I still think this is the best team in baseball.
They have better hitting than the Dodgers, and I would argue their starters may be better too.
They have a better pen than the Phillies, but then, who doesn't?
They have a better defense than the Yanks, which happens when your average age is 44.
They have a better offense than the Red Sox, because they dont just pull balls off the monster.
They have a better offense, pitching, and defense than the Angels. I hate the Angels.
The Rays will still make the playoffs, I am probably in the minority here because everyone seems to think the Red Sox and Yanks will be the two Eastern teams who make it, but I feel the Rays have a better lineup top to bottom than either. In fact, no team in the history of baseball has ever reached 100 steals and 100 homers as quickly as Tampa did this week. In less than half the season, the Rays have done it. Super-utility man Ben Zobrist can play any position and has emerged as a legit 25+ homer threat in the place of 2b Aki Iwamura, who may be out for the year with a torn ACL.
Evan Longoria is probably the best defensive 3b in the majors, and arguably the best offensive one as well, pending A-Rod's recovery.
Jason Bartlett has become the best defensive SS in the league, and suprisingly, a top tiered offensive threat as well.
Bartlett, LF Carl Crawford, and CF BJ Upton will each steal 30 bases, the latter two should top 40+. First baseman Carlos Pena should slug 40 homers, and even though his average will linger around .250 all year, his defense and power, along with the 90+ walks he will net, make him a more than capable cleanup hitter.
The bullpen is coming around after an awful April and with the addition by subtraction of Troy Percival, the pen has become top 5 in the majors.
I think the Rays make the playoffs, and the world series as well.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Chicago Cubs Thoughts
I am a believer that when the regular season ends, the Cubs win the NL Central. Milwaukee has no pitching (outside of Yovani Gallardo), the Cardinals have no hitting (outside of Albert Pujols), and the Cubs are just 2.5 GB without their best hitter for the last 6 weeks. They have not hit a lick all year: Alfonso Soriano is hitting very near the Mendoza line (227 BA, 14 hrs, 7 sbs), Milton Bradley is even worse (247, 5 hrs and just 16 RBI's), and Derek Lee had just 5 hrs going into June. None of those players are that bad. They are all on the downside, and it remains to be seen how far along the curve they are, but they are not going to fall off as much as they have shown. They should all be in for huge second halves, especially Soriano. Once Aramis Ramirez returns, they instantly add a top 3 hitting 3b in the NL, and probably 15 hrs comes with him.
The bullpen has been massively overworked, as Lou Pinella's pens often are. Carlos Marmol has pitched in more than half the Cubs games (35 games, 32 innings), Kevin Gregg has done the same (33 games, 32 innings), both are on pace to supplant their career highs for appearances and innings. This is becoming a problem, particularly because Rich Harden has been so bad as a starter, he is a 3-5 inning pitcher this year. Luckily, Ted Lilly , Ryan Dempster, and Carlos Zambrano have been innings eaters, with each pitcher averaging close to 7IP per start.
I see no reason why the pitching would not hold up, none of the starters are doing naything out of the ordinary, and Harden (if healthy, as if) should improve dramatically. Assuming the bullpen's arms dont fall off, and frankly, it's a rather big assumption, the Cubs should be in for a big second half, even if they don't make a trade for another OF.
The bullpen has been massively overworked, as Lou Pinella's pens often are. Carlos Marmol has pitched in more than half the Cubs games (35 games, 32 innings), Kevin Gregg has done the same (33 games, 32 innings), both are on pace to supplant their career highs for appearances and innings. This is becoming a problem, particularly because Rich Harden has been so bad as a starter, he is a 3-5 inning pitcher this year. Luckily, Ted Lilly , Ryan Dempster, and Carlos Zambrano have been innings eaters, with each pitcher averaging close to 7IP per start.
I see no reason why the pitching would not hold up, none of the starters are doing naything out of the ordinary, and Harden (if healthy, as if) should improve dramatically. Assuming the bullpen's arms dont fall off, and frankly, it's a rather big assumption, the Cubs should be in for a big second half, even if they don't make a trade for another OF.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Thoughts du jour (Thats French)
The Yankees will not win the East with the team they have now.
First of all, A-Rod's career is on the downswing. That does not mean he is no longer good or great, but he is never going to be what he was. Obviously Posada, Jeter and Matsui are also on the downside of their careers also, probably much more so than A-Rod, in fact.
Secondly, this team has no bullpen outside of closer Mariano Rivera, and he is nearing the end as well. He is still a top 10 closer, but nowhere near the dominant pitcher he was just 2 years ago. That said, he is not the problem. The problem is the starters (Chamberlain, Pettite, Wang, and sometimes Burnett) are all 5 inning pitchers. The Yanks have nobody to pitch the 6th, 7th, or 8th right now. Even if Brian Bruney comes back and is his old self, they still have no 6th or 7th inning guy. My suggestion is to pull Chamberlain out of the rotation and make him the 7th and/or 8th inning guy. I know this is not a new idea, but he was incredible in 07 when they last made the playoffs. He had a sub 2 ERA and a sub 1 WHIP. Unless this team is going to go out and trade for Huston Street from the Rockies (which seems less likely by the day after the last 14 games, during which Colorado has won 13), or Jose Valverde from Houston, they will have to make a move from within. Both Phil Hughes and Chin Ming Wang are starters, unfamiliar with pitching every day or even every 2nd or 3rd day, so that would be a stretch. Chamberlain is a max effort pitcher who can strike out any batter, pretty much whenever he so chooses. Get him out of the rotation, put Hughes in, and put Joba in the pen.
Also, the Yanks need another bat or they will finish third in the east. As much as I hate the Red Sox, they seem to be the best overall team in that division, at least until Tampa Bay can get on any sort of roll at all.
First of all, A-Rod's career is on the downswing. That does not mean he is no longer good or great, but he is never going to be what he was. Obviously Posada, Jeter and Matsui are also on the downside of their careers also, probably much more so than A-Rod, in fact.
Secondly, this team has no bullpen outside of closer Mariano Rivera, and he is nearing the end as well. He is still a top 10 closer, but nowhere near the dominant pitcher he was just 2 years ago. That said, he is not the problem. The problem is the starters (Chamberlain, Pettite, Wang, and sometimes Burnett) are all 5 inning pitchers. The Yanks have nobody to pitch the 6th, 7th, or 8th right now. Even if Brian Bruney comes back and is his old self, they still have no 6th or 7th inning guy. My suggestion is to pull Chamberlain out of the rotation and make him the 7th and/or 8th inning guy. I know this is not a new idea, but he was incredible in 07 when they last made the playoffs. He had a sub 2 ERA and a sub 1 WHIP. Unless this team is going to go out and trade for Huston Street from the Rockies (which seems less likely by the day after the last 14 games, during which Colorado has won 13), or Jose Valverde from Houston, they will have to make a move from within. Both Phil Hughes and Chin Ming Wang are starters, unfamiliar with pitching every day or even every 2nd or 3rd day, so that would be a stretch. Chamberlain is a max effort pitcher who can strike out any batter, pretty much whenever he so chooses. Get him out of the rotation, put Hughes in, and put Joba in the pen.
Also, the Yanks need another bat or they will finish third in the east. As much as I hate the Red Sox, they seem to be the best overall team in that division, at least until Tampa Bay can get on any sort of roll at all.
Monday, June 15, 2009
Thoughts on Tribe
Cleveland: If they can get Sizemore back soon, and/or SS Asdrubal Cabrera, their team will instantly become a contender in the very very average AL Central. Jamey Carroll should not be playing everyday, but because of Cabrera's injury, he is. If Cabrera comes back they can shift Luis Valbuena to second, and bench Carroll for spot play.
If Sizemore comes back. they can put Ben Francisco on the bench, or move him to leftfield. If they put him in left, they can move LF/3b Mark Derosa to either second or third, and possibly bench Valbuena, who is a zero at the plate right now. You add the defense of Cabrera and the offense and defense of Sizemore, and there is no reason this team can't get back to .500 before the All-Star Break. Assuming the Tigers and Twins continue their mercurial play, neither will be much more than .500 at the break. So if the Indians get to the break even mark, they will presumably be about 3-4 games out of first, which is nothing in today's unbalanced intra-divisional schedule. A lot of big ifs, but possible. Also, righty Jake Westbrook is going to come back from Tommy John surgery soon. He cannot possibly be any worse than Jeremy Sowers.
The biggest problem with the Indians for the 2.5 months of the 09 season is the bullpen. They have blown small and huge leads. They have blown home and road leads. Unless moves are made in that pen, they won't win the division. However, they have a shot to get back in it, and once that happens, you never know.
If Sizemore comes back. they can put Ben Francisco on the bench, or move him to leftfield. If they put him in left, they can move LF/3b Mark Derosa to either second or third, and possibly bench Valbuena, who is a zero at the plate right now. You add the defense of Cabrera and the offense and defense of Sizemore, and there is no reason this team can't get back to .500 before the All-Star Break. Assuming the Tigers and Twins continue their mercurial play, neither will be much more than .500 at the break. So if the Indians get to the break even mark, they will presumably be about 3-4 games out of first, which is nothing in today's unbalanced intra-divisional schedule. A lot of big ifs, but possible. Also, righty Jake Westbrook is going to come back from Tommy John surgery soon. He cannot possibly be any worse than Jeremy Sowers.
The biggest problem with the Indians for the 2.5 months of the 09 season is the bullpen. They have blown small and huge leads. They have blown home and road leads. Unless moves are made in that pen, they won't win the division. However, they have a shot to get back in it, and once that happens, you never know.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Updated NL EAST Predictions
1. Phillies 92-70: As I predicted prior to the year, I still believe the Phils win the east. I now believe it will be easier than I thought it would though. The Phils continue to mash the ball and play thru injuries.SP Cole Hamels is just now rounding into form, closer Brad Lidge has been as bad as he can be, SS Jimmy Rollins has been awful, yet the Phils are in first by 3 games. Brett Myers is out for the year, the Phils have two rookie southpaws in the starting rotation and it isnt slowing them down. We will see if it lasts but due to the fact that this team plays such good defense and has such fantastic offensive chemistry, I stick to my earlier call.
2. New York Mets, 88-74. I think the Mets are a better team than we have seen, but they clearly are not what people thought they would be. Carlos Delgado may be out all year, Jose Reyes has missed a month already, JJ Putz is out for a month or two, and the team is all over the place. They have a great closer finally, and Johan Santana has been as good as ever, but the team plays awful defense and has yet to hit for power throughout the lineup.
3. Atlanta Braves 86-76. The team is very similar to the Mets in that they simply cannot get any offensive consistency. Their late game pitching has been very solid, for once. Their starters have been fine, probably the best in the division, but the defense has been average at best. The problem here is the offense. 3b Chipper Jones has been in and out of the lineup, and probably will be all year. Without him, they have no power hitting at all other than C Brian McCann. Add tot he fact that catchers wear down over the course of a season, and the Braves need Jones in the lineup to have any shot at the wildcard. RF Jeff Franceour has been awful, 2b Kelly Johnson has regressed, and LF Garrett Anderson is crappy. The Braves traded for CF Nate McLouth last week, which should add 3-4 wins to their total, both because of his offensive upgrade over Jordan Schafer and his top tier defense, but the team has too many holes right now to win the east. Still, I think the wildcard is obtainable, especially if the Cubs continue to stink.
4. Florida Marlins 77-85. They started 11-1, everyone thought they were the bees knees but most baseball realists knew this team simply doesnt have the defense, hitting, bullpen, or starters to maintain that pace. The biggest bright spot has been the pitching of ace righty Josh Johnson who is fully recovered and again dominant after his surgery of 2 seasons ago. He has pitched as well as anyone in baseball and is a major star in the making. 1b Jorge Cantu has had a nice year, but they have gotten average to below average production from their outfield and pretty much every spot ont he field but 1st and short (Hanley Ramirez). Their pen has been solid, aside from closer Matty Lidstrom. SP Annibal Sanchez is hurt again, SP Andrew Miller has not gotten better, and SP Ricky Nolasco has been all over the place. Their are very few bright spots so far for everyone's favorite offseason sleeper team.
5. Washington Nationals. 58-104. Wow. Just abysmal. Good news first: Offseason signee RF/LF Adam Dunn has been fantastic, hitting for power and for once, average as well (265 compared to 245 last year). CF Lastings Milledge was sent down, again. Possible maniac CF Elijah Dukes has been pretty good, hitting for power and playing slightly above average defense in Milledge's stead. 3b Ryan Zimmerman had a monster first 6 weeks and is certainly carrying his own, as are SS Cristian Guzman and 1b Nick Johnson. The bullpen has blown a ton of saves, and shows no sign of getting better. The Nats simply have no closer and everyone who has tried, has failed on an almost immeasurable scale. They have 4 rookies in their starting rotation, which I must confess to never having seen before. None of those pitchers (Sergio Martis, Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler, and Craig Stammen) has been awful, which is nice. In fact, Martis and Zimmermann have actually thrown pretty well, considering how bad the team is. The best thing anyone could say about the Nats is they will draft college stud Steevn Strasberg with their first overall pick. This kid can throw 102mph and doesnt walk anyone at all. So thats the best news of all in a world of bad news for Washington fans. Wait till next year, again.
2. New York Mets, 88-74. I think the Mets are a better team than we have seen, but they clearly are not what people thought they would be. Carlos Delgado may be out all year, Jose Reyes has missed a month already, JJ Putz is out for a month or two, and the team is all over the place. They have a great closer finally, and Johan Santana has been as good as ever, but the team plays awful defense and has yet to hit for power throughout the lineup.
3. Atlanta Braves 86-76. The team is very similar to the Mets in that they simply cannot get any offensive consistency. Their late game pitching has been very solid, for once. Their starters have been fine, probably the best in the division, but the defense has been average at best. The problem here is the offense. 3b Chipper Jones has been in and out of the lineup, and probably will be all year. Without him, they have no power hitting at all other than C Brian McCann. Add tot he fact that catchers wear down over the course of a season, and the Braves need Jones in the lineup to have any shot at the wildcard. RF Jeff Franceour has been awful, 2b Kelly Johnson has regressed, and LF Garrett Anderson is crappy. The Braves traded for CF Nate McLouth last week, which should add 3-4 wins to their total, both because of his offensive upgrade over Jordan Schafer and his top tier defense, but the team has too many holes right now to win the east. Still, I think the wildcard is obtainable, especially if the Cubs continue to stink.
4. Florida Marlins 77-85. They started 11-1, everyone thought they were the bees knees but most baseball realists knew this team simply doesnt have the defense, hitting, bullpen, or starters to maintain that pace. The biggest bright spot has been the pitching of ace righty Josh Johnson who is fully recovered and again dominant after his surgery of 2 seasons ago. He has pitched as well as anyone in baseball and is a major star in the making. 1b Jorge Cantu has had a nice year, but they have gotten average to below average production from their outfield and pretty much every spot ont he field but 1st and short (Hanley Ramirez). Their pen has been solid, aside from closer Matty Lidstrom. SP Annibal Sanchez is hurt again, SP Andrew Miller has not gotten better, and SP Ricky Nolasco has been all over the place. Their are very few bright spots so far for everyone's favorite offseason sleeper team.
5. Washington Nationals. 58-104. Wow. Just abysmal. Good news first: Offseason signee RF/LF Adam Dunn has been fantastic, hitting for power and for once, average as well (265 compared to 245 last year). CF Lastings Milledge was sent down, again. Possible maniac CF Elijah Dukes has been pretty good, hitting for power and playing slightly above average defense in Milledge's stead. 3b Ryan Zimmerman had a monster first 6 weeks and is certainly carrying his own, as are SS Cristian Guzman and 1b Nick Johnson. The bullpen has blown a ton of saves, and shows no sign of getting better. The Nats simply have no closer and everyone who has tried, has failed on an almost immeasurable scale. They have 4 rookies in their starting rotation, which I must confess to never having seen before. None of those pitchers (Sergio Martis, Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler, and Craig Stammen) has been awful, which is nice. In fact, Martis and Zimmermann have actually thrown pretty well, considering how bad the team is. The best thing anyone could say about the Nats is they will draft college stud Steevn Strasberg with their first overall pick. This kid can throw 102mph and doesnt walk anyone at all. So thats the best news of all in a world of bad news for Washington fans. Wait till next year, again.
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Updated NL West Predictions
NL WEST
1st. Dodgers 100-62: Manny Ramirez was suspended for 50 games and it has not slowed the team at all. They have since swept the Mets, taken 2 of 3 in Philly and also 2 of 3 in Florida. They have beaten everyone they have played, they have throttled the opposition at every turn, their bullpen has been great, their defense has been great, and their starting pitching has held together (multiple quality starts from Eric Milton, Jeff Weaver, and Eric Stults). Nothing can slow this team down. Juan Pierre has hit .400 for about a month now.
2nd. Arizona 80-82: Brandon Webb will come back soon, but it is far too late. This team does not work counts, does not hold leads, and is in general dissarray. The bullpen has blown huge leads over and over again and shows no signs of getting better. My guess is the fire sale starts soon, which could push them down to about 75 wins. Letting their young players develop is the best thing that can happen at this point.
3rd: San Francisco 79-83. This team just cannot hit, especially on the road. They have two of the top 10 pitchers in the NL (Cain and Lincecum), a rejuvenated and solid Barry Zito, a very good home record, but they score less than 4 runs a game which allows almost no room for mistakes. The Giants may have the worst infield in the league, playing the immoble Edgard Renteria (SS) and Juan Uribe (3b) on the left side of their infield. They may make a trade and get over 81 wins, but they are wasting their time because they cannot compete with Milwaukee, Atlanta, Philly, St Louis, Atlanta, or the Mets for the Wild Card.
4th: Colorado 70-92. I knew they would be bad but I did not know they would be this bad. They have already fired Clint Hurdle and replaced him with the worst manager in the game (Jim Tracy). Garrett Atkins (3b/1b) and Troy Tulowitzki (ss) have taken giants steps backwards as far as hitting, and their bullpen has imploded. Their pitching has not been as bad as usual, but the team is atrocious in one-run games, which leads me to think improvement is possibly. Todd Helton has had a great bounceback season and rookie CF Dexter Fowler looks like a special player. Other than that, there is no good news. Pretty much the same Rockies team we see every year (save for July-October 2007).
5th San Diego 67-95: I am amazed this team has won as much as they have. They are about .500 right now, even though they have basically tried to give away the entire team already. Jake Peavy is as good as gone, Tony Gwynn Jr is starting in center (along with 2-3 other everyday players who should not be in the league, namely Kevin Kouzmanoff and whoever plays short or second on any given day). The lone bright spots have been the incredible season and power of Adrian Gonzalez (why anyone pitches to him is beyond me), the solid play of Scott Hairson in left and center, and the fantastic shutdown closer Heath Bell, who has MORE than filled in for Trevor Hoffman and has only one blown save. The team has no choice but to play the hand they are dealt but their minors must be empty if they continue to start Kouzmanoff and Eckstein everyday.
1st. Dodgers 100-62: Manny Ramirez was suspended for 50 games and it has not slowed the team at all. They have since swept the Mets, taken 2 of 3 in Philly and also 2 of 3 in Florida. They have beaten everyone they have played, they have throttled the opposition at every turn, their bullpen has been great, their defense has been great, and their starting pitching has held together (multiple quality starts from Eric Milton, Jeff Weaver, and Eric Stults). Nothing can slow this team down. Juan Pierre has hit .400 for about a month now.
2nd. Arizona 80-82: Brandon Webb will come back soon, but it is far too late. This team does not work counts, does not hold leads, and is in general dissarray. The bullpen has blown huge leads over and over again and shows no signs of getting better. My guess is the fire sale starts soon, which could push them down to about 75 wins. Letting their young players develop is the best thing that can happen at this point.
3rd: San Francisco 79-83. This team just cannot hit, especially on the road. They have two of the top 10 pitchers in the NL (Cain and Lincecum), a rejuvenated and solid Barry Zito, a very good home record, but they score less than 4 runs a game which allows almost no room for mistakes. The Giants may have the worst infield in the league, playing the immoble Edgard Renteria (SS) and Juan Uribe (3b) on the left side of their infield. They may make a trade and get over 81 wins, but they are wasting their time because they cannot compete with Milwaukee, Atlanta, Philly, St Louis, Atlanta, or the Mets for the Wild Card.
4th: Colorado 70-92. I knew they would be bad but I did not know they would be this bad. They have already fired Clint Hurdle and replaced him with the worst manager in the game (Jim Tracy). Garrett Atkins (3b/1b) and Troy Tulowitzki (ss) have taken giants steps backwards as far as hitting, and their bullpen has imploded. Their pitching has not been as bad as usual, but the team is atrocious in one-run games, which leads me to think improvement is possibly. Todd Helton has had a great bounceback season and rookie CF Dexter Fowler looks like a special player. Other than that, there is no good news. Pretty much the same Rockies team we see every year (save for July-October 2007).
5th San Diego 67-95: I am amazed this team has won as much as they have. They are about .500 right now, even though they have basically tried to give away the entire team already. Jake Peavy is as good as gone, Tony Gwynn Jr is starting in center (along with 2-3 other everyday players who should not be in the league, namely Kevin Kouzmanoff and whoever plays short or second on any given day). The lone bright spots have been the incredible season and power of Adrian Gonzalez (why anyone pitches to him is beyond me), the solid play of Scott Hairson in left and center, and the fantastic shutdown closer Heath Bell, who has MORE than filled in for Trevor Hoffman and has only one blown save. The team has no choice but to play the hand they are dealt but their minors must be empty if they continue to start Kouzmanoff and Eckstein everyday.
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