Wednesday, October 7, 2009

First round playoff predictions

Colorado @ Phils: I expect Philly to win this series in 4 games, at most. They are substantially better on defense, starting pitching, and defense as well. The only weak spot they have is the pen, which they may not even need with the slightly above average Rockies starters.

StL@ Dodgers: I expect a Cards win here, also in 4 games. I wont be shocked if it is a sweep. I wont be shocked if it takes 5 games either, but i do think Cards win. Joe Torre has made the moronic decision to start Randy Wolf in game 1 instead of Clayton Kershaw, by far his best pitcher and arguably the best lefty in the NL. The Cards dont hit lefties well. Granted, Wolf is alefty , but he aint Clayton Kershaw. The only advantage the Dodgers have is in the pen. The Cards pen is solid, but not spectacular. The Dodgers pen is spectacular. Dodgers have better defense, but the top of the rotation for StL brings such a dramatic advantage to the table that the Dodgers are outclassed, by a mile.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

ONE game playoff. Tigers @ Twins

I know a lot of people figured the division was over about a month ago, with the Twins losing Glenn Perkins and Justin Morneau for the year. But I have watched this tigers team all year, they arent very good. They are carried by 1b Miguel Cabrera, stud starter Justin Verlander, and for about 4 months, staring pitcher Edwin Jackson. About 4-6 weeks ago, Jackson's arm seemed to fall off. His ERA has gone up over a run, he is getting shelled by opposing hitters, and the Tigers just stopped scoring.
I was at the Metrodome about 3 weeks ago and saw the power of that place. The Tigers LF lost a ball in the lights after the Tigers left 10 runners on thru 5, and the Twins cut the lead down to 3 games, from the 7 or 8 it was about a month ago.
Then the Twins went to Detroit, needing a 3-1 series victory in the 4 game set, for a tie. Well, they won the first game, lost the next two, but salved a tie by winning game 4.
The tigers then stay ar home, vs the chisox, and lose the first two, pretty easily actually. All the while Minnesota is sweeping KC and Zack Greinke at home. So all the Tigers needed was 2 wins or a Twins loss in either of those series, they got neither.
Now the Tigers come to Minnesota in the 3rd one-game playoff in the last 3 series, and the second straight involving the Twins. Last year Minnesota went into Chicago and was shutout.
That wont happen again. In potentially the last Metrodome game ever, I expect a Twins win and will be utterly shocked if they do not come thru. Starters are Scott Baker for the Twins and 20 year old Rick Porcello for the Tigers. Not too worried about either of them, though clearly Porcello is a long term stud whereas Baker is a #3 starter at best. None of that matters much. the Twins hit, the tigers don't. The Twins win at home, the Tigers do not win on the road.
Of course anything can happen, hopefull ythe Twins dont come out flat, but I will be beyond shocked if they lose this home game. It sure seems like destiny to me..