Well, just a day or two after my NL Central updates,the Cardinals went and changed everything.
They added the number one available bat in Oakland's LF Matt Holliday. Granted, Holliday has not had much of a year to write about, until the last week, during which he netted 3 of his 11 homers, 11 of his 54 RBI's, 4 of his 23 doubles, and a few steals as well. Essentially the week of July 16-23 has given him about 25-30% of his production this season. None of this matters I suppose, who cares how he gets to 25 homers as long as he does so, but my point was illustrating that he had done very very little on the year until recently. Nevertheless, this changes the divisional dynamics quite a bit.
I no longer expect the Cubs to win the Central, in fact I dont even think they will make the playoffs. I will stick to the Rockies winning the Wild Card but I will flip-flop my top two in the NL Central, pushing the Cards about 3 games ahead of the Cubbies. I think Holliday should produce enough, and his prescence will also help maintain Albert Pujols' numbers. It is important to note that Holliday goes from the most extreme pitchers' park in the league, to a pretty decent hitters park. He will now hit behind the best player in baseball, as opposed to the mediocrity the A's have been putting out everyday. He will be protected by near All-Stars in Mark DeRosa and Ryan Ludwick which will push his run totals up a bunch as well.
I will not be suprised if he exceeds his Oakland totals (286 BA, 454 Slug, 11hrs, 54 rbis, 52 runs, and 12 sbs, 95 games) in 70 games. He will also have the added motivation, I suppose, of the playoff and possible World Series run, and of course his impending Free Agency.
This move pushes Rick Ankiel into a platoon role, at best. Ankiel is a plus defender, a minus hitter, but as a 4th outfielder, the depth he adds will be very significant. To have a decent starter on the bench, available to play any of the OF spots with top tier defense is a plus. He will often be a late inning replacement for RF Ryan Ludwick, will give Holliday and CF Colby Rasmus the occasional day off against righties, and provide valuable insurance as a left-handed bat off the bench.
The Cards now have all the pieces to go to the World Series again. In righties Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, they have two of the top 10 pitchers in the NL. In Holliday, Pujols, DeRosa, and Ludwick, they have the best right-handed hitting in the NL. Their bullpen has overperformed, as closer Ryan Franklin is not going to maintain a 1.25 ERA unless he made a deal with Satan himself. Perhaps he did. It's something I would look into, if I have a chance. They have the best pitching in the NL Central now, and have all year. They may even have the best pitching in the NL, including the bullpen. Now they have an offense to compete with LA and Philly. I expect those three teams to battle it out for the NL title. If the Wild Card comes from Colorado, the Phillies benefit most of all, because the Dodgers would then be forced to play STL in round one, leaving the Rockies to the Phils. If the Cubs or Houston somehow make the playoffs, the Dodgers would get an easy ride into the NLCS. And if the Braves make the playoffs, the Phils and Cards would battle it out while LA would play ATL. So this trade changes things a ton. I will not be suprised if STL goes to the series. Philly now needs to go grab Roy Halladay, and fast!
Friday, July 24, 2009
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Updated NL Central Predictions
1. Cubs (85-77). This is by far the hardest division for me to forecast, given how there are 4 teams within about 3 games as of today. Each team has such glaring strengths and weaknesses that just about anything could happen. The Cubs have managed to hang around for 2 months without their best hitter (3b Aramis Ramirez). They have weathered the high 4 ERA of supposed ace starter Rich Harden. They have withstood a horrid first half for LF Alfonso Soriano (233 BA, 298 OBP). They have waited around all year for offseason mistake of the millenium Milton Bradley to do anything at all (238, 6 hrs, 21 RBI's). And still they are only 2 games back of STL. They just have too much talent for this to continue. The rest of the central has been mediocre, at best, allowing the Cubs to waitfor everything to come around. Starting out the second half at 5-2 is the first step, and if they can get improvements out of just two of their many injured or underperformers, they should win the division, though not easily.
2. St Louis. 84-78. It could very easily come down to the last week, and probably will. Anytime that happens, the second place team has a very good chance to win the division. Everything went right for STL in the first half. A huge season from Albert Pujols is always expected, and as usual he delivered. Righty Chris Carpenter has bounced back from injuries to lead the NL in ERA (2.2) and whip (.88). I dont know if that can continue. 8 wins and a 3 ERA from number 3 starter Joel Pineiro is also a big bonus. The most unexpected of all is closer Ryan Franklin, with a sub 1 ERA and whip, and 22 saves to validate his All-Star selection, he has been the biggest end of the bullpen shocker in the NL this season. There is simply no way a pitcher with a lifetime 265 BAA can maintain a 160 BAA. I suppose its possible, but I would not bank on it. Granted, the Cards added a solid right-handed bat in utility mega-stud Mark DeRosa, and he will add a lot to the lineup, so winning the division is very very possible. They have better starting pitching than the Cubs, it could be argued, though not as much depth. I suppose this is a toss-up between these two squads, and I am merely going with the underperformer to get back to the mean, rather than the overperformer continuing the run. Neither team will surprise me, regardless of the outcome.
3. Milwaukee 81-81. They have a few great hitters in Prince Fielder (313, 24 hr, 86 RBI's) and loudmouth LF Ryan Braun (306, 17, 60) , but beyond that, there is little to rely on. They have average, at best, pitching. Their stud pitcher is 8-7 with a 3.28 ERA (Yovani Gallardo) and seems to be tiring with each start. Their next 3 starters are averaging about 5 wins and a 5 ERA to go with them (Jeff Suppan, Braden Looper, and Manny Parra). Their pen has been a bright spot with lefty/righty combo Mitch Stetter and Todd Coffey and their dueling 2.64 ERA's. Closer Trevor Hoffman has been brilliant with 22 saves and a 1.91 ERA. But there is somehting missing on this team. Namely, starters. Very subpar pitching combined with slightly above average offense does not add up to much more than a 500 record and that is what you will get with this team.
4. Houston 80-82. A lot better than I thought they would be, and I am not quite sure how. They have a bad offense and not much beyond their two stud pitchers (Roy Oswalt and lefty Wandy Rodriguez). Lance Berkman is having a down year at 270 with 18 jacks and on pace for less than 90 RBI's for just the second time in a full season in his career. OF Carlos Lee is doing what he always does, hit 300 with 25 bombs and 100 RBI's. SS Miguel Tejada is having a nice bounceback year with a 325 average and a 50 doubles pace. I dont know how a team is in contention given that they are rolling Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz out to start 2 out of every 5 days. yet here they are, just 3 games back. I expect them to fold up, sooner or later, though their track record every year post ASB shows otherwise. I put no stock into that trend however, and feel that Wandy in particular is a good candidate to regress, given his current ERA of 2.72 and his career ERA of 4.42. It should end somewhere in between I would presume. If Berkman is hurt, and he may be given his numbers, this team will not be able to hang around much longer, because he is by far thir best hitter, and a top 10 hitter in the NL, if not all of baseball. This team is smoke and mirrors, and it will reveal itself in August or, at worst, September.
5. Cincinatti 74-88. They have 2 hitters who are not worthless : 1b Joey Votto (345 BA, 13 hrs, 430OBP) and 2b Brandon Phillips ( who should net 20+ hrs and sb's as he always does). Beyond that, they made one of the worst off-season moves in baseball by signing CF Wily Taveras (246 BA, 287 OBP) and then allowing him to lead off everyday. He is worthless and always has been. At the very least, madman manager and King of Morons Dusty Baker should bat Taveras 7th or 8th and let him run wild. They are also starting Chris Dickerson (15 XBH's in 81 games) everyday, even though he is a 5th outfielder on his good days, and AAAA player on his worst. RF Jay Bruce, pre-injury,was on pace for 30 hrs to go with his 220 BA, but he is young and they can let him develop. Their pen has been top 10 in the league, as it was last year, but with an offense that scores less than 4 runs per game, there is little need for lead protection. Johnny Cueto has been good (3.67 ERA, 1.27 WHIP ) in just his second year, and will only get better, so thats a plus. But Edison Volquez has once again been hurt and cannot seem to stay healthy for very long, ever. If this team is ever going to improve, they will need to stop starting players like Taveras, SS Jerry Hairston, and they will need to figure out which direction they are going. They send out 5-6 dead bats out every game, and hope that the pitchers throw shutouts in front of them. The GM and manager should be fired (GM for signing Taveras and MGR for playing him) and go from there. This team is hopeless.
6. Pittsburgh 72-90. Well, at least they try. The front office deals everyone, every year. From Jason Bay in 08 to Nate McLouth and Adam LaRoche in 09. My guess is they are not even yet done dealing. I feel bad for the players who stick around, they see everyone around them leave. Thsi team has dealt some good players too. They are giving all their young kids a look, and thats fine, but all the front office ends up doing is dealing them once the bills come due. Offensive bright spots include Garrett Jones and Andrew McCutcheon but not much else. Pitching bright spots include All-star Zach Duke and that about covers this shitty team.
2. St Louis. 84-78. It could very easily come down to the last week, and probably will. Anytime that happens, the second place team has a very good chance to win the division. Everything went right for STL in the first half. A huge season from Albert Pujols is always expected, and as usual he delivered. Righty Chris Carpenter has bounced back from injuries to lead the NL in ERA (2.2) and whip (.88). I dont know if that can continue. 8 wins and a 3 ERA from number 3 starter Joel Pineiro is also a big bonus. The most unexpected of all is closer Ryan Franklin, with a sub 1 ERA and whip, and 22 saves to validate his All-Star selection, he has been the biggest end of the bullpen shocker in the NL this season. There is simply no way a pitcher with a lifetime 265 BAA can maintain a 160 BAA. I suppose its possible, but I would not bank on it. Granted, the Cards added a solid right-handed bat in utility mega-stud Mark DeRosa, and he will add a lot to the lineup, so winning the division is very very possible. They have better starting pitching than the Cubs, it could be argued, though not as much depth. I suppose this is a toss-up between these two squads, and I am merely going with the underperformer to get back to the mean, rather than the overperformer continuing the run. Neither team will surprise me, regardless of the outcome.
3. Milwaukee 81-81. They have a few great hitters in Prince Fielder (313, 24 hr, 86 RBI's) and loudmouth LF Ryan Braun (306, 17, 60) , but beyond that, there is little to rely on. They have average, at best, pitching. Their stud pitcher is 8-7 with a 3.28 ERA (Yovani Gallardo) and seems to be tiring with each start. Their next 3 starters are averaging about 5 wins and a 5 ERA to go with them (Jeff Suppan, Braden Looper, and Manny Parra). Their pen has been a bright spot with lefty/righty combo Mitch Stetter and Todd Coffey and their dueling 2.64 ERA's. Closer Trevor Hoffman has been brilliant with 22 saves and a 1.91 ERA. But there is somehting missing on this team. Namely, starters. Very subpar pitching combined with slightly above average offense does not add up to much more than a 500 record and that is what you will get with this team.
4. Houston 80-82. A lot better than I thought they would be, and I am not quite sure how. They have a bad offense and not much beyond their two stud pitchers (Roy Oswalt and lefty Wandy Rodriguez). Lance Berkman is having a down year at 270 with 18 jacks and on pace for less than 90 RBI's for just the second time in a full season in his career. OF Carlos Lee is doing what he always does, hit 300 with 25 bombs and 100 RBI's. SS Miguel Tejada is having a nice bounceback year with a 325 average and a 50 doubles pace. I dont know how a team is in contention given that they are rolling Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz out to start 2 out of every 5 days. yet here they are, just 3 games back. I expect them to fold up, sooner or later, though their track record every year post ASB shows otherwise. I put no stock into that trend however, and feel that Wandy in particular is a good candidate to regress, given his current ERA of 2.72 and his career ERA of 4.42. It should end somewhere in between I would presume. If Berkman is hurt, and he may be given his numbers, this team will not be able to hang around much longer, because he is by far thir best hitter, and a top 10 hitter in the NL, if not all of baseball. This team is smoke and mirrors, and it will reveal itself in August or, at worst, September.
5. Cincinatti 74-88. They have 2 hitters who are not worthless : 1b Joey Votto (345 BA, 13 hrs, 430OBP) and 2b Brandon Phillips ( who should net 20+ hrs and sb's as he always does). Beyond that, they made one of the worst off-season moves in baseball by signing CF Wily Taveras (246 BA, 287 OBP) and then allowing him to lead off everyday. He is worthless and always has been. At the very least, madman manager and King of Morons Dusty Baker should bat Taveras 7th or 8th and let him run wild. They are also starting Chris Dickerson (15 XBH's in 81 games) everyday, even though he is a 5th outfielder on his good days, and AAAA player on his worst. RF Jay Bruce, pre-injury,was on pace for 30 hrs to go with his 220 BA, but he is young and they can let him develop. Their pen has been top 10 in the league, as it was last year, but with an offense that scores less than 4 runs per game, there is little need for lead protection. Johnny Cueto has been good (3.67 ERA, 1.27 WHIP ) in just his second year, and will only get better, so thats a plus. But Edison Volquez has once again been hurt and cannot seem to stay healthy for very long, ever. If this team is ever going to improve, they will need to stop starting players like Taveras, SS Jerry Hairston, and they will need to figure out which direction they are going. They send out 5-6 dead bats out every game, and hope that the pitchers throw shutouts in front of them. The GM and manager should be fired (GM for signing Taveras and MGR for playing him) and go from there. This team is hopeless.
6. Pittsburgh 72-90. Well, at least they try. The front office deals everyone, every year. From Jason Bay in 08 to Nate McLouth and Adam LaRoche in 09. My guess is they are not even yet done dealing. I feel bad for the players who stick around, they see everyone around them leave. Thsi team has dealt some good players too. They are giving all their young kids a look, and thats fine, but all the front office ends up doing is dealing them once the bills come due. Offensive bright spots include Garrett Jones and Andrew McCutcheon but not much else. Pitching bright spots include All-star Zach Duke and that about covers this shitty team.
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Updated NL EAST Predictions
1st. Phillies (92-70). I may have been wrong about Colorado, but I nailed this one spot on. I will not be humble, either. This team does not give a shit if they are down 15-0, they will come back. They know they will come back, they dont care who is pitching, be it a 46 year old with a high 70's heater (Jamie Moyer) or a cast-off who is about a mile past done (Rodrigo Lopez). They play the best defense in the NL. They have the best offense in the NL, and they weathered a June in which their bullpen blew 8 saves. They are up 7 games in their division with 8 blown saves in June. To me, thats astonishing. It doesnt matter if they lose close or get blown out, they never turn on each other and never slow down. Raul Ibanez is still having a career year , hitting .315 with 25 homers. The DL slowed him a bit in his quest for 100 RBI's and 100 runs, but he should still hit .300 with 35+ HR's, and I suppose the park gets a lot of credit (as well as his surrounding lineup). Jimmy Rollins gave them nothing thru June and still, they are up. Cole Hamels gave them very little also, and still, they win. They signed a 37 year old Pedro Martinez on the off chance he can give them something, anything at all. I doubt he will, but they do not need much with this offense. They are a lock to win the East. I am calling it over right now. Roy Halladay or not, it is done. Phils are going to be back in the World Series in a few months, barring injury.
2. Braves (86-76). I figure this is a bit of a reach, given the fact they have yet to get 2 games over 500 all year, but they have the best starting pitching in the NL, bar none, and their offense is coming around. Since the beginning of the year, this team has gone thru a lot: they have sent down prospect CF Jordan Schafer and replaced him with Nate McClouth, a huge upgrade. They have traded RF Jeff Franceour for Ryan Church, another upgrade, though not a huge one. They have called up righty Tommy Hanson and he has been fantastic, netting a sub 3 era along with a spotless 5-0 record. They have benched 2b Kelly Johnson for Martin Prado (negligible difference) and they have settled on a closer: Rafael Soriano (1 blown save). The team has weather close loss after close loss, lack of power, and is starting to put pieces together. The division is so bad outside of Philly, Atlanta has a decent shot at the wild card.
3. Florida (79-83). Since I have to pick a third place team, I guess I will pick Florida. This is solely third place by attrition, because the Mets are fielding a team consisting of 5 minor leaguers, a circus clown and 2 gypsies. Florida still has a top 5 player (SS Hanley Ramirez) and a top 10 pitcher (righty Josh Johnson) but beyond that, not much. Their pen has been a disaster, 2b Dan Uggla (260 in 08, 227 in 09) has regressed and RF Jeremy Hermedia has not developed as hoped. 1b Jorge Cantu has been solid, but they have gotten nothing from 3b or LF. This team is aimless and will probably not get any better until they get a new stadium and more revenue. Another wasted year for the Fish.
4. Mets (75-87). I know the Mets wont be winning 80 games, and I assume that they wont be rushing back their hurt superstars (CF Carlos Beltran, 1b Carlos Delgado, and SS Jose "Carlos" Reyes), so perhaps they will not even win 77 games. What a horrid season. Nothing has gone right in the debut of their new stadium. 3b David Wright is on pace for less than 15 homers, maybe not even 10. They are getting zero production from almost every single spot in the order. They dont pitch, they dont hit, they dont play defense. They have a bad manager, a bad GM, and one pitcher worth mentioning (lefty Johan Santana). They paid $15 mil a year for a closer they cannot use (because they are never winning) and things are not going to get better. This team blows September leads every year, and now they will enter the month no less than 10 games back of Philly and possibly Atlanta as well. The only chance they have to win 80 games is if all their players come back completely healthy and ready to play. Frankly, there is no reason to risk it. They are done. They are garbage.
5. Washington (59-103). Possibly the worst team I have ever seen. I still dont know how they are this bad. They have some talent. I guess when you lose it snowballs and gets worse. This team could lose 110-120 games. Its possible. I would not be shocked. Not much else to say.
2. Braves (86-76). I figure this is a bit of a reach, given the fact they have yet to get 2 games over 500 all year, but they have the best starting pitching in the NL, bar none, and their offense is coming around. Since the beginning of the year, this team has gone thru a lot: they have sent down prospect CF Jordan Schafer and replaced him with Nate McClouth, a huge upgrade. They have traded RF Jeff Franceour for Ryan Church, another upgrade, though not a huge one. They have called up righty Tommy Hanson and he has been fantastic, netting a sub 3 era along with a spotless 5-0 record. They have benched 2b Kelly Johnson for Martin Prado (negligible difference) and they have settled on a closer: Rafael Soriano (1 blown save). The team has weather close loss after close loss, lack of power, and is starting to put pieces together. The division is so bad outside of Philly, Atlanta has a decent shot at the wild card.
3. Florida (79-83). Since I have to pick a third place team, I guess I will pick Florida. This is solely third place by attrition, because the Mets are fielding a team consisting of 5 minor leaguers, a circus clown and 2 gypsies. Florida still has a top 5 player (SS Hanley Ramirez) and a top 10 pitcher (righty Josh Johnson) but beyond that, not much. Their pen has been a disaster, 2b Dan Uggla (260 in 08, 227 in 09) has regressed and RF Jeremy Hermedia has not developed as hoped. 1b Jorge Cantu has been solid, but they have gotten nothing from 3b or LF. This team is aimless and will probably not get any better until they get a new stadium and more revenue. Another wasted year for the Fish.
4. Mets (75-87). I know the Mets wont be winning 80 games, and I assume that they wont be rushing back their hurt superstars (CF Carlos Beltran, 1b Carlos Delgado, and SS Jose "Carlos" Reyes), so perhaps they will not even win 77 games. What a horrid season. Nothing has gone right in the debut of their new stadium. 3b David Wright is on pace for less than 15 homers, maybe not even 10. They are getting zero production from almost every single spot in the order. They dont pitch, they dont hit, they dont play defense. They have a bad manager, a bad GM, and one pitcher worth mentioning (lefty Johan Santana). They paid $15 mil a year for a closer they cannot use (because they are never winning) and things are not going to get better. This team blows September leads every year, and now they will enter the month no less than 10 games back of Philly and possibly Atlanta as well. The only chance they have to win 80 games is if all their players come back completely healthy and ready to play. Frankly, there is no reason to risk it. They are done. They are garbage.
5. Washington (59-103). Possibly the worst team I have ever seen. I still dont know how they are this bad. They have some talent. I guess when you lose it snowballs and gets worse. This team could lose 110-120 games. Its possible. I would not be shocked. Not much else to say.
Monday, July 20, 2009
NL West Projection
1st. Dodgers (100-62). Since day 1 of the season, nothing has changed at all. This is the best team in the division. They have the best bullpen in baseball perhaps. They have very good starting pitching, and they have a top 3 NL offense. Their defense is also top 3 in the NL. One problem that is beginning to rear it's head is the lack of rotation depth. Chad Billingsley has really fallen off in the last month, his arm seems tired, he has yet to log a victory since June 14th (vs Texas), and his ERA has risen each month. Hiroki Kuroda has been average, at best, over his last several starts.
If I am the Dodgers, I go get Roy Halladay right now, because even though they will win the west, they wont get past round 1 of the playoffs because their arms will be toast by then. This team lost ZERO games in the standings with Manny Ramirez out, which shows me all I need to know about who will win the division. It really seems to be no contest.
2nd. Colorado (88-74). Boy was I wrong about this one. I know they have talent, but I had no idea the pitching would be this good. They have won 30 of their last 40 games (and gained only 5 or 6 games on the Dodgers), but the Wild Card is well within reach. This team has a great offense, arguably as good as the Dodgers. Their starters have been pretty good also, with a breakout year from Ubaldo Jimenez and possibly Jorge De La Rosa as well. Jason Marquis has been a great FA pickup, nothing 12 wins before August. Huston Street has been a great pickup, and the loss of Matt Holliday has turned out to be no loss at all. I expect Colorado to win the wild card, unless the Giants pick up a bat or two.
3rd. Giants (86-76). Another one I missed. This one boggles my brain. I see how I was wrong about Colorado, they have good hitters and their pitchers have improved. But the Giants have one above average hitter, Pablo Sandoval, and I find it hard to believe he is capable of carrying a team. The Giants do have the best pitcher in baseball, 08 Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum. They also have Matt Cain, who is argualby a top 10 mlb starter, and certainly a top 10 NL pithcer. But Barry Zito has been horrid, Randy Johnson has been up and down, and the 5th spot has given them very little. The bullpen has been a strength, closer Brian Wilson, generic gangster Irishman, has given them 21 saves and blown but 5. Lefty set-up man Jeremy Affeldt has been fantastic. So I suppose the pen has been a strength. But this team struggles to score, ranking in the bottom 5 in the majors in runs per game. I think this team will fall off, unless they get at least 1 bat (either a corner IF or a corner OF), maybe both. I simply see no way they can keep this up with the hitters they have.
4. Arizona (70-92). what a dissappointment. Perhaps no team in the league has underachieved like the D-Backs. From Brandon Webb getting hurt in week 1, to the total crap that CF Chris Young and LF Eric Byrnes have been. From the bullpen to the defense, from the manager to the front office, everything has gone wrong. Even the most ardent D-Backs fan would not say otherwise. The bright spots have been few, three to be exact: starter Daniel "Danny" Haren has been as good as any pitcher in baseball (1.96 ERA thru mid July). RF Justin Upton has become a major offensive force (on pace for to hit over 290, with 25+ Hr's and SB's, along with over 90 runs and RBI's. 3b Mark Reynolds has become quite an offensive force himself, on pace for over 35 HR's and 25+ SB's, along with over 100 RBI's. He may strike out 190 times, but his power production (and sudden ability to steal bases), has turned a lot of heads. This team will be better next year, they can't be any worse, but they division is passing them by.
5. Padres (62-100). Well, this one I nailed spot on. They have one major league hitter on their roster in Adrian Gonzalez, but even he can't carry a roster of 5th starters (Kevin Correia, Tim Stauffer, Chad Gaudin), castoffs (Tony Gwynn Jr, David Eckstein) and worthless garbage (Kevin Kouzmanoff, Luis Rodriguez, Chase Headley, and everyone else). The sole bright spot is the closer, Heath Bell. Bell has replaced HOF'er Trevor Hoffman very ably. He has dominated opposing batters and been near perfect. In short, he has been as good as just about any closer in the game. Honestly though, anything more than 1 paragraph about the Padres is wasted space.
If I am the Dodgers, I go get Roy Halladay right now, because even though they will win the west, they wont get past round 1 of the playoffs because their arms will be toast by then. This team lost ZERO games in the standings with Manny Ramirez out, which shows me all I need to know about who will win the division. It really seems to be no contest.
2nd. Colorado (88-74). Boy was I wrong about this one. I know they have talent, but I had no idea the pitching would be this good. They have won 30 of their last 40 games (and gained only 5 or 6 games on the Dodgers), but the Wild Card is well within reach. This team has a great offense, arguably as good as the Dodgers. Their starters have been pretty good also, with a breakout year from Ubaldo Jimenez and possibly Jorge De La Rosa as well. Jason Marquis has been a great FA pickup, nothing 12 wins before August. Huston Street has been a great pickup, and the loss of Matt Holliday has turned out to be no loss at all. I expect Colorado to win the wild card, unless the Giants pick up a bat or two.
3rd. Giants (86-76). Another one I missed. This one boggles my brain. I see how I was wrong about Colorado, they have good hitters and their pitchers have improved. But the Giants have one above average hitter, Pablo Sandoval, and I find it hard to believe he is capable of carrying a team. The Giants do have the best pitcher in baseball, 08 Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum. They also have Matt Cain, who is argualby a top 10 mlb starter, and certainly a top 10 NL pithcer. But Barry Zito has been horrid, Randy Johnson has been up and down, and the 5th spot has given them very little. The bullpen has been a strength, closer Brian Wilson, generic gangster Irishman, has given them 21 saves and blown but 5. Lefty set-up man Jeremy Affeldt has been fantastic. So I suppose the pen has been a strength. But this team struggles to score, ranking in the bottom 5 in the majors in runs per game. I think this team will fall off, unless they get at least 1 bat (either a corner IF or a corner OF), maybe both. I simply see no way they can keep this up with the hitters they have.
4. Arizona (70-92). what a dissappointment. Perhaps no team in the league has underachieved like the D-Backs. From Brandon Webb getting hurt in week 1, to the total crap that CF Chris Young and LF Eric Byrnes have been. From the bullpen to the defense, from the manager to the front office, everything has gone wrong. Even the most ardent D-Backs fan would not say otherwise. The bright spots have been few, three to be exact: starter Daniel "Danny" Haren has been as good as any pitcher in baseball (1.96 ERA thru mid July). RF Justin Upton has become a major offensive force (on pace for to hit over 290, with 25+ Hr's and SB's, along with over 90 runs and RBI's. 3b Mark Reynolds has become quite an offensive force himself, on pace for over 35 HR's and 25+ SB's, along with over 100 RBI's. He may strike out 190 times, but his power production (and sudden ability to steal bases), has turned a lot of heads. This team will be better next year, they can't be any worse, but they division is passing them by.
5. Padres (62-100). Well, this one I nailed spot on. They have one major league hitter on their roster in Adrian Gonzalez, but even he can't carry a roster of 5th starters (Kevin Correia, Tim Stauffer, Chad Gaudin), castoffs (Tony Gwynn Jr, David Eckstein) and worthless garbage (Kevin Kouzmanoff, Luis Rodriguez, Chase Headley, and everyone else). The sole bright spot is the closer, Heath Bell. Bell has replaced HOF'er Trevor Hoffman very ably. He has dominated opposing batters and been near perfect. In short, he has been as good as just about any closer in the game. Honestly though, anything more than 1 paragraph about the Padres is wasted space.
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Can The Giants Keep It Up?
One of the most surprising stories of the year thus far is the San Francisco Giants. Everyone knew they had good starters, Tim Lincecum won the Cy Young last year and Matt Cain has joined him as a top 10 major league pitcher. What we did not know was that the bullpen would be so solid, and that the Giants hitting would be buoyed by a smallish fatman named Pablo Sandoval.
The tubby switch hitter can play first and third (ideally first) and even spelled starting catcher Bengie Molina occasionally during day games after night games. His versatility is surpassed only by his uncanny ability to make contact with seemingly every pitch he swings at (and he swings at every pitch he sees). Sandoval loves donuts and candies, clearly, but he also seems to like hanging sliders and fastballs down the pipe. He led the National League with a .400 average in June, and while he ceratinly cannot keep that up, there is no reason to think he can't match the power he has shown thus far. He has 11 homers to date, leading the Giants. While the total itself is unimpressive, and the fact he is leading a below average offense in homers is also not bragworthy, the fact he has developed power in just his second year, to go along with his .330 average is certainly noteable. I see no reason why he cannot notch 20-25 jacks along with a 310 average. I do not think he can keep up this pace as far as BA goes. He doesnt lay off pitches, and he would seriously buck the norm to hit 330 while swinging at every pitch he sees.
The Giants still have a bottom 5 offense in baseball, and nothing will change that all year, unless they deal for a power hitting OF or corner IF. I expect this team to make a run at the wild card if they can get themselves a hitter. If they dont, I think they will fall short, though not too far. The pen is solid enough to hold it together, especially with the fact that Lincecum and Cain go 7-8 innings per start. Barry Zito is garbage, though slightly improved over last year. Randy Johnson is fine, and about a 6 inning pitcher. They need to settle the 5th starter's role, ideally getting a 6+ inning guy. Otherwise they will waste a solid pen by August.
I look for 83-85 wins from the Giants, will puts them very much in the wild card hunt. I think they will fall short in the end, losing out to the Mets, Phils, Braves, or Brewers.
The tubby switch hitter can play first and third (ideally first) and even spelled starting catcher Bengie Molina occasionally during day games after night games. His versatility is surpassed only by his uncanny ability to make contact with seemingly every pitch he swings at (and he swings at every pitch he sees). Sandoval loves donuts and candies, clearly, but he also seems to like hanging sliders and fastballs down the pipe. He led the National League with a .400 average in June, and while he ceratinly cannot keep that up, there is no reason to think he can't match the power he has shown thus far. He has 11 homers to date, leading the Giants. While the total itself is unimpressive, and the fact he is leading a below average offense in homers is also not bragworthy, the fact he has developed power in just his second year, to go along with his .330 average is certainly noteable. I see no reason why he cannot notch 20-25 jacks along with a 310 average. I do not think he can keep up this pace as far as BA goes. He doesnt lay off pitches, and he would seriously buck the norm to hit 330 while swinging at every pitch he sees.
The Giants still have a bottom 5 offense in baseball, and nothing will change that all year, unless they deal for a power hitting OF or corner IF. I expect this team to make a run at the wild card if they can get themselves a hitter. If they dont, I think they will fall short, though not too far. The pen is solid enough to hold it together, especially with the fact that Lincecum and Cain go 7-8 innings per start. Barry Zito is garbage, though slightly improved over last year. Randy Johnson is fine, and about a 6 inning pitcher. They need to settle the 5th starter's role, ideally getting a 6+ inning guy. Otherwise they will waste a solid pen by August.
I look for 83-85 wins from the Giants, will puts them very much in the wild card hunt. I think they will fall short in the end, losing out to the Mets, Phils, Braves, or Brewers.
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