1st place: LA Angels (85-77)
keys to success: Ervin Santana, Joel Pineiro, Scott Kazmir
With the loss of team ace John Lackey, a workhorse for nearly a decade, the onus falls on Jered Weaver to fill his shoes. I really have little doubt he will, therefor the onus has moved. I think the new acquisition of Pineiro is huge. Was his 2009 STL season a fluke? Did he turn the corner? Was it Dave Duncan's stewardship? I would be shocked if he wins 16+ games this year, and doubly shocked if he maintains an ERA under 4. But he will be solid, and probably not a problem. Scott Kazmir is another story. At this point it is very difficult to know which Kazmir will show up. He has gotten progressively worse each year in the majors, his fastball is losing movement and speed, and his walks are not declining. Perhaps a full year out of the Yanks/Redsox division will help, perhaps not. Also, Ervin Santana is coming off a dismal year, although we know he was not healthy, he will need to bounce back for them to win it this year.
The bullpen added Fernando Rodney from Detroit, and he is not bad, but the end of game situations with Brian Fuentes and Rodney is going to have some ups and downs, no doubt.
The offense will be fine, probably third best in the AL again, and getting better. They lost Vlad Guerrero, but the addition of Hideki Matsui will mitigate that subtraction. A bigger hole to fill is 3b Chone Figgins, the gold-glove caliber leadoff hitter who steals bases, ignites rallies, lays down bunts, and pretty much does it all. Will Brandon Wood be able to handle the hot corner? This division should be tight, but the Angels have the experience and less healthy issues than the Rangers, so they should end on top.
2. Texas Rangers (81-81)
keys to success: LF Josh Hamilton, DH Vlad Guerrero, SP Rich Harden.
The Rangers paid Harden $10 million dollars, coming off his worst year, a 4+ ERA season in the NL. Will he ever be healthy? Will he ever pitch 200 innings? Will he ever fulfill the promise that made everyone think he was the next stud starter? Probably not, and this is going to be a problem for the Rangers. When you sign an ace and have your fingers crossed that he will even be available to make 25 starts, you are in trouble before it even begins.
The two best hitters on the team, Hamilton and Guerrero, may not even combine to play 220 games (they did not last year), and that's two more question marks for the team. The Rangers have a fantastic minor leagues, they have two of baseball's biggest prospects in lefty Derek Holland and righty Neftali Feliz, and I suppose those two could step up and fill the void that will invariably follow Hardens mid-May (or sooner) injury. The Rangers rotation in 2009 was suprisingly solid , carrying a fairly mediocre offense for most of the year. The three big keys to their 09 success were defense (top 5 in the majors and improving with the move from CF to LF for Hamilton and the maturity of top tier SS Elvis Andrus), bullpen (the Rangers got major contributions from CJ Wilson, Franky Francisco, Darren O'Day, and Feliz), and simply cutting down on walks. The Rangers pitchers trimmed over a walk per game off their ledger and this allowed them to go deeper into games, averaging almost an inning more per start than in 08 (which also saved the pen). The Rangers could surely win the division, but they will need their best players to stay healthy, something neither Hamilton or Harden have done even once in their careers.
3. Seattle Mariners (79-83)
keys to success: bullpen, 3rd,4th,5ht starters
Well, we know they cannot hit, and that won't change much for 2010. They have a great top 2 in the order in Ichiro and Figgins, a solid #3 in Franklin Gutierrez, and a pretty giant question-mark in DH/dickhead Milton Bradley. They will have 5 other spots (6 when Bradley gets hurt or cut from the team for killing a fan in late June) that will produce very little. This is all fine and dandy if the bullpen is as good as last year, when it was possibly the best in baseball, but if David Aardsma falls off, and we have no idea what to expect, they are in trouble.
The M's have the two best pitchers in the AL in righty Felix Hernandez and lefty Cliff Lee, but they have nothing after that, literally nothing. So again, it will be up to baseball's best defense (with 4 or 5 potential gold glovers) to save runs where they can. The Mariners were a 500 team last year even though they were outscored by 50 runs, this was due to a single reason, defense. Their defense was led by the best CF in the game in Gutierrez, the best RF in the game in Ichiro, the best SS in the game in Jack Wilson. They added Chone Figgins and moved him to 2b, added Casey Kotchman at 1b, and moved Jose Lopez to 3b. There is no reason to think the defense will be anything but the best again. And it will have to be, because there's is one of the worst offenses, if not the worst (outside of KC), in the American League. I will be very suprised if they win the division.
4. Oakland A's (77-85)
keys to success: healthy pitching staff
Well, the A's found a little bit of pocket change and used it on Ben Sheets, basically a slightly older version of Rich Harden. He will probably be hurt sooner or later, and if he isn't , he will be dealt. The A's have some of the best young pitching in baseball with starters Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill. They have a great young closer in Andrew Bailey, and the rest of their pen is loaded with great spot relievers. The problem is they are an NL team playing in the AL. They just cant score runs. They do not have a single plus offensive player anywhere on the roster. They have a great defensive outfield, loaded with speed, with Rajai Davis, Coco Crisp, and Ryan Sweeney, but none of those guys will drive in 80 runs or hit 300. They will need to steal bases, and Davis and Crisp should be up to the task. Davis may need to steal 80 to give them a shot at 500.
Cliff Pennington is a solid glove but a zero bat, same with 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, and the team is just flat out boring. No homer threat, no doubles threat, no fans at the park. They will need to relocate the team to have a shot at future success, plain and simple.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Monday, March 29, 2010
2010 NL West Preview
1. Colorado Rockies (88-74):
Keys to the team: closer Huston Street, starter Jeff Francis
Easily the most talented team in the division, as far as youth goes, the 2009 Rockies jelled in june/july and didnt stop until the playoffs. Now, with a season under their belts, outfielders Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez will form 2/3 of the NL's best defensive OF. Thats 2 centerfielders by the way, covering the massive yard that is Coors Field. While Brad Hawpe in right is nothing to brag about defensively, a healthy 2010 should put him back at his usual 25+ hr's and 100+ RBI's.
Huston Street will start the year on the DL, but righty Rafael Betancourt and lefty Franklin Morales should be able to handle the short term load. If Street is out for a while, then this will be a problem.
They already have the best defensive SS in the NL, Troy Tulowitzki, and it can now be argued that he is not too far back of Florida's Hanley Ramirez as the top hitting middle infielder as well. First base is manned, as always, by Todd Helton, who has a more than solid glove and has put together great AB's for a decade and a half.
Ian Stewart at third is a very exciting prospect as well, and if he falters, Melvin Mora is not the worst fill-in you could find.
Regardless, and as always, the division title hopes for Colorado will come down to pitching. The Rockies believe, and I concur, that they have finally found an ace in righty flamethrower Ubaldo Jimenez. Look for Aaron Cook to have a healthy, bounce back year as well. Lefty Jeff Francis is coming off of surgery but is another huge addition, as he has long been their best pitcher, prior to 2009. The division will be close, but the Rockies hitting is far better than anyone else's, and their pitching has finally caught up to San Francisco's. This pick is far from a lock, but should hold if the pitching stays healthy.
2. LA Dodgers (86-76):
keys to the team: starters Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw, bullpen health, 1b James Loney.
The best bullpen in baseball is back and it had better be on top of its game because the starters are not going to give the Dodgers the innings they would like. Chad Billingsley usually breaks down, or close to it, near the all star break, and fills his second half box scores with 5.1 innings pitched per game. 21 year old lefty Clayton Kershaw throws a lot of pitches to get his outs, especially on the road, and lord knows what Vicente Padilla will give the team. Hideki Kuroda is a solid 4, but his stamina has always been a question mark, and he rarely goes past 6. So the pen will again be asked to give a ton of innings, and as we saw last year in sept/oct, they broke down.
The offense and defense should be fine. They have arguably the best CF in the NL, if not baseball, in young stud Matt Kemp. He should have another year that is better than his last, as he always does. RF Andre Ethier will again knock 25+ jacks and have a 400 OBP, and is fast becoming one of the best clutch hitters in baseball. LF Manny Ramirez is now 38 years old, and his defense is already porous. He is in a free agent year and its damn near impossible to guess what he will give the team.
1b James Loney will need to bounce back and show some power for this team to win the division, and he has yet to do so. New 2b Blake Dewitt will finally get his chance to play everyday and he is a giant question mark as well.
3. San Francisco Giants 83-79
keys to the team: closer Brian Wilson, reliever Jeremy Affeldt, 3b Pablo Sandoval.
Obviously the Giants have the best pitcher in baseball, by a mile, in 2x Cy Young winner TIm Lincecum. I did not list him as a key because I assume he will be healthy, and he has given no indication otherwise. So, assuming Matt Cain, Lincecum, Barry Zito, and Jonathan Sanchez are healthy, the team has as good pitching as anyone in the NL. They had an incredible record in one-run games last year, and that will be very hard to keep up. The bullpen was a strength, for the first time in a long time, and it has to be again, because the offense is really bad.
The Giants dont steal bases, they dont work counts, they swing at everything and they dont walk. This seems to work well for Sandoval, the fattish 3b who hits doubles off his shoetops and homers from both sides of the plate on pitches near his eyeballs, but the rest of the team follows his lead and they dont have the talent to do so. The addition of utility infielder/ LF Mark Derosa will help a bit, but the problem is still the fact that the Giants get nothing out of CF Aaron Rowand, SS Edgar Renteria, and probably whoever plays 1b (presumably Aubrey Huff, who sucks) and RF (Nate Schierholz, who is mediocre) as well. If they can get production out of one other infield spot besides 3b, and if the outfield surpasses last year's dismal production, the division is within reach.
Closer Wilson gets a lot of crap, mostly because he seems like a toolbox, but he is solid and effective. A bigger key is set-up man Affeldt, who had an incredible career year in 2009 and needs to repeat it for the Giants to get closer to 90 wins.
It is possible they win the division, but the wild card is more likely. If I had to pick, I would say neither.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (78-84)
keys to the team: starters Brandon Webb and Ian Kennedy, bullpen.
Possibly the hardest team to predict in baseball, the Diamondbacks had a huge offseason. They added enigmatic yet supremely talented lefty 2b Kelly Johnson, signed 1b Adam LaRoche, and dealt for starters Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy. If everything falls into place, this team could win the division as well.
Last year's D-Backs had one of the worst defenses I have ever seen. They had below average fielders at every infield position, had an awful bullpen, and had horrible luck with starting pitching. They will need Brandon Webb back to win this division. He is starting the year on the DL, and I am not sure if this is a huge deal , but it is clearly cause for concern. RF Justin Upton is a stud, capable of 40+ HR's and capable of throwing runners out from 300 feet. CF Chris Young has always had the potential to be a gold glove, 30/30 threat, but he had an awful 2009. LF Conor Jackson is coming back from pneumonia and is a question mark, though his production is not essential to the team. Moving Miguel Montero into the starting catchers spot should add a lot of offense, as the switch-hitter is a significant upgrade from Chris Snyder, who was dismal.
The bullpen is a mixture of journeymen, castoffs, and garbage. Aaron Heilman is garbage, Chad Qualls should be a set-up man, Bob Howry is mediocre at best, and Clay Zavada has a nice moustache but I don't know if that qualifies him to close just yet. Though we have seen in the past a nice stache does seem necessary for end-of-game success (see: Gossage, Goose, and Fingers, Rollie). The bullpen will most likely be the teams downfall, though luckily they have Haren and Jackson , and hopefully Webb, to give them 7 innings per start.
5. San Diego Padres (68-84)
keys to the team: starter Chris Young, LF Kyle Blanks.
There are no two ways about it, the Padres are going to be bad. They will be in last place. They probably won't win 70 games. There is light at the end of the tunnel I suppose, with a lot of young prospects getting the chance to play daily. It will be painful, but it could pay off long-term, especially when (not if) the team deals All-Star 1b Adrian Gonzalez. The team dumped 3b Kevin Kouzmanoff, which is a good move because he is a GIDP machine. They will start Chase Headley, so the former prospect will get his shot to play his natural position everyday, finally. LF Kyle Blanks, a monstrous 6 foot 8 , 280 pounder and RF Will Venable will get this shots too, and should be solid players, if not better.
The team has one above average starter, righty Chris Young, and he will need to stay healthy for the team to avoid 90 losses. Mediocre righties Kevin Corriea and Jon Garland can be expected to give the teams innings, but they are contact pitchers who average 4-5 strikeouts per game, so don't expect much from either.
Closer Heath Bell is a top tier finisher but he will probably be dealt as well. This team has no chance to do anything now, or in the next 2 years either.
Keys to the team: closer Huston Street, starter Jeff Francis
Easily the most talented team in the division, as far as youth goes, the 2009 Rockies jelled in june/july and didnt stop until the playoffs. Now, with a season under their belts, outfielders Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez will form 2/3 of the NL's best defensive OF. Thats 2 centerfielders by the way, covering the massive yard that is Coors Field. While Brad Hawpe in right is nothing to brag about defensively, a healthy 2010 should put him back at his usual 25+ hr's and 100+ RBI's.
Huston Street will start the year on the DL, but righty Rafael Betancourt and lefty Franklin Morales should be able to handle the short term load. If Street is out for a while, then this will be a problem.
They already have the best defensive SS in the NL, Troy Tulowitzki, and it can now be argued that he is not too far back of Florida's Hanley Ramirez as the top hitting middle infielder as well. First base is manned, as always, by Todd Helton, who has a more than solid glove and has put together great AB's for a decade and a half.
Ian Stewart at third is a very exciting prospect as well, and if he falters, Melvin Mora is not the worst fill-in you could find.
Regardless, and as always, the division title hopes for Colorado will come down to pitching. The Rockies believe, and I concur, that they have finally found an ace in righty flamethrower Ubaldo Jimenez. Look for Aaron Cook to have a healthy, bounce back year as well. Lefty Jeff Francis is coming off of surgery but is another huge addition, as he has long been their best pitcher, prior to 2009. The division will be close, but the Rockies hitting is far better than anyone else's, and their pitching has finally caught up to San Francisco's. This pick is far from a lock, but should hold if the pitching stays healthy.
2. LA Dodgers (86-76):
keys to the team: starters Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw, bullpen health, 1b James Loney.
The best bullpen in baseball is back and it had better be on top of its game because the starters are not going to give the Dodgers the innings they would like. Chad Billingsley usually breaks down, or close to it, near the all star break, and fills his second half box scores with 5.1 innings pitched per game. 21 year old lefty Clayton Kershaw throws a lot of pitches to get his outs, especially on the road, and lord knows what Vicente Padilla will give the team. Hideki Kuroda is a solid 4, but his stamina has always been a question mark, and he rarely goes past 6. So the pen will again be asked to give a ton of innings, and as we saw last year in sept/oct, they broke down.
The offense and defense should be fine. They have arguably the best CF in the NL, if not baseball, in young stud Matt Kemp. He should have another year that is better than his last, as he always does. RF Andre Ethier will again knock 25+ jacks and have a 400 OBP, and is fast becoming one of the best clutch hitters in baseball. LF Manny Ramirez is now 38 years old, and his defense is already porous. He is in a free agent year and its damn near impossible to guess what he will give the team.
1b James Loney will need to bounce back and show some power for this team to win the division, and he has yet to do so. New 2b Blake Dewitt will finally get his chance to play everyday and he is a giant question mark as well.
3. San Francisco Giants 83-79
keys to the team: closer Brian Wilson, reliever Jeremy Affeldt, 3b Pablo Sandoval.
Obviously the Giants have the best pitcher in baseball, by a mile, in 2x Cy Young winner TIm Lincecum. I did not list him as a key because I assume he will be healthy, and he has given no indication otherwise. So, assuming Matt Cain, Lincecum, Barry Zito, and Jonathan Sanchez are healthy, the team has as good pitching as anyone in the NL. They had an incredible record in one-run games last year, and that will be very hard to keep up. The bullpen was a strength, for the first time in a long time, and it has to be again, because the offense is really bad.
The Giants dont steal bases, they dont work counts, they swing at everything and they dont walk. This seems to work well for Sandoval, the fattish 3b who hits doubles off his shoetops and homers from both sides of the plate on pitches near his eyeballs, but the rest of the team follows his lead and they dont have the talent to do so. The addition of utility infielder/ LF Mark Derosa will help a bit, but the problem is still the fact that the Giants get nothing out of CF Aaron Rowand, SS Edgar Renteria, and probably whoever plays 1b (presumably Aubrey Huff, who sucks) and RF (Nate Schierholz, who is mediocre) as well. If they can get production out of one other infield spot besides 3b, and if the outfield surpasses last year's dismal production, the division is within reach.
Closer Wilson gets a lot of crap, mostly because he seems like a toolbox, but he is solid and effective. A bigger key is set-up man Affeldt, who had an incredible career year in 2009 and needs to repeat it for the Giants to get closer to 90 wins.
It is possible they win the division, but the wild card is more likely. If I had to pick, I would say neither.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (78-84)
keys to the team: starters Brandon Webb and Ian Kennedy, bullpen.
Possibly the hardest team to predict in baseball, the Diamondbacks had a huge offseason. They added enigmatic yet supremely talented lefty 2b Kelly Johnson, signed 1b Adam LaRoche, and dealt for starters Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy. If everything falls into place, this team could win the division as well.
Last year's D-Backs had one of the worst defenses I have ever seen. They had below average fielders at every infield position, had an awful bullpen, and had horrible luck with starting pitching. They will need Brandon Webb back to win this division. He is starting the year on the DL, and I am not sure if this is a huge deal , but it is clearly cause for concern. RF Justin Upton is a stud, capable of 40+ HR's and capable of throwing runners out from 300 feet. CF Chris Young has always had the potential to be a gold glove, 30/30 threat, but he had an awful 2009. LF Conor Jackson is coming back from pneumonia and is a question mark, though his production is not essential to the team. Moving Miguel Montero into the starting catchers spot should add a lot of offense, as the switch-hitter is a significant upgrade from Chris Snyder, who was dismal.
The bullpen is a mixture of journeymen, castoffs, and garbage. Aaron Heilman is garbage, Chad Qualls should be a set-up man, Bob Howry is mediocre at best, and Clay Zavada has a nice moustache but I don't know if that qualifies him to close just yet. Though we have seen in the past a nice stache does seem necessary for end-of-game success (see: Gossage, Goose, and Fingers, Rollie). The bullpen will most likely be the teams downfall, though luckily they have Haren and Jackson , and hopefully Webb, to give them 7 innings per start.
5. San Diego Padres (68-84)
keys to the team: starter Chris Young, LF Kyle Blanks.
There are no two ways about it, the Padres are going to be bad. They will be in last place. They probably won't win 70 games. There is light at the end of the tunnel I suppose, with a lot of young prospects getting the chance to play daily. It will be painful, but it could pay off long-term, especially when (not if) the team deals All-Star 1b Adrian Gonzalez. The team dumped 3b Kevin Kouzmanoff, which is a good move because he is a GIDP machine. They will start Chase Headley, so the former prospect will get his shot to play his natural position everyday, finally. LF Kyle Blanks, a monstrous 6 foot 8 , 280 pounder and RF Will Venable will get this shots too, and should be solid players, if not better.
The team has one above average starter, righty Chris Young, and he will need to stay healthy for the team to avoid 90 losses. Mediocre righties Kevin Corriea and Jon Garland can be expected to give the teams innings, but they are contact pitchers who average 4-5 strikeouts per game, so don't expect much from either.
Closer Heath Bell is a top tier finisher but he will probably be dealt as well. This team has no chance to do anything now, or in the next 2 years either.
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