doesnt matter if we have a 15 game winner, we need 88 wins in total. I dont care if Darren O'Day wins 20 , we need wins from everyone!
3. Nelson Cruz and Vlad both have 100 RBIS, if Kinsler comes back and is healthy.. I assume Michael Young will be, as he always has, a total bad ***.
4. Josh Hamilton, Harden, Vlad, and now Kinsler.
5. Angels. But it is not out of the question that Texas does. Oak has the pitching, NO OFFENSE. Sea has the top 2 starters and defense, but again, NO OFFENSE.