1st place. Cleveland Indians (90-72)
Cleveland had nothing but bad luck last year, in the rotation, in the bullpen, and all over the lineup. Things will change this season however, as a revamped rotation and pen, along with a healthy lineup, win the Central for the 2nd time in 3 years. Pretty much everything went wrong last year for the Tribe's starters, save for lefty Cliff Lee (22-3, 2.54 era, 1.11 whip) who finally realized his potential and then some. Fausto Carmona (8-7, 5.44 era) won 19 games in 2007 but injuries and control problems plagued him the entire year. Management gave up early on for the club, and dealt CC Sabathia to the Brewers for top prospect, OF Matt Laporta. Due mainly to injuries to swithc-hitting catcher Victor Martinez (278 ba, 2 hrs, 35 rbis), a career 300 hitter with power from both sides of the plate, and DH Travis Hafner (195 ba,. 5 hrs), who has averaged 30+ hrs and 100 rbis for the last 4 years, the club flopped. Keep in mind this team was 1 game from the World Series in 2007 but could not close out Boston even with a 3-1 lead after 4 games. So to say they werent far off from winning it all is no stretch.
Gone is the worst closer in baseball who started last year out with a 7+ era before being released. Also replaced is fill-in closer Jensen Lewis (0-4, 3.82 era) whom the club never felt was a long term option in that role. Newcomer Kerry Wood (34 saves, 84 k/66.2 ip) will help the team win the division by moving one of 2007's best pens back into their original roles. As long as Wood stays healthy, the pen should not be a problem.
The team added Carl Pavano, who hasnt been healthy in years, but as a number 5 starter should be fine and serve the team well. If mideason acquisition Anthony Reyes (2.74 era, 4-2) can fulfill his expectations and continue his improvement, and if former prospect lefty Jeremy Sowers can be at least average, then the club will improve dramatically. And as long as Hafner and Martinez are healthy, this team should once again have a top 5 offense. Whether they win the division or not rests on the health of those two men alone.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Monday, January 26, 2009
AL West Preview part 2
3rd place. Texas Rangers (83-79)
I will revisit this 3rd place prediction if the Rangers sign Ben Sheets (3.09 era, 1.15 whip, 198.1 IP), but as of now I will assess them based upon the team they have. The Rangers won 79 games last year and had the feelgood story in all of baseball. Josh Hamilton played gold glove caliber defense, has a top tier arm, and of course, pounded the ball (304 ba, 32 hrs, 130 rbis). They also had one of the best hitting second baseman in the majors in Ian Kinsler (319 BA, 102 runs, 26 sbs), who had awesome numbers even though he missed the last quarter of the year with a sports hernia. The Rangers did lose a big bat in Milton Bradley (321 ba, 436 obp, 22 hrs), but he will be replaced by a top tier minor league talent in Nelson Cruz, who the Rangers will bat cleanup and believe should hit 25+hrs in his first full year. The Rangers minor leagues are loaded, and Chris Davis(285 ba, 17 hrs) will have his first full season at first base and should be good for 30 homers himself. Michael Young has moved from SS to 3b to make way for top prospect Elvis Andrus, a plus defender in the minors, and the Rangers infield defense should be better this year than last. Hank Blalock (287 ba, 12 hrs, 65 games) will shift to DH and, if he can stay healthy, should be a major bat. As usual though, their season will come down to their starters and pen. The Rangers have veteran mediocre starters in Kevin Millwood (9-10, 5.07 era) and Vicente Padilla (14-8 , 4.74 era), along with youngsters Matt Harrison (9-3, 5.49 era) and Scott Feldman (6-8, 5.29 era). Due to the hitters park they pitch in and the heat of Texas summers, Rangers starters are generally 5-6 inning guys, at most, so the bullpen is always a major factor for the team. The Rangers expect their pen to be a lot stronger this year for several reasons. The young pen has another year under their belts, and a few of the relievers seem to have turned a corner towards the end of last year. Righty Frank Francisco (3.13 era, 1.15 whip 83k's in 63 ip) will probably take over closer duties very early in the year, if not in spring training, unless lefty 2008 closer CJ Wilson can regain some ability to get hitters out (268 baa, 31 er/ 46 ip). Joaquin Benoit is very good at striking batters out 43k's, 45 ip) but his command offsets that (35 walks). So once again, the Rangers should have a top 3 offense and bottom 5 staff but the full seasons by Blalock, Davis, and Kinsler should translate to a few more wins, and the AAA talent will be called upby september, putting Texas in line for a huge 2010.
4th place, Seattle Mariners (64-98)
Its a shame such a beautiful city and baseball stadium are occupied by such an incredibly weak offense. The Mariners lost their most productive hitter, Raul Ibanez (293 ba, 23 hrs, 110 rbis), to the Phillies, and replaced him with Wladimir Balentin, a career 207 hitter with 8 hrs in 246 career AB's. They added Franklin Gutierrez (248 ba, 8 hrs) from the Indians to play CF, but to expect even 200 rbis out of this outfield, which includes an off year Ichiro (311 ba, 361 obp) in right, could be a stretch. With limited power, an inability to get on base, and almost no track record, this outfield could be the majors least productive, by far. The infield isnt much better, Adrian Beltre (327 obp, 25 hrs. 77 rbis) still has a great glove and arm, but it's clear he will never realize what the Mariners expected when they signed him to the monster deal prior to the 2005 season. Good news comes from second baseman Jose Lopez (297 ba, 17 hrs, 89rbis, 80 runs) who had a breakout year, but the same cannot be said of SS Yuniesky Betancourt (300 obp, 7 hrs) who was completely and utterly unproductive at the plate. The Mariners are a sure bet to score the least runs in the AL this season, which puts immense pressure on a staff with talent in a few starters, but nobody to finish games. Once again anchored by immensley talented but always mercurial and moody righty Felix Hernandez (9-11. 3.45era, 1.39 whip). This could be the breakout year the team expects, as Hernandez has the ability to be an All Star for the next decade. His inability to control his emotions leads to far too many multi-hit innings however, and he has to fix that for this team to have a remote chance to finish near 75 wins. Similarly talented but oft-injured lefty Erik Bedard (6-4, 3.67era, 72 ks/81 ip) closes out what could be as good a 1-2 punch as the AL has. Bedard has one season above 30 starts and is a good bet to be hurt again. If healthy there are very few lefties as talented in the league. Young righty Brandon Morrow (3.34 era, 75k/64 ip) could be the biggest bright spot on the team though, and has the talent to give the Mariners yet another possible number one starter. The bullpen could be a problem, losing JJ Putz (55 saves since 2007, 337 ks/ 322 ip career), and replacing him with, gulp, Aaron Heilman (3-8, 5.21 era with the Mets in 08). Heilman has never shown himself to have the mentality to close games, and Putz was made to close games, and also the clubhouse leader. If/when Heilman falters, Mark Lowe could be ready to fulfill his pre-injury potential (1.93 era, 20ks/18 ip in 2006). Save for Lowe, the team has no other option to replace Heilman if a problem should arise. So the top of the rotation may have to throw an awful lot of complete games if they intend to win. The problem is, with Hernandez' pitch count and Bedard's health, complete games will come rarely from this staff. The Mariners need to figure out an identity, and they are miles away from being a .500 team, this is going to be a tough year.
I will revisit this 3rd place prediction if the Rangers sign Ben Sheets (3.09 era, 1.15 whip, 198.1 IP), but as of now I will assess them based upon the team they have. The Rangers won 79 games last year and had the feelgood story in all of baseball. Josh Hamilton played gold glove caliber defense, has a top tier arm, and of course, pounded the ball (304 ba, 32 hrs, 130 rbis). They also had one of the best hitting second baseman in the majors in Ian Kinsler (319 BA, 102 runs, 26 sbs), who had awesome numbers even though he missed the last quarter of the year with a sports hernia. The Rangers did lose a big bat in Milton Bradley (321 ba, 436 obp, 22 hrs), but he will be replaced by a top tier minor league talent in Nelson Cruz, who the Rangers will bat cleanup and believe should hit 25+hrs in his first full year. The Rangers minor leagues are loaded, and Chris Davis(285 ba, 17 hrs) will have his first full season at first base and should be good for 30 homers himself. Michael Young has moved from SS to 3b to make way for top prospect Elvis Andrus, a plus defender in the minors, and the Rangers infield defense should be better this year than last. Hank Blalock (287 ba, 12 hrs, 65 games) will shift to DH and, if he can stay healthy, should be a major bat. As usual though, their season will come down to their starters and pen. The Rangers have veteran mediocre starters in Kevin Millwood (9-10, 5.07 era) and Vicente Padilla (14-8 , 4.74 era), along with youngsters Matt Harrison (9-3, 5.49 era) and Scott Feldman (6-8, 5.29 era). Due to the hitters park they pitch in and the heat of Texas summers, Rangers starters are generally 5-6 inning guys, at most, so the bullpen is always a major factor for the team. The Rangers expect their pen to be a lot stronger this year for several reasons. The young pen has another year under their belts, and a few of the relievers seem to have turned a corner towards the end of last year. Righty Frank Francisco (3.13 era, 1.15 whip 83k's in 63 ip) will probably take over closer duties very early in the year, if not in spring training, unless lefty 2008 closer CJ Wilson can regain some ability to get hitters out (268 baa, 31 er/ 46 ip). Joaquin Benoit is very good at striking batters out 43k's, 45 ip) but his command offsets that (35 walks). So once again, the Rangers should have a top 3 offense and bottom 5 staff but the full seasons by Blalock, Davis, and Kinsler should translate to a few more wins, and the AAA talent will be called upby september, putting Texas in line for a huge 2010.
4th place, Seattle Mariners (64-98)
Its a shame such a beautiful city and baseball stadium are occupied by such an incredibly weak offense. The Mariners lost their most productive hitter, Raul Ibanez (293 ba, 23 hrs, 110 rbis), to the Phillies, and replaced him with Wladimir Balentin, a career 207 hitter with 8 hrs in 246 career AB's. They added Franklin Gutierrez (248 ba, 8 hrs) from the Indians to play CF, but to expect even 200 rbis out of this outfield, which includes an off year Ichiro (311 ba, 361 obp) in right, could be a stretch. With limited power, an inability to get on base, and almost no track record, this outfield could be the majors least productive, by far. The infield isnt much better, Adrian Beltre (327 obp, 25 hrs. 77 rbis) still has a great glove and arm, but it's clear he will never realize what the Mariners expected when they signed him to the monster deal prior to the 2005 season. Good news comes from second baseman Jose Lopez (297 ba, 17 hrs, 89rbis, 80 runs) who had a breakout year, but the same cannot be said of SS Yuniesky Betancourt (300 obp, 7 hrs) who was completely and utterly unproductive at the plate. The Mariners are a sure bet to score the least runs in the AL this season, which puts immense pressure on a staff with talent in a few starters, but nobody to finish games. Once again anchored by immensley talented but always mercurial and moody righty Felix Hernandez (9-11. 3.45era, 1.39 whip). This could be the breakout year the team expects, as Hernandez has the ability to be an All Star for the next decade. His inability to control his emotions leads to far too many multi-hit innings however, and he has to fix that for this team to have a remote chance to finish near 75 wins. Similarly talented but oft-injured lefty Erik Bedard (6-4, 3.67era, 72 ks/81 ip) closes out what could be as good a 1-2 punch as the AL has. Bedard has one season above 30 starts and is a good bet to be hurt again. If healthy there are very few lefties as talented in the league. Young righty Brandon Morrow (3.34 era, 75k/64 ip) could be the biggest bright spot on the team though, and has the talent to give the Mariners yet another possible number one starter. The bullpen could be a problem, losing JJ Putz (55 saves since 2007, 337 ks/ 322 ip career), and replacing him with, gulp, Aaron Heilman (3-8, 5.21 era with the Mets in 08). Heilman has never shown himself to have the mentality to close games, and Putz was made to close games, and also the clubhouse leader. If/when Heilman falters, Mark Lowe could be ready to fulfill his pre-injury potential (1.93 era, 20ks/18 ip in 2006). Save for Lowe, the team has no other option to replace Heilman if a problem should arise. So the top of the rotation may have to throw an awful lot of complete games if they intend to win. The problem is, with Hernandez' pitch count and Bedard's health, complete games will come rarely from this staff. The Mariners need to figure out an identity, and they are miles away from being a .500 team, this is going to be a tough year.
Sunday, January 25, 2009
AL West Preview
1st place. Oakland A's. (90-70).
I am fully aware that this is a big limb to go out onto, given the success of the Angels, however, Oakland added some huge bats this winter: Matt Holliday (in a trade from Colorado), Jason Giambi (Free Agency), and assuming he comes back healthy (if there is such a thing with him) Eric Chavez. Their starters have nothing but upside. A solid top of the rotation with Justin Duchscherer (2.54 era. 1,00 whip), a quality and improving 25 year old lefty in Dana Eveland (if he cuts down on his walks), and 23 year old Sean Gallagher (54 k's in 56.2 innings). The team has a top tier middle infield defensively with Mark Ellis and Bobby Crosby, possibly the best fielding 3b of the last 20 years in Chavez, and an outfield that is at least above average in Center (Ryan Sweeney) and Right (Travis Buck). The additions of Holliday and Giambi give them the first lefty-righty combo in the middle of their lineup since 2001, when Giambi and Miguel Tejada were in town. The bullpen is unarguably top 5 in the AL, as it is every year, with Brad Ziegler (7 er, 59.2 ip, 1.16 whip), followed by Santiago Casilla, Joey Devine, and Jerry Blevins. The team did lose Huston Street in the Holliday trade but he was not longer as effective as in years past and the emergence of Ziegler made Street very available. The A's were last in the Al in batting average, hits, doubles, RBI's, OBP, and slugging, and near the bottom in everything else. But the additions of high OBP guys like Giambi and Holliday will no doubt move the A's near the middle of the pack offensively so the key is the young pitchers emergence, which I expect to happen from any 2 of their young starters.
2nd place. Los Angeles Angels (88-74)
The Angels window may have shut last year, they added Mark Teixera (54 games, 409 OBP, 13 hrs, 43 RBI's, and a 368 BA) for the stretch run, had the all time single season saves leader in Francisco Rodriguez (62 saves), both of whom have left for New York (Yankees and Mets, respectively). The loss of Teixera leaves a huge hole in front of Vlad Guerrero (363 OBP, 27 hrs), whose best years are in the rear view mirror. The team chose not to resign career Angel Garrett Anderson, and while he was not what he used to be, he was certainly a quality lefty. In his place, Juan Rivera (246 BA, 12 hrs) will try to stay healthy for an entire year, something that is fairly unlikely. Guerrero should be a full time DH at this point, he has trouble getting to any balls over his head and often lets balls go under his glove as well. Rob Quinlan replaces Texiera at first and, while a good fielder, Quinlan isnt in Texiera's league in any facet of the game. The teams closer becomes FA signee Brian Fuentes, who is generally as consistent as the 2008 Dow Jones industrial Average. The Angels still have the best starters in the west, with John Lackey (12-5, 1.23 whip), and Ervin Santana (16-7, 1.12 whip), but Joe Saunders will almost certainly fall off after his all star year in 08. The Angels made no offseason moves or upgrades at any position so its very hard to see them winning 100 games again. A division title is very very possible, but the team has very little offense once again, though that hasn't stopped them in the past.
I am fully aware that this is a big limb to go out onto, given the success of the Angels, however, Oakland added some huge bats this winter: Matt Holliday (in a trade from Colorado), Jason Giambi (Free Agency), and assuming he comes back healthy (if there is such a thing with him) Eric Chavez. Their starters have nothing but upside. A solid top of the rotation with Justin Duchscherer (2.54 era. 1,00 whip), a quality and improving 25 year old lefty in Dana Eveland (if he cuts down on his walks), and 23 year old Sean Gallagher (54 k's in 56.2 innings). The team has a top tier middle infield defensively with Mark Ellis and Bobby Crosby, possibly the best fielding 3b of the last 20 years in Chavez, and an outfield that is at least above average in Center (Ryan Sweeney) and Right (Travis Buck). The additions of Holliday and Giambi give them the first lefty-righty combo in the middle of their lineup since 2001, when Giambi and Miguel Tejada were in town. The bullpen is unarguably top 5 in the AL, as it is every year, with Brad Ziegler (7 er, 59.2 ip, 1.16 whip), followed by Santiago Casilla, Joey Devine, and Jerry Blevins. The team did lose Huston Street in the Holliday trade but he was not longer as effective as in years past and the emergence of Ziegler made Street very available. The A's were last in the Al in batting average, hits, doubles, RBI's, OBP, and slugging, and near the bottom in everything else. But the additions of high OBP guys like Giambi and Holliday will no doubt move the A's near the middle of the pack offensively so the key is the young pitchers emergence, which I expect to happen from any 2 of their young starters.
2nd place. Los Angeles Angels (88-74)
The Angels window may have shut last year, they added Mark Teixera (54 games, 409 OBP, 13 hrs, 43 RBI's, and a 368 BA) for the stretch run, had the all time single season saves leader in Francisco Rodriguez (62 saves), both of whom have left for New York (Yankees and Mets, respectively). The loss of Teixera leaves a huge hole in front of Vlad Guerrero (363 OBP, 27 hrs), whose best years are in the rear view mirror. The team chose not to resign career Angel Garrett Anderson, and while he was not what he used to be, he was certainly a quality lefty. In his place, Juan Rivera (246 BA, 12 hrs) will try to stay healthy for an entire year, something that is fairly unlikely. Guerrero should be a full time DH at this point, he has trouble getting to any balls over his head and often lets balls go under his glove as well. Rob Quinlan replaces Texiera at first and, while a good fielder, Quinlan isnt in Texiera's league in any facet of the game. The teams closer becomes FA signee Brian Fuentes, who is generally as consistent as the 2008 Dow Jones industrial Average. The Angels still have the best starters in the west, with John Lackey (12-5, 1.23 whip), and Ervin Santana (16-7, 1.12 whip), but Joe Saunders will almost certainly fall off after his all star year in 08. The Angels made no offseason moves or upgrades at any position so its very hard to see them winning 100 games again. A division title is very very possible, but the team has very little offense once again, though that hasn't stopped them in the past.
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Baseball daily, first post
When you are a lifelong Texas Rangers fan, it's nearly pointless to have expectations of any sort, other than annual third place finishes (save for the 1996-2000 run of first round playoff exits).
So over the last decade, with the help of DirecTV, I've become a fan of other teams in addition to my hometown losers. Being self employed affords me the ability to watch games almost everday, and being on the west coast helps too. Early games generally start at 4pm on weekdays, and Dodgers, Giants, Dbacks, Mariners, Padres, Angels, A's, and Rockies games follow at least 2 hours later. There are also the monday morning and thursday afternoon getaway games, along with various other weekday games, every team has them, especially, and of course, Wrigley Field.
As a fantasy baseball player, I learned very early on that biases are of no benefit at all, so I try fairly hard to take away any favoritism or distaste when evaluating players and teams.
Watching so many games allows me to see things that do not show up in box scores: Chemistry, moving runners over, a speedy runner on first taking away the pitchers concentration or forcing him to throw less breaking balls, etc.
My goal is to show readers a few things: up and coming players, teams who seem to be gelling (as well as those who seem to have no ability to gel at all, see: Tigers, Detroit, 2008), roster moves and injuries, boneheaded managerial moves, as well as great managers (Gardenhire, Maddon, anyone not named Dusty Baker), and of course, statistical projections for fantasy purposes.
I will try to blog everyday, maybe not covering every game, but at many points covering every single team and probably just about every single starter or contriubtor for every team. Starting tomorrow I will evaluate the Angels and A's, and I will project 2 teams everyday for the next 2+ weeks. Comments are appreciated. thanks!
So over the last decade, with the help of DirecTV, I've become a fan of other teams in addition to my hometown losers. Being self employed affords me the ability to watch games almost everday, and being on the west coast helps too. Early games generally start at 4pm on weekdays, and Dodgers, Giants, Dbacks, Mariners, Padres, Angels, A's, and Rockies games follow at least 2 hours later. There are also the monday morning and thursday afternoon getaway games, along with various other weekday games, every team has them, especially, and of course, Wrigley Field.
As a fantasy baseball player, I learned very early on that biases are of no benefit at all, so I try fairly hard to take away any favoritism or distaste when evaluating players and teams.
Watching so many games allows me to see things that do not show up in box scores: Chemistry, moving runners over, a speedy runner on first taking away the pitchers concentration or forcing him to throw less breaking balls, etc.
My goal is to show readers a few things: up and coming players, teams who seem to be gelling (as well as those who seem to have no ability to gel at all, see: Tigers, Detroit, 2008), roster moves and injuries, boneheaded managerial moves, as well as great managers (Gardenhire, Maddon, anyone not named Dusty Baker), and of course, statistical projections for fantasy purposes.
I will try to blog everyday, maybe not covering every game, but at many points covering every single team and probably just about every single starter or contriubtor for every team. Starting tomorrow I will evaluate the Angels and A's, and I will project 2 teams everyday for the next 2+ weeks. Comments are appreciated. thanks!
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